Heat vs Lakers Props – Best Player Prop Bets for NBA Finals Game 1

• The NBA Finals get underway on Wednesday September 30th at 9:00pm EST
• As the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers duel in the series opener, DraftKings are offering an array of player props
• Three of the best props for you to bet on have been selected and outlined below

Game 1 of the 2020 NBA Finals tips off on Wednesday September 30th. The Los Angeles Lakers represent the Western Conference and the Miami Heat have the honor for the East – it’s a highlight of the sporting calendar, and one that will attract a lot of money from sports bettors.

A range of player props are available as sports fans ponder their Game 1 wagers. From triple-doubles to threes made and total points, there are options galore.

We are looking to find the best value bets in this player props market – below is a table with the odds for the best bets.

NBA Finals Game 1 Player Props

Odds taken from DraftKings on September 29th

LeBron the Facilitator

Which LeBron James will we see on Wednesday? Will he be the scorer that clinched Game 5 against the Nuggets? Will he work his way into the series, feeding the ball to Anthony Davis and perimeter shooters?

The answer to those questions is not simply on what James fancies. How Miami defend him will determine how he approaches Game 1. Erik Spoelstra knows James as well as any coach in the NBA, and while he’s a slightly different player now, the formula remains similar. Spoelstra will send help on James’ drives, and pack any lanes towards the basket.

Jimmy Butler, Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder will all take turns at guarding James, and the Heat will be unafraid to send help.

It’s the ‘don’t let him beat you’ mantra. Of course that is reductive – LeBron is going score plenty – but it’s a general message to take the ball out of his hands when possible. Throw bodies in front of him in transition and protect the rim at all costs. Spoelstra has built LeBron-slowing defenses in the past, and he will follow a similar plan to start this series.

Lakers also had some December struggles against Miami's 2-3 zone. Six straight empty possessions — four turnovers, two missed 3s. pic.twitter.com/lHVrwypywG

— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) September 29, 2020

James has the ability to dominate even if Spoelstra follows that blueprint. He can find a way to the basket, he can draw fouls, or he can take over as a point guard, waiting for the help and firing to open shooters.

The four-time MVP has recorded nine or more assists in eight of the Lakers’ 15 post-season games. Spoelstra will be happy if James is acting primarily as a facilitator, forced to pass rather than drive and made to settle for jumpers.

Pick: LeBron James Over 8.5 assists (-129)

Rondo Stays Hot

Although favorites in the NBA Championship odds for much of the season, the Lakers faced uncertainty over who would be their third guy on offense.

Rajon Rondo has stepped into that role since returning from injury, giving playmaking and handy scoring off the bench – his pick-and-roll game had the Nuggets defense in a mess.

Playoff Rondo in full effect 🔒 pic.twitter.com/58zcfoZOE0

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 23, 2020

Rondo is playing 24 minutes per game. He’s scoring 9.1 points per contest and averaging 7.2 dimes with 1.6 steals. The former Celtic has been excellent at both ends of the floor. Perhaps most remarkably, Rondo is shooting a shade under 45% from three in this post-season. It’s on a decent number of attempts too (2.9 per game).

How the Heat defend Rondo on the perimeter will be fascinating. In the same way Spoelstra will want to take the ball out of LeBron’s hands, they should – in theory – be happy enough for Rondo to keep taking jumpers. Defenses have given him space to shoot in these playoffs and he’s made them pay, though.

With the odd shot from deep and excellent passing, Rondo sprinkles in the occasional drive off into the paint. He’s usually looking for the lob or pass in that situation, but sometimes he’ll use that as a decoy and work his way to a lay-up.

Rondo's demeanor says it all. He's ready for the NBA Finals. pic.twitter.com/2yZUjZkSG7

— LAKERFANATICS (@LAKERFANATICS) September 27, 2020

Rondo has only scored over 8.5 in two of the Lakers’ last six games. With his knack for delivering in the big moments, and the favorable matchups he could get on the perimeter, however, the over is a decent bet at +110.

Pick: Rajon Rondo Over 8.5 points (+110)

Hot and Cold Duncan Robinson

The task of chasing Duncan Robinson around the perimeter was noted in our Game 1 preview. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green will have the majority of that exhausting assignment. Robinson has taken almost 89% of his shots from beyond the arc in the playoffs and shot 40% on such attempts. He’s a truly elite shooter with a high, quick release, capable of firing over closing out defenders and ruthless at punishing defenders who leave him any space.

The undrafted wing has hit 2.9 threes per game in this post-season. That alone explains why the price is shorter on the ‘over’ for this prop, but like so many shooters, his production is streaky. He’s drained four or more threes in five playoff games, but four times he’s hit none or one.

We are so proud of you @D_Bo20 !
👌🏻👌🏻👌🏻#GoBlue ➡️ #ProBlue
〽️🏀 pic.twitter.com/7VWHl7rBuq

— Michigan Men's Basketball (@umichbball) September 28, 2020

How many minutes he plays is obviously important for this bet. Robinson has had trouble with fouls at points in these playoffs, resulting in fewer minutes and shots. A weak link on the defensive end too, how he starts the game is crucial. Poor shooting in the first half and Robinson is much less likely to see major minutes late on – a hot start, as he had with four first quarter threes in Game 2 of the Conference Finals, and he will get more minutes.

If this prop is going to hit, there’s a good chance it happens in the first half, or maybe even the opening 12 minutes. With the Lakers expected to start Dwight Howard, the paint will be crowded for Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. Miami will be forced to their three-point game early on, and Robinson could get off to a strong start.

Robinson to hit over 2.5 threes, even at -167, looks a good bet. The +700 to score the first basket is a tempter, too.

Pick: Over 2.5 threes (-167)