Bulls vs Heat Odds and Picks

• The Bulls vs Heat odds favor Miami by 3.5-points on Monday (Feb. 28) at 7:30pm ET
• These two teams rank first and second in the East
• Read below for the Chicago vs Miami odds, analysis, and betting prediction

The most compelling game on Monday’s seven-game NBA slate comes to us from Miami. The red-hot Heat will host the Chicago Bulls in a matchup of the top-two teams in the East.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30pm ET at FTX Arena in South Beach, a building where the Heat are 20-7 this season.

Bulls vs Heat Odds

Odds as of Feb. 27th at BetMGM.

Miami is as a 3.5-point favorite, in a contest that features a total of 225.5.  The -158 moneyline gives the Heat a 61.24% implied win probability.

Miami enters play riding a three-game winning streak, and have won eight of their past nine overall. Chicago meanwhile, just had its six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday, and can pull into a tie with the Heat atop the East with a victory.

While the teams are separated by just a game in the standings, oddsmakers see Miami as a significantly greater threat to make a deep playoff run. The Heat are +500 in the latest Eastern Conference title odds posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

The Heat are fresh off a 133-129 victory on Saturday over San Antonio, in a game dominated by Bam Adebayo. Miami’s center put up 36 points and grabbed 7 rebounds, spoiling Gregg Popovich’s bid to tie the NBA record for regular season coaching wins.

the bam adebayo show pic.twitter.com/BlP7E9HsCR

— Bally Sports Sun: HEAT (@BallyHEAT) February 27, 2022

Tyler Herro added 27 points off the bench, while Jimmy Butler poured in 27 points as well despite sitting out the final quarter. Butler has been bothered by knee soreness, but all signs point to him playing on Monday. Kyle Lowry scored 13 points and dished out a team-high 10 assists, but won’t play versus the Bulls due to personal reasons. Also out for Miami on Monday is Markieff Morris (neck), while Caleb Martin is questionable (Achilles).

On Heat injury report for tomorrow’s game vs. Bulls: Kyle Lowry ruled out because of personal reasons.

Victor Oladipo, Markieff Morris and Javonte Smart also out. Caleb Martin is questionable with left Achilles soreness.

— Anthony Chiang (@Anthony_Chiang) February 27, 2022

The Heat shot a blistering 56.6% from the field versus the Spurs, including 43% from beyond the arc. They were uncharacteristically generous at the defensive end, yielding a 55.6% field goal percentage to San Antonio, but made up for it by forcing 22 turnovers.

that 19 games over .500 feeling… pic.twitter.com/L8STjtT39t

— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) February 27, 2022

Miami is one of just two teams in the league that ranks top-seven in both offensive and defensive rating, and check in as the league’s fifth best scoring defense.

Chicago Bulls Betting Analysis

Chicago fell last time out to Memphis 116-110, despite another strong outing from DeMar DeRozan. The 32-year-old poured in 31 points, giving him at least 30 points in 10 straight games. That’s the longest such streak in franchise history since Michael Jordan scored 30 or more in 11 straight outings during the 1990-91 season.

Longest streak of 30-point games in Bulls history:

11 — Michael Jordan
10 — DeMar DeRozan pic.twitter.com/UANVgUPvmk

— StatMuse (@statmuse) February 27, 2022

DeRozan has morphed into an unlikely MVP candidate this season, going from an extreme longshot to a top-five contender. He now sports odds as short as +1300 to win the award, after opening with a price tag as long as 250-1.

Zach LaVine added 28 points versus the Grizzlies in his second game back following a three-game hiatus due to a knee injury. The Bulls had an off night shooting the ball, making just 41.9% of thier looks, and were absolutely abused down low. Memphis out-rebounded them by 20, and outscored them 62-50 in the paint.

On to the next one. pic.twitter.com/9zb7AEKZI4

— Chicago Bulls (@chicagobulls) February 27, 2022

Chicago could struggle inside again on Monday if starting center Nikola Vucevic is unable to play. He’s currently listed as day-to-day with an ankle injury, but did play 30 minutes versus the Grizzlies. Lonzo Ball (back) and Alex Caruso (wrist) remain out of action, without a clear timetable for a return.

The Bulls enter play ranked fourth in offensive rating, and eighth in points per game, but struggle defensively. They’re 19th in defensive rating, and 22nd in opponent field goal percentage.

Bulls vs Heat Pick

Miami is 2-0 versus Chicago this season, posting a 107-104 victory in Illinois, and a 118-92 win at home. The under has hit in both instances, and is a strong play on Monday, despite both teams’ high scoring games on Saturday.

Four of the Bulls’ last five games have fallen under the total, while the under is 8-4-1 when Chicago is a road underdog. Miami allows just 104.8 points per game at home, and if Butler is healthy he’ll arguably be the toughest defender DeRozan has faced during his epic run.

The loss of Lowry hurts, and while the Heat are 8-5 without him this season, they average only 107 points in games he misses.

The total in these two teams’ first two meetings was 208.5 and 209.5, making Monday’s over/under of 225.5 seem like a clear case of recency bias.

Pick: Under 225.5 (-110)