- The Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns have a chance to clinch a Conference Finals berth on Thursday night
- It’s win or go home for the Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks
- Read below for May 12 NBA player props and our best bets
Thursday May 12th brings us two Game 6s in the NBA Playoffs. Phoenix and Miami can book their spots in the Conference Finals if they can win on the road, while Philadelphia and Dallas are facing must-win scenarios in front of their own fans.
The Sixers were blown out in Game 5, but they are 2.5-point favorites as the series returns to Pennsylvania. There’s significantly less faith in the Mavericks even with Game 6 being played in Texas. Luka Doncic and co are two-point dogs.
NBA Player Props – May 12
|MIA @ PHI||Points||Rebounds||Assists||Three Pointers Made|
|Joel Embiid (PHI)||25.5 (O -108 | U -114)||11.5 (O +104 | U -128)||2.5 (O -130 | U +106)||0.5 (O -106 | U -120)|
|James Harden (PHI)||20.5 (O -116 | U -106)||6.5 (O +112 | U -138)||8.5 (O -140 | U +114)||2.5 (O -102 | U -125)|
|Tyrese Maxey (PHI)||18.5 (O -118 | U -102)||2.5 (O -154 | U +126)||3.5 (O -138 | U +112)||2.5 (O +112 | U -142)|
|Bam Adebayo (MIA)||16.5 (O -106 | U -116)||7.5 (O -115 | U -105)||2.5 (O -168 | U +136)||OFF|
|Jimmy Butler (MIA)||25.5 (O -110 | U -110)||7.5 (O +116 | U -142)||5.5 (O -144 | U +118)||1.5 (O +140 | U -180)|
|PHO @ DAL||Points||Rebounds||Assists||Three Pointers Made|
|Devin Booker (PHO)||27.5 (O -110 | U -110)||4.5 (O -134 | U +110)||4.5 (O -122 | U +100)||2.5 (O -162 | U +126)|
|Deandre Ayton (PHO)||17.5 (O -106 | U -116)||10.5 (O -106 | U -114)||OFF||OFF|
|Chris Paul (PHO)||15.5 (O -104 | U -118)||4.5 (O -120 | U -102)||8.5 (O -132 | U +112)||1.5 (O +152 | U -196)|
|Luka Doncic (DAL)||33.5 (O -108 | U -114)||9.5 (O -122 | U +100)||8.5 (O +116 | U -142)||3.5 (O -115 | U -111)|
|Jalen Brunson (DAL)||19.5 (O -116 | U -106)||4.5 (O +116 | U -142)||3.5 (O +138 | U -170)||1.5 (O +128 | U -164)|
Odds as of May 12 at FanDuel Sportsbook
With Dallas needing a win to keep themselves in NBA Championship odds, Luka Doncic owns the highest points line of Thursday night with a mammoth 33.5. Also facing a win-or-go-home scenario, Joel Embiid has the highest rebounds line at 11.5 as he continues to battle through an array of injuries.
Booker’s Points and Threes
Devin Booker has been superb in this series. He’s scored over 27.5 in three of the last four games, and drained three or more threes in each of those. After taking some time to get back up to speed off his hamstring injury, Booker is looking like his usual self.
Even against good Mavericks defense, Booker is rising and draining tough shots. He’s attacking the basket, and taking over six threes per game. The All-Star guard is a release valve for the Suns offense, producing late in the shot clock and going to work when Dallas has been able to restrict some of their usual actions.
Third quarter points:
Devin Booker — 12
Dallas — 14 pic.twitter.com/tPeFarvtmh
— Bally Sports Arizona (@BALLYSPORTSAZ) May 11, 2022
The price on Booker to hit three or more threes is too short. He’s made over 2.5 in six of his playoff appearances this season, though, and hitting outside shots will help him get to this points over. He’s scored 28+ in four of his eight postseason games, and in all four of those, he’s made three or more treys.
Instead of taking the points over on its own, a simple same-game parlay with Booker’s threes over is the best way to go here. It gets us to plus odds at +139, and looks like great value.
- Pick: Devin Booker over 27.5 points and over 2.5 threes (+139)
Maxey’s Shoots it at Home
Tyrese Maxey is shooting 53.6% from three at home in the playoffs. He’s averaging three made threes per contest. In contrast, he’s under 30% from the outside on the road. It is a common cliché to say that role players perform better at home in the postseason, but this has ultimately been true with Maxey and several other Sixers. As such, his two-for-10 and one-for-four from three in Game 5 are not especially relevant heading into Thursday’s contest.
Tyrese Maxey recorded 0 total points in the first half tonight.
He finished with 21 points, 5 threes on 63% shooting from the field. pic.twitter.com/4Jb27GfE2J
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) May 7, 2022
While Maxey’s usage has dipped with Joel Embiid’s return, he’s still got a massive role to play in the Sixers offense. Doc Rivers will give the second-year guard 40+ minutes in this elimination game. There are times when Maxey is left to create for himself late in a possession, and we’ve seen he can hit contested threes.
Philly shot almost 50% from three in its two home games. Their outside shooting has been hot and cold all series, but it’s at Wells Fargo Center where they have found their stroke.
tyrese maxey is built for war and that’s all there is to it
— Shea Serrano (@SheaSerrano) May 7, 2022
We’re backing this trend to continue on Thursday night with Maxey coming up big in a Game 5. Over 2.5 is great value at plus odds.
- Pick: Tyrese Maxey over 2.5 threes (+112)