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Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Jun 12, 2023 · 7:44 AM PDT

Nikola Jokic arm up celebrating
Jun 9, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) reacts after a play against the Miami Heat during the fourth quarter in game four of the 2023 NBA Finals at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Denver Nuggets will try to close out the Miami Heat to win the NBA Finals in Game 5 Monday
  • Denver took Game 4 108-95 to take a commanding 3-1 series lead
  • Don’t miss the latest Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 odds, analysis and our betting prediction

For the first time in these NBA Finals, the Larry O’Brien Trophy will be in the building. The Denver Nuggets have the chance hoist him up for the first time in franchise history.

Only the Miami Heat can force him back into the box and back on a flight to South Beach.

After losing home court advantage with their first home loss of the playoffs in Game 2, Denver went to work on the road, taking Games 3 and 4 to set them up for a title celebration with a win at home.

Game 5 goes Monday (June 12) at 8:30pm ET from Ball Arena in Denver, CO. You can watch the game live on ABC.

Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Heat +9.0 (-117) +287 Ov 209 (-117)
Denver Nuggets -9.0 (-117) -454 Un 209 (-117)

As has been the case through the final two rounds of the playoffs, the NBA betting odds are showing zero respect for the Heat, listing them as 9-point underdogs.

Denver’s -454 odds on the moneyline give them an implied win probability of 81.95%. The total has again tumbled, dropping another 1.5 points from last game to settle in at 209.

Only one team in NBA Finals history has overcome a 3-1 series deficit to win it all: the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, who rode LeBron James and Kyrie Irving to an improbable upset of the 73-9 Golden Sate Warriors.


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Odds as of June 11 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim a Caesars promo code to bet on Heat vs Nuggets Game 5. 

Heat Swept in South Beach

Miami was competitive in Game 4, but as has been the recurring theme this series, didn’t have the offensive punch to finish off the game, losing 108-95 to push them to the brink.

The game was there for the taking, as Nikola Jokic was forced to the bench after picking up his fifth foul early in the fourth quarter. Miami cut a 13-point deficit to as little as five, but ran out of steam.

Jimmy Butler had 25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists, while Bam Adebayo went for 20 points and 11 rebounds. Duncan Robinson (12), Caleb Martin (11) and Kyle Lowry (13) all scored in double figures off the bench, but it wasn’t enough.

The starting backcourt of Gabe Vincent and Max Strus were milk-carton missing, as they combined to shoot 1-for-10 for two points and five rebounds.

Miami has scored 95 points or less in all three losses. There are no reinforcements on the way, either, as Tyler Herro (hand) still hasn’t been cleared for activity.

Total Nuggets Effort in Game 4

It was a hell of a night for Aaron Gordon to deliver the best game of his postseason career.

With Jokic in foul trouble and Jamal Murray nowhere near as potent as he was in Game 3, Gordon carried the Nuggets with 27 points, seven rebounds and six assists, hitting 11-for-15 from the floor.

They also got a massive boost from Bruce Brown, who scored 21 off the bench on 8-for-11 shooting.

Jokic finished with 23 points, 12 rebounds, four assists, three steals and three blocks.

Murray went for 15 points and 12 dimes. While he shot only 5-for-17 from the floor, he became the first person in NBA Finals history to record 10 or more assists in their first four games.

Denver is putting up their lowest point total in a series these playoffs at 107.3, but they’re still shooting 50.8% from the field and 37.6% from three-point range.

They’re also holding the Heat to just 98.3 points per game on 42.4% shooting. Miami’s 36.6% mark from distance is what’s keeping them in these games.

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Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 Prediction

Miami is 0-6 against the spread in their last six coming off a double-digit loss at home, and they’re just 1-4 ATS in their last five in Denver.

The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall, and have been the bet vs the Heat, running a 28-10 ATS mark in the last 38 matchups.

And yet, Miami thrives in these situations. In four road games against the Celtics, Miami was a 7.5-point underdog or higher, and won outright three of those times. They’ve also taken one out of two in the same scenario in the Mile High city.

This may be the end of the NBA season, but there’s a series parlay to have here: expect the Heat to cover, and for the two teams to get more offensive. Game 2 is the only one the teams cracked the over — Miami’s only win this series.

The pick: Heat +9 and OVER 209 points (+244)

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