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Game 5 Timberwolves vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Player Props (April 25)

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 24, 2023 · 7:00 PM PDT

Anthony Edwards drives on Nikola Jokic
Apr 21, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (1) goes to the basket as Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) defends during the fourth quarter of game three of the 2023 NBA Playoffs at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Denver Nuggets are 9-point home favorites to wrap up their series Tuesday vs the Timberwolves
  • Minnesota avoided the sweep with an overtime win, and trail the series 3-1
  • Check out the latest Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 5 picks, plus injury news, betting splits and prop bets to target

The Minnesota Timberwolves fought to ensure they wouldn’t be the second team to be swept out of the NBA Playoff Bracket.

The question now becomes: can they sustain that momentum when they head to Denver to battle the top-seeded Nuggets in Game 5?

Oddsmakers aren’t giving them much of a chance, as Minny is a 9-point road ‘dog, and +340 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of just 22.73%

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 5 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Minnesota Timberwolves +9 (-110) +340 O 222 (-110)
Denver Nuggets -9 (-110) -425 U 222 (-110)

Game 5 goes Tuesday (April 25) at 9pm ET from Ball Arena in Denver, CO. You can watch the game live on NBA TV.

Minnesota will get their fifth crack this season to win their first game at Ball Arena. They lost both regular season games by double digits, including a 34-point drubbing on February 7.

Denver smacked them by 29 in Game 1 of this series. Game 2 was a 122-113 Nuggets win, the only game that finished with a difference of under 10 points.

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Odds as of April 24 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Minnesota Betting Analysis

After outscoring the Nuggets just once in the first 12 quarters of this series, Minnesota won two quarters in regulation, and, of course, the important extra frame in a 114-108 OT win.

Anthony Edwards led the way with 34 points, six rebounds, five assists, two steals and three blocks. It’s the third straight game AntMan has gone for 30+ in the series.

His ascension slides Karl-Anthony Towns into a much sturdier second option, and he delivered with 17 points and 11 boards, while Rudy Gobert finished with 14 points and 15 rebounds. Four starters scored in double figures, and Kyle Anderson came off the bench to score 11 points, with six rebounds, five assists and a pair of steals.

Offense has been hard to come by for the Wolves, who rank 12th in the playoffs at 104.5 points per game. Defensively, even with Towns and Gobert, a 3-time defensive player of the year on the floor, they are surrendering 54.5 points in the paint, the 2nd-worst total in the playoffs.

Those lumbering big men are another reason why Minny has allowed 15.5 fast break points per contest, also next-to-last in the playoffs.

Denver Betting Analysis

It wasn’t the result they wanted, but the Nuggets forced the Timberwolves to work for that win.

Denver closed the game on a 12-0 run to push it to the extra period, before eventually petering out.

Nikola Jokic was on fire in this one, tying a playoff career-high with 43 points, 11 rebounds and six dimes. He led the team with a 5-for-8 mark from distance.

Jamal Murray labored to 19 points on 8-for-21 from the floor, with seven rebounds and five dimes, Michael Porter Jr finished with 15 points, five rebounds and two assists.

Denver ranks fourth in the postseason in three-point shooting (39.8%), but connected on 12 of 35 shots, a lowly 34.3% clip.

Even in the loss, the Nuggets have played pretty clean basketball, committing the fewest turnovers in the postseason at 12 per game, and a top-5 mark in limiting offensive rebounds.  They’ve held Minnesota to just 13.3 points off turnovers (2nd) and 8.5 second-chance points (2nd).

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Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prop Bets & Predictions

In a closeout game at home, it’s time to tap into the league’s premier producer. Jokic led the league with 29 triple-doubles, and has one this series already, missing another by a rebound and assist. Love the +285 odds he gets it done.

Aaron Gordon has hit a three-pointer in all but one game this series, so it’s decent odds to get him to go over 0.5 makes at -125.

As for the outcome, Denver is a solid bounceback wager, going 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games following a loss.

The T-Wolves have been a losing bet in this head-to-head lately, going just 1-4 ATS in the last five, but they have been pretty stout in the Mile High city, going 24-9 ATS in their last 33 stops in Denver.

Minnesota has shown some fight, so while I see Denver closing it out, expect it to be a closer one in a must-win scenario.

Pick: Timberwolves +9 (-110)

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