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Bucks 2021 NBA Championship Odds Improve to +500 After Trading for Jrue Holiday and Bogdan Bogdanovic

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 3, 2021 · 12:57 PM PST

Giannis
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks) during the Bucks v Hornets game on January 24, 2020 in Paris, France. (Photo by JB Autissier/Panoramic/Icon Sportswire)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have overhauled their roster in an attempt to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo
  • News broke of a trade for Jrue Holiday on Monday, quickly followed by a sign-and-trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic
  • The Bucks have moved to second favorites in the latest NBA title odds at +500

The Milwaukee Bucks were under more pressure than any team this offseason. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s potential supermax extension hovered over the franchise. The front office had to be active, and they’ve done just that, landing Jrue Holiday and Bogdan Bogdanovic without giving up any of their core pieces.

Milwaukee has moved from an average price of +750 on November 16th to +500 at DraftKings on November 17th, putting them second favorites in the latest NBA championship odds. These are win now moves from a franchise that needed it, drastically improving their starting five.

Rumors of a James Harden trade shortened the Brooklyn Nets’ championship odds, but the Bucks remain the favorites in the East, as can be seen in the table below.

2021 NBA Championship Odds

Team Odds
Los Angeles Lakers +350
Milwaukee Bucks +500
Brooklyn Nets +600
Los Angeles Clippers +600
Golden State Warriors +800
Boston Celtics +1400
Miami Heat +1600
Toronto Raptors +2000
Dallas Mavericks +2500
Denver Nuggets +2500
Houston Rockets +3000
Philadelphia 76ers +3000
Utah Jazz +4000
Phoenix Suns +4000
Portland Trail Blazers +5000
New Orleans Pelicans +8000

Odds taken from DraftKings on November 17th

New-Look Bucks

Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, three first-round picks and two pick swaps were sent to land Jrue Holiday. Justin James and Bogdanovic will join the Bucks in a sign-and-trade that has cost Milwaukee Ersan Ilyasova, D.J. Wilson and Donte DiVincenzo. This was as win-now as it gets for Milwaukee, a franchise under the greatest of pressure to prove themselves as legitimate contenders to Antetokounmpo.

Their depth has taken a considerable hit, particularly with Robin Lopez turning down his player option, but the starting five of Holiday, Bogdanovic, Khris Middleton, Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez is a marked upgrade at both ends. Already the best defense in the NBA last season, they’ve added an elite perimeter defender in Holiday and length in Bogdanovic.

Holiday’s Perfect Fit

Links to a pure point guard like Chris Paul were inevitable. The Bucks went down a different route to increase their ball-handling as Holiday is more of a combo guard, but that is perhaps a better fit alongside the Greek Freak. Antetokounmpo is still going to handle it a lot, and Holiday is comfortable off-ball, cutting to the basket or taking catch-and-fire perimeter jumpers.

Holiday hit over 35% of his threes last season – that’s between what Wes Matthews (36.4%) and Bledsoe (34.4%) registered. He will get better looks playing alongside Antetokounmpo, and there’s no question he’s a better play maker than Bledsoe.

While he has limited post-season experience, Holiday’s last playoff venture (2017-18) stuck in the mind of everyone around the NBA. He had an effective field percentage of 56.5%, scoring almost 24 per game. That was his first trip to the playoffs since 2014-15.

The offensive fit alongside Middleton and Antetokounmpo is good. Holiday can do a bit of everything – he should fit seamlessly into their current system. Defensively he’s just as versatile. He will take the Kyrie Irving or Kemba Walker assignment in a playoff series, and he can guard up a position or two when required. Pair that Bogdanovic, and Milwaukee’s backcourt has improved drastically.

Their title odds are probably the lowest they will be after this deal. Other Eastern Conference contenders will make moves, likely lengthening the Bucks’ odds. Make no mistake – they’re a serious title contender, but now isn’t the best time to back them.

Pelicans Odds Take a Hit

The Pelicans add veterans to their talented young core as they pursue a postseason berth. Bledsoe compensates for the loss of Holiday’s defense, and Hill is a useful player to have off the bench. It’s an okay fit for both of them, but David Griffin might look to move them on before the season is over.

Bledsoe and Hill’s roles on the team largely depend on how New Orleans view Lonzo Ball. If he’s their long-term point guard, Bledsoe has limited value to them – he’s not going to have the ball in his hands much. Hill can knock down shots, but they already have JJ Redick and Josh Hart coming off the bench.

This was too good a package for the Pels to turn down. It doesn’t help them in 2020-21, but they land two experienced guards and a haul of picks for a player who may have walked at the end of the season.

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