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Heat vs Celtics Game 7 Odds, Picks and Preview

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

May 28, 2022 · 7:51 PM PDT

Jayson Tatum defended by Jimmy Butler
May 27, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) moves the ball against Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) during the first half in game six of the 2022 eastern conference finals at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
  • Heat and Celtics battle in Game 7 for a trip to the NBA Finals
  • Boston has gone 0-5 in East Final-clinching games since 2010
  • See the  Celtics vs Heat Game 7 odds, preview and prediction below

There’s just one ticket left to the boss stage, where the Golden State Warriors await.

On Sunday, we’ll find out who their dance partner will be in the NBA Finals, as the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat face off in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

It tips off at 8:30pm ET from Miami’s FTX Arena, in a game that can be seen live on ESPN.

Celtics vs Heat Game 7 Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Boston Celtics -136 -2.5 (-110) Ov 195.5 (-110)
Miami Heat +118 +2.5 (-110) Un 195.5 (-110)

Odds as of May 28th at FanDuel

The line hasn’t moved since the end of Game 6, when Miami went into Boston and gutted out a 111-103 win  to even the series at 3-3. It’s still the visiting Celtics by 2.5 points, but of interest is the total, which fell three points from an already-low 198.5 total on Thursday.

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Celtics Betting Analysis

Boston’s struggles started almost from opening tip, when they fell behind 12-5 in the early going. Coupled with Al Horford banished to the bench with two early fouls, the C’s were playing uphill for most of the game.

They’ve been much better starters on the road, going +12 in the first quarter in Games 1,2 and 5, leading twice and trailing by only two in the other.

Boston will also need to generate offense from Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who were low-impact players in the second half of Game 6. After each potted 18 first-half points, they combined to take only seven shots the rest of the way, with one attempt each in the fourth quarter.

Head coach Ime Udoka was pleased with their willingness to take what the defense offered — resulting in Derrick White dropping 22 points, including a 4-for-7 mark from deep, while adding five assists, White’s best scoring night since joining the Celtics in midseason — but said still finding their spots was important, especially in a winner-take-all scenario.

We’re also going to have to wait till closer to gametime about the final roster. Marcus Smart (ankle), should be a go, but Robert Williams III (knee), has been in and out of the lineup all playoffs. He didn’t play a single second in the fourth quarter last game.

Heat Betting Analysis

After two demoralizing and lifeless losses pushed them to the brink of elimination the Miami Heat came out with their grittiest performance of the playoffs, going into Boston and getting a win that breathes new life into their season — at least for one more game.

Much of that is on the strength of Jimmy Butler’s virtuoso performance, dropping a playoff career-high 47 points, adding nine rebounds, eight assists and four steals.

The Heat offered just enough backup to their star that allowed them to land the plane. Kyle Lowry, a non factor almost all playoffs, came out of nowhere to drop 18 points and 10 assists, while Max Strus, who had missed 14 straight shots heading into Game 6, had 13 points and went 3-for-8 from three-point range.

As a team, the Heat went 15-for-35 from three-point range, a major upgrade from the 7-for-45 abomination from distance last game.

There could be more help on the way: Tyler Herro has missed three straight games, but will give his wonky groin a test to see if he can add some extra offense.

Defensively, the Heat were more aggressive, forcing 10 steals, part of 17 total Boston turnovers, while banking on the rest of the Celtics not beating them if they paid extra attention to Tatum and Brown.

Celtics vs Heat Pick

There is one ugly streak Boston is trying to break. Since their last appearance in the NBA Finals in 2010, the C’s have gone 0-5 in East Final-clinching games.

It’s such an uphill battle in this one, as Game 7’s are usually a good advantage for the home team, though the most recent history has the road team winning three of the last four Game 7’s.

They’ve dropped Game 2 and 5, but Miami has never been beaten three times at home in a series in franchise history. In fact, from the Conference Finals forward, it’s happened just 10 times in the last 40 seasons. The last team to do it was the Raptors, who won three times at Golden State in the 2019 NBA Finals.

We’ll stick with the home side, but man, that adjusted total is just begging the over. Assuming Miami’s offense doesn’t go into the tank like it did in Games 4 and 5, these games have been average scoring — and they’ve crossed this total four times in six games in this series.

The pick: Heat +2.5 (-110) and OVER 195.5 (-110)

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