Expert NBA Player Prop Picks – the Best A.I. NBA Picks Today
By Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball
Published:
- Our A.I. has made its player-prop picks for today’s six NBA games
- The A.I. is an impressive 28-23 on the season and +3.37 units
- See the best A.I. NBA prop picks on Tuesday, November 4th
Coming off another strong showing yesterday, our internal A.I. is now 28-23 on NBA player-prop picks this season, profiting 3.37 units on one-unit wagers. Tuesday’s NBA slate brings another six games, and I have asked the A.I. to provide its best NBA prop pick for each game.
The table below sets out the A.I.’s NBA prop pick from each game, in chronological order of tip-off time, plus the sportsbook currently offering the best odds. Under the table, I have provided one-click options to tail each bet, plus the A.I.’s rationale for each wager.
A.I. NBA Picks for Tuesday, Nov. 4th
As it’s done each of the last seven times I’ve done this exercise, the A.I. has exclusively targeted overs on Tuesday.
Best odds as of 9:13 am ET. Bookmark SBD’s Caesars Sportsbook Missouri page to see the latest sign-up offers before launch in December.
Bucks vs Raptors Prop Pick: Barnes Over 7.5 Rebounds
A.I. rationale: “This wager zeroes in on the Bucks’ most glaring weakness: rebounding. Milwaukee ranks near the bottom of the league in rebounding, allowing opponents to grab 12.0 offensive boards per game. This creates a golden opportunity for Toronto’s most versatile player.
Scottie Barnes has been attacking the glass with increased vigor, elevating his production to 8.2 rebounds per game over his last five contests. A significant portion of that comes on the offensive end, where he is averaging 2.4 offensive rebounds during that same stretch. With starting center Jakob Poeltl’s status in question, even more rebounding responsibility could fall on Barnes’s shoulders. He is perfectly positioned to exploit Milwaukee’s inability to secure the defensive glass and should have ample opportunity to rack up boards via second-chance possessions.”
Hornets vs Pelicans Prop Pick: Williamson Over 4.5 Assists
A.I. rationale: “Zion’s role as a point-forward and playmaker for the Pelicans’ offense is where the betting value resides. In his lone home game this season, Williamson operated as a primary distributor, racking up 7 assists – comfortably clearing this prop line. He’s facing a Hornets team that has struggled to contain opposing playmakers on their travels. Charlotte is allowing a generous 29.3 assists per game to opponents in road contests. Given Zion’s high usage rate (32.2%) and his proven ability to facilitate from the post against a porous defense, backing him to record at least five assists is the strongest play on the board.”
Magic vs Hawks Prop Pick: Banchero Over 36.5 PTS+REB+AST
A.I. rationale: “Paolo Banchero’s recent statistical surge positions him perfectly for a dominant all-around performance against Atlanta’s defensive vulnerabilities. Over his last five contests, he has averaged 25.6 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists for a combined 40.4 PRA, significantly exceeding his season average of 36.6. The matchup advantages are clear: Banchero will attack Atlanta’s league-worst offensive-rebounding defense (13.9 allowed per game) while operating against a frontcourt that struggles to contain physical forwards. His 60% double-double rate over the last five games demonstrates the consistent production needed to clear elevated combo totals. With Franz Wagner sidelined, Banchero’s usage rate of 28.0% should remain elevated.”
76ers vs Bulls Prop Pick: Vucevic Over 10.5 Rebounds
A.I. rationale: “The 76ers have a defensive rebounding rate of 70.2% of available defensive boards. This creates a massive opportunity for an elite rebounder like Vucevic, who averages a formidable 12.3 rebounds per game. He has been even more dominant at home, averaging 13.0 rebounds per game in Chicago this season. He has exceeded a rebound line of 10.5 in 3 of his 4 home games (75%) this year.”
Suns vs Warriors Prop Pick: Butler Over 5.5 Rebounds
A.I. rationale: “The Suns rank near the league bottom with their 69.2% defensive rebounding rate and surrender 13.6 offensive rebounds per game to opponents. Jimmy Butler’s physical style and rebounding instincts make him perfectly suited to exploit this weakness. His season average of 5.6 rebounds per game already sits above this line, but his 2.4 offensive rebounds per game create the real value. Against a team that consistently fails to secure defensive rebounds, Butler should find numerous second-chance opportunities.
With Al Horford sidelined, Butler’s glass-crashing responsibility increases further. The statistical mismatch is too significant to ignore – Phoenix allows offensive rebounds at one of the highest rates in the league, while Butler actively pursues them at an elite level for his position.”
Thunder vs Clippers Prop Pick: SGA Over 32.5 Points
A.I. rationale: “Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on a mission this season, carrying the Thunder offense with a staggering 34.7% usage rate and averaging 33.6 points per game. With key secondary scorer Jalen Williams sidelined, an even greater portion of the offense is flowing through SGA. He generates a massive number of points by relentlessly attacking the rim (14.3 points in the paint per game) and getting to the charity stripe (9.6 free throw attempts per game). In his three away games this season, he has been even more dominant, maintaining a blistering 36.0 PPG. Expect Gilgeous-Alexander to be aggressive from the opening tip and carry the scoring load, making the over on his points prop a premier play.”
- BETMGM SPORTSBOOK
USE CODE SBD1500 & GET $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS
- BET365 SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365
- FANATICS SPORTSBOOK
BET $10, GET $100 IN FANCASH + GAMEDAY GUARANTEE
- DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $300 IN BONUS BETS IF YOUR BET WINS + 3 MONTHS OF NBA LEAGUE PASS
- FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $150 IF YOUR BET WINS
- CAESARS SPORTSBOOK
USE CODE SBD20X & BET $1 TO DOUBLE THE WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 20 WAGERS!
- ESPN BET SPORTSBOOK
USE CODE DIME TO UNLOCK BET $10, GET $100 BONUS & ESPN+
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS).
BET365 SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.