Game 3 Knicks vs Heat Picks, Player Props & Odds (May 6)
- The Miami Heat are 4-point favorites in Game 3 of their Round 2 series vs the New York Knicks
- Jimmy Butler (ankle) is questionable; he missed Game 2 as New York evened the series 1-1
- Check out the latest Knicks vs Heat Game 3 picks, plus injury news, betting splits and prop bets to target
It’s easily the most important right ankle in the East’s NBA Playoff Bracket.
The status of Jimmy Butler hangs over all as the Heat and Knicks tangle in Game 3 of their Round 2 series, squared up at a game each. Miami’s main man is currently listed as questionable, though he has had a full five days off to heal.
Sans Jimmy, New York salvaged a split with a win in Game 2, and their Big 3 — Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett — are all available as they try and regain home court advantage.
It all gets underway Saturday (May 6) at 3:30pm ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL. You can watch the game live on ABC.
Knicks vs Heat Game 3 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | +4 (-110) | +145 | O 209 (-110) |
| Miami Heat | -4 (-110) | -170 | U 209 (-110) |
Even with Butler’s status unknown, the NBA odds appear to think he might be a go, listing the Heat as 4-point favorites and -170 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 62.96%.
Game 2, a 111-105 slugfest, was the first game these playoffs that a Knicks game hit the over. The total for Saturday looks like another gettable figure at 209.
The Heat are 2-1 at Kaseya in the playoffs, and 27-14 during the regular season. New York, meanwhile, was an impressive 24-17 on the road in the regular season, and they’re 2-1 on the road in the postseason.
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Odds as of May 5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Betting Analysis
Getting Julius Randle back from an ankle injury was the boost New York needed to secure its first Round 2 home win in a decade.
The big man finished with 25 points, 12 rebounds and eight dimes, giving his teammates the room they needed to operate at a high level. Jalen Brunson benefited the most, dropping a game-high 30 points and five boards. After missing all seven 3-point tries in Game 1, Brunson drilled 6-of-10 from distance.
Julius Randle with back-to-back threes 🔥 pic.twitter.com/CohMtJytqZ
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) May 3, 2023
RJ Barrett went for 24, including a sparkling 5-for-9 from three, while Josh Hart had 14 points, 11 rebounds and nine dimes.
The Knicks are also doing it with defense: they’ve held the Heat to 106.5 points per game though two games, and they lead the playoffs in points allowed per game at 97.7 points.
NY has been effective in defending the moneyball, holding opponents to 33.2% shooting, the 3rd-best mark of any team left in the playoffs.
Miami Betting Analysis
Butler is just the latest Heat contributor on the shelf. They’re already out Tyler Herro (hand) and Victor Oladipo (knee). Caleb Martin, who had a team-high 22 points and eight boards in Game 2, is also questionable for Game 3 with a back injury.
Still, Miami has been able to cobble together enough to always be competitive, as evidenced with a 1-point lead heading into the fourth quarter in Game 2, before failing to execute down the stretch. Gabe Vincent had 21 points, while backcourt mate Max Strus added 17.
Coach Spo’s latest update on Jimmy Butler’s ankle injury pic.twitter.com/1IkB1STFhv
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) May 5, 2023
This is not the same team that was an offensive juggernaut against the Bucks, though they still currently rank second in playoff scoring at 119 points per game.
You have to figure Bam Adebayo will feature more prominently if Butler can’t go. He had 10 field goal attempts and finished with 15 points and eight boards last game.
A throwback Kyle Lowry game would help too: he was 3-for-9 off the bench for six points and six assists, but missed all four of his three-point attempts.
Knicks vs Heat Prop Bets & Predictions
Looking for a couple of prop bets to target? Oddsmakers are thinking RJ Barrett will crash back to some reality, but the guy has gone for at least 21 points in four straight playoff games. Loving the +100 odds hitting the 20.5 over.
Our favorite deep cut Saturday: Quentin Grimes has hit one triple in 10 attempts — across four games. Targeting him to go under 0.5 makes at +155 is a nice little sprinkle.
I’m also banking on a Lowry bounce back. Look for him to surpass a total of 18.5 in points, rebounds and assists (-120).
As for the matchup, the Heat are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games. However, the Knicks are among the best bets as a road ‘dog, running a 19-12-1 ATS mark, the 5th-best mark in the regular season.
Still, it’s the total we keep coming back to. Miami shot 10 more threes in Game 2 (49 total) without Butler than they did in Game 1. If he does return, you’re plugging in a guy averaging 35+ points in the playoffs. New York is also looking stout on offense.
The over has hit in the last four head-to-heads between these teams in Miami.
Pick: OVER 209 points (-110)
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Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
