DEN Nuggets vs OKC Thunder Prediction, Picks, Props & Best Odds for Game 1

• The OKC Thunder are heavy favorites over the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 of their best-of-seven series on Monday night
• The Thunder are playing on nine days’ rest while the Nuggets are on just two
• See the Game 1 Nuggets vs Thunder picks, predictions, player props and best available odds on May 5

The Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14, 35-6 home) and Denver Nuggets (50-32, 24-17 away) start their best-of-seven second-round series on Monday night in OKC. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:40 pm CT/9:40 pm ET at the Paycom Center and the top-seeded Thunder are big favorites to win, despite Denver finding its share of success against OKC in the regular season. The latest NBA odds list the Thunder as 9.5-point home chalk, up a full point from the opening odds for Game 1.

Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction & Picks for Game 1

• OKC -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM
• Jokic under 27.5 points (-121) at Caesars

Sascha Paruk’s playoff betting record: 18-23 (-5.6 units)

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (US); 1-800-327-5050 (MA); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-981-0023 (PR), 877-718-5543 or visit morethanagame.nc.gov (NC). See BetMGM.com for T&C. US promotional offers not available in MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET $1,500
BACK

BET NOW

In Games 5 and 7 against LAC in the first round, Denver proved how dangerous it is to make them home underdogs in the Nikola Jokic era. But they also have a thin/top-heavy roster that’s logged a lot of minutes over the last week and has to start the second round on the road. The younger, deeper, more-rested Thunder haven’t played since they completed their four-game sweep of Memphis on April 26.

Denver managed to split its four regular-season games against OKC, even winning once on the road (140-127 on March 10, a day after getting routed 127-103 in the same building. But that win on March 10 shows how difficult it is to take down OKC. Denver shot a ludicrous 60.5% from the floor and 56.3% from three (18-of-32), got 30-plus points from Jokic (24.0 PPG, 11.6 APG, 10.1 postseason) and Jamal Murray (22.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.9 APG postseason) and saw all five starters score at least 14 points.

Denver also outscored OKC from the free-throw line that night (18-of-20 vs 14-of-16), which is another rarity this season.

In the other three regular-season meetings between Denver and OKC, Jokic was held to 24 points or fewer he averaged 24.5 PPG over the four games. Jokic was also held to 25 points or fewer in the final three games of the LAC series, shooting just 42.9% from the floor in the last 12 quarters.

Add in the fact that the Thunder defense took its play to another level in the first round, posting a 97.6 D-Rating against Memphis, and I will happily back the under on Jokic’s point total of 27.5 O/U at -110).

I’m also betting OKC to cover the sizable spread of 9.5 points. OKC is 9-1 straight-up in its last ten home games and all nine wins have come by at least 16 points and by an average of 26.7 PPG. This Thunder team is absolutely massacring (almost) all comers at the Paycom Center. Unless Denver shoots the lights out like it did a month ago, the Thunder will run away with another home win.

DEN vs OKC Player Props

NBA player props from DraftKings on May 5.

SGA (27.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.0 APG) has the highest point total of the night at 32.5, five more than Jokic at 27.5. Jalen Williams (23.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.3 APG) is the only other player over 20 points, sitting at 21.5 O/U.

Jokic has the highest rebound total (12.5) and assist total (9.5) of the night.

Nuggets vs Thunder Odds (Game 1)

Currently, the Nuggets/Thunder spread is OKC -9.5 across the board but there are minor variations in price. OKC backers can find the best odds on the Thunder to cover at BetMGM (-110) while Denver bettors can get the Nuggets +9.5 at even-money at ESPN Bet.

The longest odds on Denver to win straight-up are at Caesars (+345) while the best OKC moneyline is at FanDuel (-405).

There is a half-point range on the game total in Monday’s NBA odds. The vast majority of sportsbooks have it at 226.5. DraftKings is the lone exception, dropping it half a point to 226.0, making it the best option for over bettors.