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Heat vs Hornets Picks & Odds (Jan. 29)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball

Jan 28, 2023 · 6:46 PM PST

Jimmy Butler drives to the hoop versus the Hornets
Nov 12, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) shoots the ball around Charlotte Hornets forward P.J. Washington (25) during the second half at FTX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
  • Miami is giving 6 points on the road in Charlotte in the Heat vs Hornets odds on Sunday
  • The Heat are a dismal 12-21-3 ATS as favorites this season
  • Check out the latest Heat vs Hornets odds, plus injury news and best bets

After a slow start to the season, the Heat (28-22, 11-13 away) are starting to look more and more like the team that was a conference finals runner-up in 2022.

Miami will have a chance to continue its strong recent form on Sunday, as they face a Hornets team (14-36, 6-16 home) that has the fewest home wins in the league.

Oddsmakers are certainly bullish on the Heat’s chances for success in this matinee affair, as they opened Miami as the heavy road chalk in the NBA odds

Heat vs Hornets Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Heat -6 (-110) -240 OFF
Charlotte Hornets +6 (-110) +200 OFF

Odds as of January 28th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook bonus code to bet on the Heat vs Hornets game.

The Heat are currently favored by 6 points, in a contest without a total as of Saturday evening. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 pm ET at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC, a building where Hornets have won just six times all campaign.



Heat vs Hornets Betting Analysis

A seventh home victory for Charlotte seems unlikely given how Miami is playing. The Heat have won three straight and 12 of their last 17 overall. That’s vaulted them into the Southeast Division lead, and it’s no surprise they’ve turned the corner now that their roster is almost entirely healthy.

Miami is still missing starting forward Duncan Robinson, but Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are all of the injury report, after being staples on and off over the last handful of weeks.

With their starting lineup mostly intact, the Heat have beaten the Celtics, the favorites in the NBA Championship odds, this week as well as the Pelicans who are the fourth seed in the West.

They’re fresh off a 110-105 victory over a surging Orlando squad, going on a 19-6 fourth quarter rally to erase an 8 point deficit. Along the way, they held the opposition below 106 points for a third straight outing, and for the sixth time in their last eight games.

Defense has long been a staple of Erik Spoelstra’s tenure, and this season is no exception. Miami ranks fourth in defensive rating this season, and number one in that category over the past 10 games. The offense meanwhile, checks in at number 26 over the past 10 games, but fortunately for them they’re facing one of the worst defenses in the league on Sunday.

Charlotte ranks 27th in defensive rating this season, and 28th in points allowed. They’ve dropped 21 of their past 28 overall, and are 0-2 against Miami in 2022-23. Over the past 10 games, the Hornets have yielded at least 120 points six times, and north of 115 points in all but one outing.

As porous as the defense has been, the offense has performed even worse. Charlotte ranks dead last in offensive rating. Only the Rockets shoot a lower percentage from the field, while the Hornets are the worst three-point shooting team in the Association.

Heat vs Hornets Prediction

But it’s not all doom and gloom for the Hornets. For starters, they’re fresh off a victory over the Bulls, and have actually won three of their past five games. They’ve covered in each of those victories, and are 6-4 ATS in 10 conference tilts so far.

That includes a 1-1 ATS mark versus the Heat, who just can’t help themselves from playing close games regardless of the competition. Miami’s average score margin this season is +0.4 points. Each of their past three outings have been decided by 5 points or less, and the Heat are 2-8 against the spread in the last 10 instances they’ve been laying more than 4.5 points.

Miami has the third worst cover rate of any team in the league, something that’s not hard to believe when you rank 30th out of 30 teams in points per game. They’ve been especially bad against the spread as favorites, posting a 12-21-3 ATS mark in 37 opportunities. Miami may win on Sunday, but don’t expect a convincing victory.

Pick: Charlotte Hornets +6 (-110)


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