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Celtics vs Heat Game 4 Player Props – Over/Unders and Picks for NBA Eastern Conference Finals

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in NBA Basketball

May 23, 2022 · 6:23 AM PDT

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum holding the ball above his head
May 21, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) controls the ball against the Miami Heat in the first quarter during game three of the 2022 eastern conference finals at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics matchup for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Monday
  • Miami holds a 2-1 series lead after their Saturday night win 
  • Read below for Celtics vs Heat Game 4 player props and best bets

The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Monday night. Boston trails 2-1 in the series despite Miami battling numerous health issues. The home team is a 6.5-point favorite as they look to tie up the series.

There’s uncertainty over the availability of Jimmy Butler. Kyle Lowry, P.J. Tucker, Max Strus, Tyler Herro, and Gabe Vincent are also listed as questionable. Carrying injuries throughout the playoffs, Boston has Marcus Smart and Robert Williams on the injury report.

Celtics vs Heat Game 4 Player Props

MIA @ BOS Points Rebounds Assists Three Pointers Made
Jayson Tatum (BOS) 27.5 (O -108 | U -114) 6.5 (O +116 | U -142) 5.5 (O +122 | U -150) 3.5 (O +108 | U -138)
Jaylen Brown (BOS) 24.5 (O -110 | U -110) 6.5 (O -128 | U +104) 3.5 (O -106 | U -114) 2.5 (O -148 | U +116)
Marcus Smart (BOS) 14.5 (O -110 | U -110) 4.5 (O +116 | U -142) 6.5 (O -122 | U +100) 2.5 (O +132 | U -170)
Al Horford (BOS) 11.5 (O -106 | U -116) 9.5 (O +102 | U -124) 2.5 (O -164 | U +134) 1.5 (O -106 | U -120)
Jimmy Butler (MIA) 25.5 (O -106 | U -116) 6.5 (O -132 | U +108) 4.5 (O -104 | U -118) 1.5 (O +164 | U -215)
Bam Adebayo (MIA) 15.5 (O -122 | U +100) 8.5 (O -128 | U +104) 2.5 (O -128 | U +104) OFF
P.J. Tucker (MIA) 7.5 (O +104 | U -128) 5.5 (O -102 | U -120) OFF 1.5 (O +186 | U -205)

Odds as of May 23 at FanDuel Sportsbook

 

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Whatever the outcome, Game 4 will have a massive impact on NBA Championship odds. Following a poor Game 3 outing, the Celtics need a big night from Jayson Tatum, who has the highest points line on Monday night.

Pick #1: Tatum Turns It Over

Jayson Tatum has turned the ball over 16 times in three games. He had another 11 in the final two games against the Bucks. For all the great defense and explosive scoring this postseason, Boston’s All-NBA forward has shown some questionable decision making as a playmaker, and has been prone to errors when pressured.

It’s more turnovers than assists for Tatum in the Eastern Conference Finals so far. Boston’s halfcourt offense was completely stifled in Game 3. Tatum has made meaningful strides as a playmaker over the last couple of years, but it’s still an area of weakness in his game. He has been rushed into decisions and Miami’s physicality on defense has caused some problems when he’s driving.

Averaging 4.3 turnovers per game this postseason, the most of any remaining player, Tatum has passed this 3.5 line in four of the last five. With his tendency to give the ball away in these playoffs, the over looks like a great bet here, even with the -120 price at DraftKings.

Pick: Jayson Tatum over 3.5 turnovers (-120)

Pick #2: Floor General Smart

Marcus Smart is averaging 13.5 potential assists over his last four appearances. His 6.5 assists line at FanDuel is on the low side given that he’s had seven or more dimes in each of those games. He’s averaging nine assists per game over that span, the highest mark of any player left in the postseason.

Smart has embraced being the point guard this season. With Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown having their shortcomings as playmakers, Smart is invaluable to get the offense set in the half-court and put the star wing duo in position to succeed.

Smart is no Chris Paul, but their offense runs far smoother with him on the court. He’s cut down the ill-judged shots and has become an unselfish teammate. Boston’s offense is at its best when the ball is moving, and Smart has a key role to play in that, which is illustrated by the Defensive Player of the Year ranking seventh in passes per game this postseason.

Playing through an injury, Smart has still been effective at both ends. In what is pretty much a must-win for Boston, he’s likely to play big minutes. He’s already played 40+ three times this postseason, and that could become four on Monday night. While it’s a relatively short price, Smart’s production over the last few games suggests this a decent over to back.

Pick: Marcus Smart over 6.5 assists (-122)

 

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