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UFC Fight Island 3: Whittaker vs Till Odds, Picks & Betting Preview

Cole Shelton

by Cole Shelton in Mixed Martial Arts News

Updated Jul 22, 2020 · 6:54 AM PDT

Robert Whittaker, Darren Till
  • The fourth and final Fight Island event of July goes down on July 25th
  • Former champion, Robert Whittaker returns to battle Darren Till in the main event
  • See the odds, picks, and betting preview for the full UFC Fight Island 3 main card below

The stretch of four events in 15 days on Fight Island will come to an end this Saturday, July 25 for UFC Fight Island 3. The event features 15 fights total and a whopping seven-fight main card.

In the main event, former middleweight champion, Robert Whittaker returns for the first time since losing his belt to take on English superstar, Darren Till. Out of all the Fight Island cards, this was the main event everyone was circling on their calendars as it should be an exciting scrap.

In the co-main event, Shogun Rua and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, aka Lil Nog, have their trilogy bout in which Lil Nog has said is his retirement fight.

UFC Fight Island 3 main card airs live this Saturday, July 25th at 8:00 pm EST on ESPN. The table below shows odds for the entire main card at two different sportsbooks, followed by best bets for the event.

UFC Fight Island 3 Odds

Fighter Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Robert Whittaker -120 -120
Darren Till -110 +100
Fighter Odds Odds
Shogun Rua -190 -180
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +155 +155
Fighter Odds Odds
Fabricio Werdum +265 +285
Alexander Gustafsson -350 -350
Fighter Odds Odds
Carla Esparza +140 +143
Marina Rodriguez -170 -163
Fighter Odds Odds
Paul Craig -115 -115
Gadzhimurad Antigulov -115 -105
Fighter Odds Odds
Alex Oliveira -175 -163
Peter Sobotta +145 +143
Fighter Odds Odds
Khamzat Chimaev -900 -955
Rhys McKee +550 +655

All odds taken July 20th

Whittaker-Till Winner Up for a Title Shot?

Robert Whittaker (20-5) is coming off a second-round KO loss to Israel Adesanya at UFC 243 last October to lose the middleweight title. Before that, “The Reaper” was on a nine-fight winning streak including being 8-0 at 185-pounds before the loss to Adesanya.

The Aussie won the interim title over Yoel Romero at UFC 213 and was later promoted to the undisputed champ following Georges St-Pierre retirement. He would never technically defend the belt as he beat Romero again but the Cuban missed weight making it a non-title bout. In his career, he has notable wins over Jacare Souza, Derek Brunson, and Uriah Hall.


Darren Till (18-2-1) returned to the win column last time out at UFC 244 with a decision win over Kelvin Gastelum in which he was the betting underdog. The fight was his middleweight debut after being submitted by Tyron Woodley for the welterweight title. He was then KO’d by Jorge Masvidal which forced the move up in weight class.

This is such an intriguing matchup, and I believe the pick’em odds with a slight lean towards Whittaker is where it should be. The Aussie is the more proven commodity at middleweight.

YouTube video

Following the loss to Adesanya, he said he was burnt out and took a ton of time off while admitting he would’ve retired if he didn’t get the passion back, which does scare me.

However, I think he returns to the win column with a stoppage win over Till. The Englishman is a dangerous foe, but I believe Whittaker is the more powerful striker and will use his wrestling in this fight to have success on the ground. Once the third and fourth rounds hit, that is where Whittaker will take over as he has the better cardio and earns a TKO win over Till.

Pick: Robert Whittaker (-120)

Whittaker vs Till Key Stats

29 Age 27
6’0″ Height 6’0″
73.5″ Reach 75″
5 UFC finishes 2

Who Wins the Trilogy?

Shogun Rua (26-11-1) is the former UFC light heavyweight champion and is coming off a draw to Paul Craig at UFC Sao Paulo. Before that, he scored a TKO win over Tyson Pedro to get back into the win column after a TKO loss to Anthony Smith.

Rua has won both fights against Nogueira, with the first taking place in PRIDE in 2005 and the other at UFC 191 in 2015. He also has notable wins over Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell, and Lyoto Machida.

YouTube video

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (23-9) is a legend of the sport and one of Brazil’s best. The 44-year-old has said this will be his final fight and is looking to return to the win column after a knockout loss to Ryan Spann back at UFC 237. In his career, he has notable wins over Rashad Evans, Tito Ortiz, Dan Henderson, and twice over Alistair Overeem.

Although this fight doesn’t mean much for the division, many fans are looking forward to as it will be the last time we will see Lil Nog compete. The Brazilian is always a joy to watch, but he is 0-2 against Rua for a reason and I believe he will end his career on a two-fight losing streak.


In the fight, which will be a standup scrap, Rua will land the harder punches and not only win all three fights in the trilogy but finally get the first stoppage win and earn a TKO victory.

Pick: Shogun Rua (-180)

Other UFC Fight Island 3 Picks

  • Alexander Gustafsson (-350): Werdum looked awful in his last fight and Gustafsson should win, but no way you can lay -350 on him.
  • Marian Rodriguez (-163): I think Rodriguez is a future title challenger and she’ll be able to earn a decision win over the former champ here.
  • Paul Craig (-115): Craig only loses to KO artists, which Antigulov is not. Look for him to earn a decision win or perhaps a submission victory.
  • Peter Sobotta (+145): Sobotta hasn’t fought in two years but I think there is a clear way to beat Oliveira and Sobotta will bring the fight to him and get a decision win.
  • Khamzat Chimaev (-900): Chimaev should win in the first or second round, after just fighting last Wednesday for the UFC. But, no way you can bet this fight at these odds.
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