Heat vs Lakers Game 1 NBA Finals Odds and Picks
- The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers meet in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday September 30th
- Miami returns to the Finals for the first time since LeBron James left the franchise in 2014
- Get the latest odds, betting discussion and a pick below
The NBA Finals are finally here. It is the longest of seasons, but the league has made it to the end-of-season showpiece, albeit in the alien surroundings of Disney World’s bubble and with no crowds.
Miami and Los Angeles do battle for the title. The Lakers are hoping to equal the Celtics’ all-time championship tally. The Heat are looking for their fourth title and first without LeBron James since 2006.
The underdogs throughout the last two series, that’s where Miami are again, as shown in the Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers odds below.
Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers Game 1 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | +5 (-110) | +175 | O 217.5 (-110) |
| Los Angeles Lakers | -5 (-110) | -215 | U 217.5 (-110) |
Odds taken from DraftKings on September 29th
Lakers Start Slow
The Lakers lost their opening games to the Portland Trail Blazers and Houston Rockets. They, of course, came back to win those two series in five games, but there was a sense of figuring it out in Game 1. James was notably less aggressive, happy to play facilitator on his way to 16 assists in Game 1 against Portland and taking only 15 shots in the loss to Houston.
The four-time MVP took over in the fourth quarter as the Lakers saw off the Nuggets. Will he start the Finals in the same manner? Or will we see another strong first quarter followed by a lull in the second and third?
How James approaches the series opener will be important – it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play passively as he works his way into the series, figuring out what his former coach, Erik Spoelstra, will throw at him.
we been underdogs our entire life, everybody up here got a chip on their shoulder. – @Bam1of1 pic.twitter.com/5AyYX6HN7x
— Jimmy Butler (@JimmyButler) September 28, 2020
The onus then falls on Anthony Davis to go to the basket. Davis leads the playoffs in free throw attempts – forcing fouls early in the game could be crucial. If Bam Adebayo gets into foul trouble, Spoelstra is in a very difficult position to put sufficient size on the floor to compete with the Lakers.
Howard’s Influence
Having been unplayable against the Houston Rockets, Dwight Howard shone for the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Howard had a net rating of +22, and the Nuggets had no answer to his physicality inside as he scored 8.2 points per game on a barely believable 74.9% true shooting.
Dwight Howard: “I promised myself if I ever got a chance to get back, I would give it everything I’ve got. I’m exhausted.”
Dwight’s last trip to the Finals was sealed in this same city 11 years ago, when he played for the Magic – against the Lakers. pic.twitter.com/r90WvpbxGS— Rachel Nichols (@Rachel__Nichols) September 27, 2020
Frank Vogel is likely going to stick with Howard in the starting lineup for the Finals. He won’t play a lot of minutes (probably around the 20), and Davis will play the five in crunch time, but the time he spends on the floor is important.
The Lakers are loaded with size and rebounding, and the Heat often play small.
Spoelstra faces interesting matchup questions with Howard. He favored ultra-small lineups in non-Adebayo minutes late in the Conference Finals, playing Andre Iguodala as a nominal five. Those lineups dragged Enes Kanter around the floor.
While Howard is a much better defender and more mobile than Kanter, Spoelstra could take a similar approach and look to play Howard off the court. It’s a risky philosophy – Howard could dominate the boards – but loading up on shooting might be the best way to limit his effectiveness inside.
Heat to Cover
Miami has the personnel to slow down James and the off-ball movement to challenge Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on the defensive end. Their outside shooting gives them options on offense even with the Lakers’ elite rim protection.
LeBron James to me before Game 5.
LeBron James to me after Game 5. pic.twitter.com/InEC2U6BEd
— Chris Haynes (@ChrisBHaynes) September 27, 2020
The line hasn’t moved since opening with Lakers as five point favorities, but the total has slightly come down.
After how James played in Game 5 of the Conference Finals, it’s hard to feel too confident about the Heat’s moneyline, though. Backing them to cover is the better value.
Pick: Miami Heat +5 (-110)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
