Luka Doncic Overtakes Giannis Antetokounmpo in Updated NBA MVP Odds a Week Away from Season Tip-Off

• Luka Doncic is the favorite to win the 2021 NBA MVP, just ahead of back-to-back winner Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Steph Curry sits third at +800 with Lakers star duo LeBron James and Anthony Davis priced at +900
• Where does the betting value lie in the MVP market? See updated odds below

Despite coming off back-to-back MVP seasons, Giannis Antetokounmpo has to settle for second-favorite in the pre-season betting for the 2021 MVP. Luka Doncic is the favorite with a week until the regular season gets underway.

Former winners Steph Curry and LeBron James are at +800, and +900, respectively – James is joined by teammate Anthony Davis at that price.

Returning from injury, Kevin Durant is in at +1200, comfortably ahead of Damian Lillard and Jayson Tatum. With uncertainty over his future, James Harden is at +2000.

The table below has the top ten in NBA MVP odds.

2020-21 NBA MVP Odds

Odds taken on Dec 16 from DraftKings

Doncic Becomes Favorite

While Giannis Antetokounmpo’s usage rate may drop with the arrival of Jrue Holiday, Luka Doncic is set to take at least as many shots as he did last season. The Mavericks did not add another star, despite plenty of rumors, and Kristaps Porzingis’ health means Doncic will spend a lot of time as the lone All-Star-level talent. The loss of Seth Curry is notable, too.

Dallas was the most efficient offense in league history last season. Everything ran through Doncic – there’s little reason to tweak that formula. They should be a better defensive team this year with the addition of Josh Richardson. The Mavs have the upside to finish in the top four in the West and could even break up the top three of the Lakers, Clippers and Nuggets.

Doncic’s usage of 36.8% could increase in 2020-21. He took over 20 shots per game – could that reach 22 or 23? An uptick in efficiency is expected, particularly from three-point range after shooting 31.6% from deep last season.

The Western Conference is deep, and incredibly competitive, but there’s a solid case to be made that Dallas is the fourth-best team in the Conference. A top-four seed, and again averaging a near triple-double will put Doncic in prime position to win the first MVP of what is set to be an all-time career.

Holiday Gives Giannis a Break

Antetokounmpo was the only player in the league with a higher usage rate than Doncic. He averaged just under 20 shots per game (in 30.4 minutes), but scored at a phenomenal efficiency. The trade for Jrue Holiday was, in part, to diversify the Bucks’ offense. Holiday will handle it more and he will take more shots than Eric Bledsoe did.

Bledsoe averaged 11.5 attempts per contest last season. Holiday has been higher than that every season since his rookie year and sat at 16.5 in 2019-20. Antetokounmpo is going to spend more time off-ball, particularly as a screener. His assists could well drop from the 5.6 he registered last term.

One way for Antetokounmpo to boost his numbers would be to play more minutes, but that’s very unlikely while Mike Budenholzer remains head coach.

If it comes down to Doncic versus Antetokounmpo, the Greek Freak’s defense could, and perhaps should, give him the edge.

Voter fatigue is an important factor here, though. Antetokounmpo probably needs to take his game to another level to join Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird as the only players to win three MVPs in a row.

Lillard Represents Value

Dame Lillard led the NBA in minutes per game last season as he hauled a depleted Portland Trail Blazers into the playoffs. Portland was active this offseason and has most of their key pieces healthy ahead of the 2020-21 season – Robert Covington’s arrival should improve them defensively without needing to take shots away from Lillard and CJ McCollum.

Lillard and Jayson Tatum have seen their odds shorten substantially over the last month. James Harden’s price sliding is a factor in that, but it’s also a reflection of how highly the Blazers are viewed. Tatum moved in as a reaction to Gordon Hayward’s departure and Kemba Walker’s injury problems, while Lillard moving in to +1600 is about how good this Portland roster can be.

He isn’t as high-usage as Harden, Doncic or Antetokounmpo, but Lillard has ranked top 10 in field goal attempts per game in each of the last five seasons. Only Harden and Bradley Beal scored more points per game than Lillard in 2019-20. He was fifth in assists, too.

Much like Doncic taking the Mavericks into the top four of the West, Lillard has the same aim this season. If he can earn homecourt in the first round, while scoring 30 and assisting eight or nine per game, he’s going to have a compelling case for MVP.