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2018 NBA Free Agency Odds: Make Way for the King

Ryan Murphy

by Ryan Murphy in NBA Basketball

Updated Jun 20, 2018 · 2:17 PM PDT

LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers
Will he stay, or will he go? The world awaits LeBron’s free agency decision. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) CC License
  • We have the odds on where eight of the NBA’s elite free agents will sign this summer 
  • Will the Rockets open up the vault for Clint Capela?
  • Will Kevin Durant’s next contract be his last? 

One of the most anticlimactic Finals in NBA history is about to give way to one of the most dramatic free agency periods the league has ever witnessed.

Perennial All-Stars LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Paul George, Chris Paul, and DeMarcus Cousins can all enter free agency on Sunday, July 1st, and begin taking meetings and fielding offers promptly at 12:00 a.m. Individually, they have the power to transform a team’s championship odds, but collectively they can transform the landscape of the entire league.

We’ve sifted through all of the scuttlebutt and speculation swirling around the Association and have come up with definitive odds on where eight of the NBA’s elite free agents will begin the 2018-19 season.

LeBron James (Player Option)

Team Odds
Los Angeles Lakers 2-3
Philadelphia 76ers 6-1
Cleveland Cavaliers 7-1
Houston Rockets 12-1
Miami Heat 50-1
FIELD 25-1

If there’s one thing we learned from the 2018 Finals it’s that LeBron James can’t win a title all on his own, particularly when his own teammates are sabotaging his efforts. The King deserves a better court, and he’ll find one in Los Angeles, where Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka have been patiently clearing cap space and jettisoning dead weight for the past year.

Their diligent efforts have resulted in enough financial flexibility to sign two max free agents. They’ve also stockpiled enough assets to trade for a marquee star like Kawhi Leonard, who has expressed his desire to bolt San Antonio and return to Southern California.

Sure, it may sound like a fantasy scenario, but LeBron has more than a little experience constructing super teams. Toss in Brandon Ingram (or a couple of guys from your local Y), and you have all the makings of a championship contender.

Kevin Durant (Player Option)

Team Odds
Golden State Warriors 1-4
Philadelphia 76ers 15-1
Los Angeles Lakers 20-1
San Antonio Spurs 25-1
FIELD 20-1

Forget about all of the memes you’ve seen of Kevin Durant joining the Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Astros, and Minnesota Lynx. The four-time scoring champ has repeatedly said that he loves playing in Golden State and plans to re-up with the franchise the first chance he gets.

The bigger question is whether this will be the last NBA contract Durant ever signs. The newly-minted Finals MVP recently told ESPN that he could envision stepping away from the game by the time he turns 35.

“This game, your craft, you have to continue studying it,” he confided. “No matter how much you enjoy it, nobody wants to be in school that long. I know I don’t. At some point, you have to be ready to graduate. Thirty-five, that’s just a number in my mind.”

Enjoy him while you can, because Durant could be here for a good time, and not a long time.

Paul George (Player Option)

Team Odds
Los Angeles Lakers 1-1
Oklahoma City Thunder 6-1
Philadelphia 76ers 10-1
Cleveland Cavaliers 25-1
FIELD 15-1

The Thunder are planning to offer George $175.7 million over five years to stay in Oklahoma City. That’s $45.5 million more than he could make in Los Angeles, and it doesn’t matter one iota.

It may seem odd in today’s commerce-driven society, but this decision isn’t all about money for George. The Palmdale native spent the first 20 years of his life in California and grew up idolizing Kobe Bryant.

“I had the Kobe jersey, and I would do the Kobe walk,” he has confessed. “I would walk around the house doing the Kobe stare-down face. Anything you can name, I was idolizing him, trying to be like him.”

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Those close to George know that he’s dreamt of joining the Lakers since childhood and that his time away from Southern California has only heightened his desire to return home. Count on him joining the Purple and Gold and helping the team to recruit more A-list stars.

Chris Paul (Player Option)

Team Odds
Houston Rockets 2-7
Los Angeles Lakers 9-1
New Orleans Pelicans 25-1
FIELD 25-1

When the Rockets traded seven players for Chris Paul in June 2017, they did so with the intention of signing the All-Star point guard to a generous contract this summer. That plan remains very much in tact after Paul averaged 18.6 points and 7.9 assists per game in his first year in Houston, and nearly led the Rockets to the NBA Finals before being sidelined with a strained hamstring.

Paul is reportedly so certain that he’ll remain in Clutch City that he’s put his Los Angeles mansion on the market for $11.5 million and has turned all of his attention to recruiting LeBron James to join him. That particular pairing remains a longshot, but expect Paul to remain with the Rockets for another three-to-four years.

DeMarcus Cousins (Unrestricted Free Agent)

Team Odds
Dallas Mavericks 1-1
San Antonio Spurs 9-2
New Orleans Pelicans 7-1
New York Knicks 8-1
FIELD 10-1

Remember the good ‘ol days when players remained with the franchise that drafted them for the duration of their careers? Neither does DeMarcus Cousins. The four-time All-Star has made it abundantly clear that his loyalty is available to the highest bidder.

The team most likely to overpay for Cousins are the Mavericks, who tried to acquire the 6’10” pivot before he was shipped to New Orleans. Boogie’s ruptured Achilles remains a huge red flag, but his offensive skillset is too good to pass up for a franchise that hasn’t had a reliable center since Tyson Chandler fled to New York in 2011.

DeAndre Jordan (Player Option)

Team Odds
Los Angeles Clippers 13-7
Dallas Mavericks 2-1
Houston Rockets 6-1
Chicago Bulls 12-1
FIELD 9-1

We’re about to find out just how highly DeAndre Jordan thinks of himself. If he believes he’s the best defensive pivot in the NBA then he’ll almost certainly opt out of his $24 million contract and attempt to land a more lucrative deal. If, on the other hand, he has an ounce of reason or has recently glanced at his career .446 free throw percentage then he’ll gratefully opt into the final year of his deal.

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Our money is on Jordan staying with the only franchise he’s ever known and remaining with the Clippers until he retires (or until he misses another 10,000 free throws, whichever comes first).

Clint Capela (Restricted Free Agent)

Team Odds
Dallas Mavericks 3-2
Phoenix Suns 3-1
Houston Rockets 4-1
Los Angeles Clippers 9-1
FIELD 20-1

Some players will get bigger paydays this year than Clint Capela, but no one will get a bigger raise. The Swiss pogo stick made just $2.3 million in 2017-18 and is likely to fetch up to $20 million per season on the open market. That’s a whole lot of Benjamins, and it might price him out of Houston’s future plans.

Fortunately, Capela will have no shortage of suitors if he proves to be too expensive for Houston. Dallas and Phoenix are both enthralled by the 6’10” big man and can offer him a max contract once free agency begins on July 1st.

It’s uncertain whether a Twin Tower approach with Capela and presumptive #1 pick Deandre Ayton would work in Phoenix, but it would certainly be fun to watch as they shut down the lane and swat shots deep into the cheap seats.

Julius Randle (Restricted Free Agent)

Team Odds
Dallas Mavericks 3-2
Phoenix Suns 2-1
Los Angeles Lakers 8-1
Indiana Pacers 10-1
FIELD 15-1

Few players did more to improve their earning potential in 2017-18 than Julius Randle, who averaged a career-high 16.1 points per game on 56% shooting from the floor. The 6’9″ power forward would love to stay in LA, but would likely be one of the first casualties if the Lakers are able to sign LeBron James and Paul George and trade for Kawhi Leonard.

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Expect Randle to land on his feet in his hometown of Dallas, where he would be a huge upgrade over Dwight Powell and would allow Dirk Nowitzki to slide over to center. Randle alone won’t transform the Mavs into a contender, but he would be a rock solid building block as the team embarks on a future without its all-time leading scorer.

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