Mavericks vs Warriors Picks & Player Props to Target on Xmas

• My favorite Mavericks vs Warriors player prop is Anthony Davis Over 12.5 rebounds at plus odds
• I’m also targeting the Over on Steph Curry made threes
• See my Mavericks vs Warriors player props to bet for Christmas Day

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It’s the middle-match of the Christmas Day slate, as the Dallas Mavericks (12-19, 3-9 away) travel to the Bay Area to take on the Golden State Warriors (15-15, 9-4 home) inside the Chase Center at 5:00 pm ET. Dallas vs Golden State will air nationally on both ABC and ESPN.

The Warriors, nestled into the play-in zone as the current 8-seed, are healthy 8-point favorites over the Mavericks — currently just a half-game out of the 10-spot in conference — in the NBA odds.

It’s the start of a three-game trip out west for Dallas, and they couldn’t have gotten a better send-off than a thrilling 131-130 win over Denver. As always, though, injuries could hamper the Mavs in sustaining any type of success. The Dubs, meanwhile, have won two in a row, but a Draymond Green drama is all that’s making headlines.

Check out the main Mavericks vs Warriors player props below, followed by my favorite prop picks to target in this Christmas Day clash.

Mavericks vs Warriors Player Props Market

Odds and lines in the table represent the consensus across sportsbooks circa 12:01 pm ET. For up-to-the-minute odds, bookmark SBD’s NBA player props page.

Notable Line Movement

Steph Curry Points (28.5 to 27.5)
Both DraftKings and BetMGM maintain Curry a 28.5 scoring clip, but his line has dropped a point at FanDuel to 27.5. In the end, that one point might not actually matter: in 11 Christmas Day games, the Warriors’ star has gone sub-20 points nine times. He’s gone for 30+ two other occasions, and those have come in the last three years, including a Christmas-best 38 against LA last year.

Draymond Green Rebounds (5.5 to 6.5)
After opening at 5.5 rebounds at FanDuel, Draymond Green has seen his rebounding prop jump to 6.5 at BetMGM and bet365, and DraftKings giving healthy +110 odds to hit the seven rebounds. That’s a far more attractive number than the -158 for going Over 5.5 rebounds.

Mavericks vs Warriors: Player-Prop Picks & Predictions

Having broken down the matchup, and considering at variables like team trends, statistical analysis for each player, both against the opponent vs recent form, I’ve landed on a pair of props that offer good value.

Best Bet #1: Anthony Davis Over 12.5 Rebounds (+112) at FanDuel

As you can see above, Caesars is offering this prop at 11.5 rebounds, though the juice comes in at -132. We’ll stick with FanDuel’s and take the plus odds.

Look, when Davis is healthy, there’s no questioning he’s one of the five or 10 best big men on planet earth. AD has missed just one game this month, and he’s been awesome in December, averaging 23.2 points and pulling down 12.8 rebounds over the nine games.

Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis combine for 64 POINTS in Dallas' W over Denver!

🤠 Flagg: 33 PTS, 9 REB, 9 AST, 4 3PM
🤠 Davis: 31 PTS, 9 REB, 3 STL

Mavs win their 5TH STRAIGHT at home! pic.twitter.com/On3sKRkUBK

— NBA (@NBA) December 24, 2025

He’s topped 12.5 rebounds six times in those games, falling Under 10 rebounds just three times.

Davis has also had good success against the Warriors. In the last three games where he played more than 30 minutes (he left two games due injury, playing a combined 19 minutes), he has pulled down at least 13 rebounds.

There just aren’t big, active bodies on the Warriors’ roster that should be able to contain him.

Best Bet #2: Steph Curry Over 4.5 Three-Point Makes (+144) at FanDuel

Is it ever a bad time to bet the Over on Steph Curry 3-point makes?

Since the start of November, Curry has drilled at least five triples in eight of the 15 games he has played, and he’s missed the mark by one moneyball on three other occasions.

Normally, statistics like Dallas limiting teams to 33.1% shooting from 3-point range — which ranks first in the NBA — would be a deterrent, but Curry bends defenses to his will, and not the other way around.

Steph Curry’s celebration after the 3. 🤣🤣

pic.twitter.com/QaEwGCW9Go

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) December 23, 2025

He’s hit at least five triples in two of the last three Christmas Day games he has played, including a sizzling 8-for-15 effort against the Lakers last year.

Curry is also quite comfortable lining it up against the Mavericks drilling five 3-pointers in four of the last seven head-to-head meetings, and missing the Over by a triple in the other.

Game Odds & Betting Information

The Warriors enter as substantial home favorites, as the betting market is taking Dallas’ poor 3-9 road record and it’s 6-11 record against teams with a .500 record and above. Dallas is already without Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively, but PJ Washington (foot), Klay Thompson (knee), Dwight Powell (illness) and Max Christie (illness) are all questionable to suit up on Christmas.

Draymond Green & Steve Kerr exchange words.

(via @shubhydoo)

pic.twitter.com/PEwUkzHNIl

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) December 23, 2025

Golden State has no injury concerns, but the team hasn’t disciplined Draymond Green for walking off the bench and into the locker room after a dispute with Steve Kerr during a timeout in their last game against the Magic. Perhaps this is all water under the bridge, but Green is a wildcard and any erratic play or emotional outbursts could hurt his team’s chances Thursday.

DraftKings Betting Lines:

• Spread: Mavericks +8.5 (-120) / Warriors -8.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Mavericks +270 / Warriors -340
• Total: Over/Under 228.5 (-105/-115)

The -340 moneyline odds for the Warriors indicate a 77.3% implied probability for a win, while the 8.5-point spread suggests oddsmakers expect a comfortable home win — it’s the largest spread for the Warriors since being a 10-point favorite over New Orleans on Nov 29. The total has remained inside the 226.5 to 228.5 point range, as, minus Kyrie Irving, all of the major scoring threats for both teams will be in the lineup for Christmas.

Game Information:

• Date: Thursday, December 25, 2024
• Tip-Off: 5pm ET
• Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, California
• Television: ESPN (National) and ABC (National)