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UFC Vegas 16 Odds, Picks & Betting Preview – Hermansson vs Vettori

Cole Shelton

by Cole Shelton in Mixed Martial Arts

Nov 30, 2020 · 7:43 AM PST

UFC Vegas 16
Jack Hermansson battles Marvin Vettori in the main event of UFC Vegas 16.
  • Jack Hermansson nows faces Marvin Vettori after Darren Till and Kevin Holland were forced to withdraw
  • Undefeated contender, Jamahal Hill gets a step up in competition against Ovince Saint Preux in the co-main event
  • See the odds, picks, and betting preview for the full UFC Vegas 16 main card, below

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 16, which goes down on Saturday, December 5, 2020, from the UFC Apex.

In the main event, top-five middleweight contender Jack Hermansson takes on short-notice replacement Marvin Vettori. The co-main event sees Ovince Saint Preux battle Jamahal Hill.

UFC Vegas 16 airs live on ESPN2 and ESPN+ at 10 PM EST. The table below shows odds for the main card at FanDuel and DraftKings, followed by best bets for the event.

UFC Vegas 16 Main Card Odds

Fighter Odds at FanDuel Odds at DraftKings
Jack Hermansson +116 +110
Marvin Vettori -142 -134
Fighter Odds Odds
Ovince Saint Preux +122 +140
Jamahal Hill -150 -177
Fighter Odds Odds
Talia Santos -188 -225
Montana De La Rosa +152 +175
Fighter Odds Odds
Roman Dolidze -188 -200
John Allan +152 +160
Fighter Odds Odds
Movsar Evloev -500 -590
Nate Landwehr +360 +400

All odds taken Dec. 3

How Will The Change In Opponents Impact Hermansson?

Jack Hermansson has dealt with a roller coaster of a few weeks trying to figure out who he would be fighting on Saturday night. He was originally supposed to fight Darren Till, who was then replaced by Kevin Holland. However, that was not the last change as Holland was replaced by Marvin Vettori.

Hermansson & Vettori Recent Fights

Hermansson
VS
Vettori

Kelvin Gastelum win by submission Fight 1 Karl Roberson, win by submission
Jared Cannonier, loss by TKO Fight 2 Andrew Sanchez, win by decision
Jacare Souza, win by decision Fight 3 Cezar Ferreira, win by decision
David Branch, win by submission Fight 4 Israel Adesanya, loss by split decision

When I spoke to Jack Hermansson when he was supposed to fight Kevin Holland, he said it was a lose-lose scenario, and I feel it is the same way here. Although Vettori is a ranked middleweight, many assume Hermansson will beat him. If he doesn’t, it won’t be a good look for the Swede.

For Vettori, meanwhile, he was supposed to fight Jacare Souza on Dec. 12. So, getting bumped up a week for a bigger fight against Hermansson could be pivotal for his UFC career.

Hermansson vs Vettori Stats

Hermansson
VS
Vettori

32 Age 27
6’1″ Height 6’0″
77.5″ Reach 74″
6 UFC finishes 2

I don’t understand the odds for this one and why Vettori is the favorite. Hermansson has proved himself as a top-five middleweight and proven he can go five hard rounds. Vettori, meanwhile, has not fought the highest level of competition as of late and has yet to go five rounds in his career.

There is no question if the fight hits the mat, it will be Hermansson having a ton of success. However, Vettori has proven he has solid takedown defense, and he is a very good striker. But, I do worry about his cardio for five rounds and the ability to keep Hermansson off him.

Ultimately, I expect Vettori to have success early on. However, Hermansson will eventually get him to the ground and possibly get a submission or just control the fight and win a decision.

Pick: Jack Hermansson (+116)

Will Hill Stay Undefeated?

Jamahal Hill is one of the top light heavyweight prospects and, now gets his toughest test in a perennial contender, Ovince Saint Preux.

Saint Preux & Hill Recent Fights

Saint Preux
VS
Hill

Alonzo Menifield, win by KO Fight 1 Klidson Abreu, win by TKO
Ben Rothwell, loss by split decision Fight 2 Darko Stosic, win by decision
Michal Oleksiejczuk, win by submission Fight 3 Alexander Poppeck, win by decision
Nikita Krylov, loss by submission Fight 4 William Vincent, win by TKO

This is a really intriguing test for Hill as Saint Preux is someone who has improved his striking drastically. Saint Preux’s ground game always has to be a worry for Hill. However, I do think Hill is the real deal and his striking is top-notch.

Early on, I expect them to have a feeling-out process of sorts. But, in the second round, I expect Hill to come out strong and eventually land some heavy shots. Although St. Preux does have a solid chin, I think Hill will connect enough that he will score a second or third-round TKO win.

Pick: Jamahal Hill (-150)

Other UFC Vegas 16 Picks:

  1. Talia Santos (-188): Santos should be able to outstrike De La Rosa for a decision win, however, -225 is way too high of a price to pay for me.
  2. Roman Dolidze (-188): Dolidze is better all around and will eventually land the big shot and wins by TKO.
  3. Movsar Evloev (-500): Evloev should win by stoppage, but at this point, this line is way too high.
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