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Heat Are League Best 12-3-1 ATS; Getting 7 Points in Houston

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 12:11 PM PDT

Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo reacting during a stoppage in play
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been a big reason to Miami's surprising 12-4 start this season. Photo from @TheNBACentral (Twitter).
  • Heat visit Rockets, trying to extend Houston’s losing streak to four 
  • Miami stellar defensively as usual, but humming along on offense too
  • Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below

If the Houston Rockets (11-6, 6-2 home), want to snap out of their three-game skid, they’re going to have to do it against the team that’s put the biggest beating on them this season, as the Miami Heat (12-4, 5-4 away) visit the Toyota Center Wednesday night. Tip off is at 8pm ET.

That 129-100 thrashing on Nov. 3 — a score that doesn’t begin to tell how badly the Rockets were dismantled — has set the Heat on a path few would have expected when the season started: standing tall among the heavies in the Eastern Conference, easily the most surprising team through a month and change this season.

Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Odds

Team Spread Over/Under
Miami Heat +7 (-105) Over 227.5 (-115)
Houston Rockets -7 (-115) Under 227.5 (-105)

Odds taken November 26.

The Heat vs Rockets odds show that Miami has also been a betting darling , with an NBA-best 12-3-1 mark against the spread. Let’s see if this is a trend that will continue in Houston.

Deep Miami Roster a Big Advantage

One of the trademarks of an Erik Spoelstra-coached team is the Heat always come to play, particularly on the defensive end. No change here: Miami is tied for second in the NBA in defensive rating, surrendering just 102.6 points per 100 possessions.

They really stand out defending the arc, holding teams to an NBA-worst 31% shooting from three point range, even though teams are jacking them up at a rate of 36.1 attempts a contest, the fourth-highest average in the league.

Offensively, they’re blossoming. The Heat lead the league in shooting from the field, hitting on a healthy 48.1% clip, and rank third overall at 38.8% from three-point range. Their 25.9 assists per game average is tied for seventh-best.

Jimmy Butler leads the way with 18.9 points per game, one of seven Heat players averaging double-digit scoring clips. Their top-five players in three-point attempts per game shoot no worse than 38% (Tyler Herro), with Kelly Olynyk leading at 43.1%.

The key to all this just might be Bam Adebayo. The modern-day big (read: a 6’9″ center) is central to all the Heat does, averaging 14.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.6 blocks while putting his name into the defensive player of the year conversation.

James Harden or Bust for Rockets

No disrespect to Russ Westbrook, or PJ Tucker or anyone else on the Rockets, but for them to be successful, James Harden needs to score at supernova levels for them to win, and even then it might not be enough. During this current three-game slide, his 32 points and 11 assists should be good enough to be a winning line, but the Rockets were crushed by the Mavericks, 137-123.

Against elite competition, like the Clippers, Harden dropped 37 and 13 but they lost 122-119. When he went for 27 and seven assists in Denver, it was just the fourth time all season he was held to under 30 points in a game, and the Rockets were held to just 95 points.

Harden is averaging 37.9 points a game (despite major and unprecedented double-team attention thrown his way), and the Rockets are second in the league in scoring at 118.2 points a contest, but it hasn’t always been pretty. The Rockets own the fifth-worst shooting percentage from beyond the arc (33.3%) and lead the league in attempts at 45.5 a game. They’re 23rd in the NBA at 44.4% shooting from the field, but they make up some of the difference by leading the league in free throw attempts at just under 30 trips a night.

There is no defensive side of things to pick them up: Houston is in the bottom 10 in points allowed, one of just nine teams to allow better than 115 points a game. Harden is so good that most nights he outscores a thin roster that doesn’t defend or shoot well.

What’s the Best Bet?

The Heat are a solid 5-3-1 ATS away from home, while the Rockets are just 8-9 ATS this season. Expect to see a better effort from the Rockets, who were down 59-18 at one point in the second quarter the last time these teams played. But you’re going to get more of the same from the Heat, who will find a way to absorb the best shot that Harden throws, and keep this one close throughout.

The pick: Heat +7 (-105)

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