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Giannis Overtakes LeBron James as 2019 NBA MVP Favorite

Ryan Murphy

by Ryan Murphy in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 27, 2020 · 3:00 PM PDT

Giannis Antetokounmpo slices through the lane against the Wizards. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) CC License
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo has the shortest average odds to win the 2019 NBA MVP award
  • Can the Greek Freak remain in the driver’s seat all season long?
  • Could Steph Curry win his third NBA MVP award in 2019?

The NBA MVP race is starting to get Freaky.

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo has officially overtaken LeBron James and Anthony Davis to emerge with the shortest average odds to win the 2019 NBA MVP award. The Greek Freak is presently in first place at +350, followed closely by James and Davis at +450 each.

2019 NBA MVP Average Odds

Antetokounmpo’s short odds aren’t surprising considering his phenomenal play. The 23-year-old is averaging 25 points, 14.2 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.7 blocks in just 30.7 minutes per game. He ranks in the top-five league wide in usage rating, defensive rating, defensive win shares, and rebounds, and has powered the unbeaten Bucks to a 7-0 record.

2019 NBA MVP Odds

Player Odds
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) +375
Anthony Davis (Pelicans) +450
LeBron James (Lakers) +450
Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) +650
Steph Curry (Warriors) +650

Antetokounmpo has been one of the NBA’s best players since 2017, but he’s unlocked a new gear this season thanks to the space and pace offense of new bench boss Mike Budenholzer. The former Coach of the Year has created large swatches of open court for Antetokounmpo to operate in by surrounding him with a bevy of experienced marksman.

Milwaukee is now taking 40.6 three-pointers and scoring 120 points per game this season. Compare that to a year ago when the Bucks scored 106.5 points per game and took just 24.7 shots from downtown.

Big kudos go to newly acquired center Brook Lopez, who is shooting 38.6% from beyond the arc, and power forward Ersan Ilyasova, who is nailing 36.4% of his threes. Both players have helped to clear up the lane by drawing opposing bigs outside.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Career Statistics

Year PPG RPG APG
2013-14 6.8 4.4 1.9
2014-15 12.7 6.7 2.6
2015-16 16.9 7.7 4.3
2016-17 22.9 8.8 5.4
2017-18 26.9 10.0 4.8
2018-19 25.0 14.2 5.7

Antetokounmpo had his finest game of the season on October 24th against the 76ers, going off for 32 points, 18 rebounds, 10 assists, and three blocks. It was just the 10th triple-double of his career, but it likely won’t be his last as he continues to evolve as a playmaker.

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Seth Curry and Kawhi Leonard are Coming on Strong

Antetokounmpo isn’t the only player whose NBA MVP odds have improved Two-time MVP Seth Curry saw his average odds go from +1600 to +650 from October 23rd to November 1st, and two-time Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard  saw his average odds go from +950 to +650 during that same period.

Curry leads the league in scoring at 33 points per game and is nailing an absurd 52.9% of his three-point attempts. His ability to fill up the bucket has the Warriors off to a 7-1 start and well on their way to winning their third consecutive NBA championship.

Leonard, meanwhile, has bounced back with a vengeance after missing 73 games in 2017-18. The two-time All-Star is averaging a career-high 27.3 points per game to go along with 7.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and two swipes. He has the 7-1 Raptors off to their best start in franchise history and in sole possession of first place in the Atlantic Division.

Toronto was already an excellent team before Leonard came on board, but the Klaw gives them an elite closer capable of getting buckets at one end of the court and shutting down the opposition’s top scorer at the other.

Should You Bet on the Greek Freak?

Antetokounmpo is off to a sensational start, but you won’t get much value at +375. We’re sticking with Anthony Davis, who offers a little more bang for the buck at +450 instead.

The Brow has been in the top three in MVP odds since August 9th and is filling up the stat sheet on a nightly basis with eye-popping averages of 25.2 points, 13 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 2 steals, and 3.2 blocks per game. He’s an integral part of the second most prolific squad in the NBA, and is arguably more valuable to his team than Curry, Leonard, or Antetokounmpo.

Davis is filling up the stat sheet on a nightly basis with eye-popping averages of 25.2 points, 13 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 2 steals, and 3.2 blocks per game.

Consider this: The Pelicans lost both games in which Davis sat earlier this year and have a net differential of +30.7 when he’s on the court. That’s a HUGE swing and it speaks volumes about his ability at both ends of the court. Davis finished in the top three in MVP and Defensive Player of the Year balloting in 2018, and we firmly believe 2019 will be the year he finally breaks through.

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