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Game 7 Heat vs Celtics Predictions, Picks and Player Props to Target

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated May 28, 2023 · 6:02 PM PDT

Jayson Tatum celebrates with Derrick White
May 27, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Boston Celtics guard Derrick White (9) celebrates with forward Jayson Tatum (0) after defeating the Miami Heat in game six of the Eastern Conference Finals for the 2023 NBA playoffs at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Boston Celtics are 7.5-point favorites in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals vs the Miami Heat
  • Derrick White’s putback at the buzzer saved Boston and forced the endgame of the series
  • Don’t miss the latest Heat vs Celtics Game 7 odds, analysis and our betting prediction

In one of the craziest finishes in NBA Playoff history, a wild Derrick White putback with tenths of a second remaining helped the Boston Celtics stay alive and win Game 6.

Now, after trailing 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals with the Miami Heat, they’ve squared the series 3-3 and have a chance at history — to be the first team to ever return from that deficit to win a playoff series.

For Miami, they’ve got one last chance at stopping what would a monumental collapse. Both teams are playing for a berth in the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets, who have been waiting in earnest since sweeping the Lakers.

Game 7 goes Monday (May 29) at 8:30pm ET from TD Garden in Boston, MA. You can watch the game live on TNT.

Heat vs Celtics Game 7 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Heat +7.5 (-123) +236 Ov 203 (-117)
Boston Celtics -7.5 (-111) -354 Un 203 (-117)

The books are back to loving Boston, setting them as hefty 7.5-point favorites in the NBA betting odds. Boston is -354 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 77.97%.

After Boston’s 104-103 win, the total has dipped significantly for Game 7, to a mere 203.

The Celtics are 5-5 at home in this playoffs, with a point differential of +6.6. Miami is 5-4 on the road in these playoffs, including games 1&2 of the Eastern Conference Finals.


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Odds as of May 28th at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim a Caesars promo code to bet on Heat vs Celtics Game 7. 

Butler Arrives Too Late in Game 6

Despite a closing surge for Jimmy Butler in the fourth that gave Miami a 1-point lead with three seconds remaining, it was his worst performance of this series. He shot just 5-for-21 and looked tentative almost all game, finishing with 24 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists.

Bam Adebayo had a forgetful night as well, going 4-for-16 for 11 points, 13 rebounds and five assists.

They were buoyed much of the game by the supporting cast, led by Caleb Martin, who started in place of Kevin Love and had 21 points and 15 rebounds. Duncan Robinson was especially effective in the fourth quarter, finishing with 13 points while Gabe Vincent chipped in with 15, but had a rough 6-for-18 shooting night.

Vincent (ankle) appears on the injury report, and is questionable Monday, while any hopes of a Tyler Herro comeback (hand) are not happening.

If you’re looking for encouraging signs, Butler and Bam couldn’t have played worse, and Miami’s defense kept them in it. They held the C’s to 43.6% shooting from the field, including a 7-for-35 mark from distance, a lowly 20% clip.

Tatum Disappears in 2nd Half, White Bails Him Out

It’s the stat that’s defined the C’s almost all season: a 38-2 mark when shooting 40% or better from distance. In their worst 3-point shooting effort of the season, it didn’t matter.

White’s miraculous putback gave him 11 points for the game, the fifth Celtic to score in double digits in Game 6. That bucket saved the C’s from cratering in the 4th-quarter,  as they enjoyed a 10-point lead with just over four minutes to play.

Part of that struggle was the absenteeism of Jayson Tatum in the second half. After a scorching 25-point first half, he scored just six points in the final 24 minutes, including just 1-for-9 shooting from the field.

Jaylen Brown had 26 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and two steals, while Marcus Smart went for 21 points and four rebounds. That trio, however, continues to struggle with giveaways, accounting for 11 of Boston’s 12 turnovers.

Their defense held Miami to 35.5% shooting from the field, but they couldn’t contain them from distance, where the Heat went 14-for-30, outscoring the C’s by 21.

Boston is now the fourth team to ever force a Game 7 after trailing 3-0, but they will be the first team to ever have a chance to complete the comeback at home.

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Heat vs Celtics Player Props & Prediction

Interested in player props? If there’s a big game on the line, you know Butler will have his fingerprints on it. Don’t worry that he’s only crossed the 28.5 total twice in six games this series. He’ll show up. Brown had a huge Game 6, but it’s the first time he’s passed his points-rebounds-assists total of 34.5 since Game 1. Go with the under on that one.

And Marcus Smart’s three-point stroke has returned just in time, hitting for at least three triples in three straight games. He’s got plus odds to make it four, and that’s momentum we can ride.

As for the game, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Heat were blown out by 25.

However, Boston is coming off a win where they barely survived. Despite the fact the C’s are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 after an ATS loss, Miami is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Boston.

The Celtics should win, but the Heat will make them earn it.

  • Heat +7.5 (-117)
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