Knicks vs Heat Game 4 Picks and Player Props to Target (May 8)
- The New York Knicks are +150 underdogs in Game 4 of their Round 2 series vs the Miami Heat
- Jimmy Butler returned in Game 3 and helped Miami win 105-86 to take a 2-1 series lead
- Check out the latest Knicks vs Heat Game 4 picks, plus injury news, betting splits and prop bets to target
The Miami Heat became the first play-in team to win a playoff series. They’re angling to be the first to book a trip to the Conference Finals in the East’s NBA Playoff Bracket.
In their way is a Knicks team desperate to find offense after a slog of a performance in a Game 3 loss.
New York will try to get the all-important road split and send this series back to Gotham tied 2-2. Fail, and it’s a nearly insurmountable 3-1 deficit.
Game 4 goes Monday (May 8) at 7:30pm ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL. You can watch the game live on TNT.
Knicks vs Heat Game 4 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | +4.5 (-110) | +150 | O 206.5 (-110) |
| Miami Heat | -4.5 (-110) | -175 | U 206.5 (-110) |
The NBA odds have the hometown Heat as 4.5-point favorites, and -175 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 63.64%.
After Miami’s 105-86 win in Game 3, where the two teams didn’t even crack the 200-point plateau, oddsmakers have dropped the line from 209 nearly three points to 206.5.
The Knicks tied for the 3rd-best road record in the NBA this season at 24-17, though they’re just 2-2 away from MSG in the playoffs.
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Odds as of May 7 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Betting Analysis
It’s no surprise New York ebbs and flows in this series with Jalen Brunson. He was one of many Knicks who struggled mightily in Game 3, shooting 7-for-20 from the field for 20 points, with eight dimes and six boards.
He also went 0-for-5 from three-point range, the second game he’s been shut out from distance in this series. Not surprisingly, the Knicks have lost both. He also looked to tweak his ankle, but should be a go in Game 4.
Ian Begley: "Jalen, I think I know how you're gonna answer this, but, is your ankle impacting you while you're out there?"
Jalen Brunson: "How am I gonna answer it?"
Begley: "You're gonna say 'I'm good to play, and that's it'"
Brunson: "I'm good to play, and that's it" pic.twitter.com/OhbnwDxCoX
— New York Basketball (@NBA_NewYork) May 6, 2023
Julius Randle also missed all five three-point attempts, finishing with 10 points and 14 rebounds, shooting 26.7% for the game and committing four turnovers. RJ Barrett’s 20+ point streak ended at four games, as he had 14 points on 5-for-16 shooting (31.2%).
They’re also likely to be without guard Immanuel Quickley. The runner-up for NBA Sixth Man of the Year, Quickley sprained his ankle in Game 3 and didn’t return. He was having his biggest impact in the series, with 12 points before going down.
New York is the lowest scoring team left in the playoffs, and they’re averaging 99.3 points per game on 42.1% shooting from the field and 27.2% from distance against Miami.
Miami Betting Analysis
The Butler did it. Again.
After an ankle injury sidelined him in a Game 2 loss, Jimmy Butler returned and carried the Heat to a win, pumping in 28 points, four rebounds and three assists.
It’s the ninth straight playoff game Butler has gone for 25+ points. He’s averaging 26.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in the series. However, it appeared he re-aggravated that ankle injury in the third quarter, visibly limping in breaks of play.
Jimmy Butler in the Game 3 W:
28 PTS
4 REB
3 ASTHeat lead the series 2-1 🔥 pic.twitter.com/0OFuYgpS3D
— NBA (@NBA) May 6, 2023
Bam Adebayo chipped in with 17 points and 12 boards, while Max Strus had 19 points and three rebounds.
Miami has had their of offensive woes too: they shot only 38.9% in Game 3, including a dreadful 7-for-32 mark from downtown, a 21.9% clip.
They’ve won the little in-game battles to get ahead. Last game, they were +12 in free throw points, +13 in points in the paint, and held their own in the rebound battle, finishing +2.
Knicks vs Heat Prop Bets & Predictions
If you’re looking for prop bets, expect Brunson to show up. For a guy who’s hit the 20-point plateau every game this postseason, 24.5 points at -115 is a gimme.
If you’re into patterns, Bam Adebayo has gone over 3.5 assists and followed it up the next game by going under. Adebayo just had zero assists in Game 3, so let’s take the over at +115 odds.
Has Julius Randle lost his three-point stroke? He has gone 0-fer in three of his last four games. I don’t think he’ll get goosed again, but going under 2.5 makes at +100 odds is worth making.
As for the matchup, Miami is now 6-0 against the spread in their last six, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in the last five matchups with the Heat.
And yet, it’s impossible to not look at that total. The highest output of any team in this series is 111 points, but these two teams have cruised past this 206.5 total in Games 1 & 2. The over is also 4-1 in the last five meetings in Miami.
In a high stakes match, the defense takes a back seat to the shot makers on both sides.
Pick: OVER 206.5 points (-110)
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Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
