- The Sacramento Kings look to take a 3-0 series lead when they visit the Warriors Thursday (April 20)
- Golden State forward Draymond Green has been suspended for Game 3
- Read below for the Kings vs Warriors Game 3 odds and predictions
The Golden State Warriors are in unchartered territory in the Steph Curry era.
Down 2-0 in a series for the first time, they return home trying to get back into their best-of-7 series with the Sacramento Kings.
They’ll have to do it without Draymond Green, who was suspended for his chest stomp of Domantas Sabonis in the fourth quarter of Game 2. That play has Sabonis questionable as well too.
Game 3 goes Thursday (April 20) at 10pm ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco, CA. You can watch the game live on TNT.
Kings vs Warriors Game 3 Odds
|Sacramento Kings||+5.5 (-110)||+185||Ov 239.5 (-110)|
|Golden State Warriors||-5.5 (-110)||-215||Un 239.5 (-110)|
As bad as the Dubs have been on the road, they are among the best at home, which is why they have been favored by 5.5 points in the NBA odds and -215 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 68.25%. The game features a total of 239.5 points.
At 33-8, GState had the 3rd-most home wins in the NBA. They are also the NBA’s premier bounce back playoff team: since 2015, they’re 24-9 after a loss, the highest win percentage in the league over that period.
SacTo was 25-18 on the road this year, one of only two teams in the playoffs to have more wins on the road than at home.
Odds as of April 19 at DraftKings.
Kings vs Warriors Betting Analysis
After De’Aaron Fox took over to help Light the Beam in Game 1, the Kings showed just how deep they are in a 114-106 win in Game 2.
Fox had 24 points, nine assists and four steals, while Sabonis had 24 of his own, with nine boards and four assists. In total, six Kings scored in double digits, including Malik Monk putting up 18 points, six rebounds and three assists off the bench. Davion Mitchell had 14 points and three assists.
What an incredible team defensive possession by the Kings leading to the De'Aaron Fox bucket pic.twitter.com/8DXctHfMkV
— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) April 18, 2023
Steph Curry had a game-high 28 points and six assists for the Dubs, but shot a dreadful 3-for-13 from downtown. Andrew Wiggins came back to the starting lineup and had 22 points and five rebounds, while Klay Thompson finished with 21, five rebounds and three assists.
Their bench was outscored 36-21, with Gary Payton II the only other Warrior to score in double figures with 13.
Perhaps the biggest surprise is Sacramento’s defense holding up, and winning stats along the margins. The Kings scored 20 points off 12 offensive rebounds, while forcing 22 GState turnovers, converting them into 25 points.
Sacramento vs Golden State Same-Game Parlay
Looking for a little juice to add enjoyment to what should be a wildly intriguing Game 3? There’s a chance you can wet your beak with a Kings vs Warriors Same-Game parlay.
With Green on the sidelines, don’t sleep on Kevon Looney, the only reliable big man the Dubs can lean on. He starts off a 4-leg SGP that pays out at +1000 odds.
Kings vs Warriors Game 3 Same-Game Parlay
|Kevon Looney Double-Double (YES)||+190|
|Steph Curry OVER 30.5 points||+100|
|Keegan Murray 8+ points||+120|
|De’Aaron Fox 2+ 3-Pointers Made||-185|
|Same-Game Parlay Odds||+1000|
There’s too much at stake for Steph Curry to not show up. He’s shot only 33.3% from distance so far in the series, and has failed to cross 31 points in a game this series. Assuming he splashes a couple more, he should cross that number pretty easily in a must-win game.
Steph Curry relocation 3s never get old pic.twitter.com/P09YIoSvZl
— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) April 16, 2023
Speaking of showing up, rookie Keegan Murray has not found his footing yet in the series, scoring four points on 1-for-6 shooting in two games. This is a guy who cracked 8+ points in 14 of the final 15 regular season games. I like the chances of him adjusting to playoff hoops, even if it is on the road.
And De’Aaron Fox has hit at least two three-pointers in each of the first two games, though he’s only shooting 6-for-18 in the series, matching Curry’s 33.3% clip. This one should come fairly easily in Game 3.
Kings vs Warriors Prediction
There’s a legit chance we’re looking at the end of the Warriors dynasty. The Kings have been the bet in this head-to-head, even at the usually not-so-friendly confines at Chase. SacTo is a sparkling 11-2 against the spread in the last 13 meetings in Golden State.
Overall, the Warriors are just 8-20 ATS in the last 28 against the Kings. Playing without Green probably isn’t the best formula to improve that mark.
However, Chase Center is a real home court advantage, and the Dubs are a crisp 22-13-1 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Dubs should get back into it, but it won’t be easy.
- Kings +5.5 (-110); 1.5 units to win 1.36 units
- NBA Postseason Record: 0-1 ATS; 1-3 o/u; 0-1 ML; -6.14 units