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Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Odds, Predictions & Picks (June 9)

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Jun 8, 2023 · 3:31 PM PDT

Jamal Murray layup
Jun 7, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) shoots the ball against the Miami Heat during the first half in game three of the 2023 NBA Finals at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Denver Nuggets are 3.5-point road favorites in Game 4 of the NBA Finals vs the Miami Heat
  • Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray both rang up 30-point triple doubles in a 109-94 Game 3 win
  • Don’t miss the latest Heat vs Nuggets Game 4 odds, analysis and our betting prediction

Powered by an historic performance by their dynamic duo, the Denver Nuggets wrestled back home court advantage in the NBA Finals with a Game 3 win in Miami. They lead the series 2-1.

The Heat have now lost three straight at home, and another loss puts them on virtual life support. In Finals history, the list of teams to come back from down 3-1 is the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers. And that’s it.

Game 4 goes Friday (June 9) at 8:30pm ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL. You can watch the game live on ABC.

Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-117) -184 Ov 210.5 (-117)
Miami Heat +3.5 (-117) +133 Un 210.5 (-117)

The NBA betting odds again favor the West representative. Denver is a 3.5-point road favorite and -184 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 64.79%.

Game 4 also features a total of 210.5 points, plummeting a full four points from Game 3, as scoring is coming at a premium. Only once in this series has a team scored more than 110 points.

One other interesting wrinkle: this game will be the first time all series there is just a one-day break in between games, as opposed to the two-day breaks in the previous three.


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Odds as of June 8 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim a Caesars promo code to bet on Nuggets vs Heat Game 4. 

Jokic and Murray Douse Heat

If the Nuggets had lost, we’d be talking about the lack of production from Denver’s supporting cast. Instead, we’re recapping an absolutely devastating evening from Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray as part of a 109-94 win.

Jokic was all-world, going for 32 points, 21 rebounds, 10 assists and a pair of blocks. His triple-double was matched by running mate Jamal Murray, who went for 34 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists.

It’s the first time in NBA history two teammates recorded 30-point triple-doubles in the same game, let alone the NBA Finals. Murray also became the first player to record 10 or more assists in three straight Finals games since Magic Johnson.

Their efforts covered up a smattering of problems, including an abysmal 5-for-18 mark from three-point range, a lowly 27.8% clip. Michael Porter Jr has gone missing in the Finals, playing just 21 minutes and scoring two points on 1-for-7 shooting.

Denver also  committed 14 turnovers that led to 17 Heat points. Save for a Christian Braun 15-point breakout, the rest of the five Nuggets that saw time had 28 points on 29 shots.

Heat Fade in Second Half

Miami traded blows with Denver in the first half, trailing by just five at the break, but they got outscored 29-20 in a decisive third quarter, and they found themselves down double-digits most of the second half.

Much like in Game 1, Miami couldn’t buy a bucket, shooting just 37% from the field and 31.5% from three-point range. It’s the second time in three Finals games the Heat have scored less than 95 points.

Jimmy Butler led the way with 28 points and four assists, but he was an inefficient 11-for-24. Bam Adebayo,  Miami’s most consistent performer, dropped 22 points, 17 boards and three assists, but also shot 7-for-21. The cupboard was pretty barren after those two.

It appears to have struck midnight for Caleb Martin, as he scored 10 points on 4-for-9 shooting in 32 minutes, while Gabe Vincent had just seven points on 2-for-10. His starting backcourt mate Max Strus hit just one of seven shots, finishing with three points.

There was also a major rebounding advantage for Denver, who grabbed 58 boards to Miami’s 33, a wide -25 margin.

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Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Prediction

Denver has been the bet in this matchup at Kaseya: they’re now 5-0 against the spread, and are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games overall.

Recent betting trends don’t bode well for the Heat, either. Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last five following a double-digit home loss.

Still, the Heat are a difficult team to handicap, and an even tougher team to bet against. Even though Denver is the better team, with the two best players in the series, it would be so Miami to square things up and make it a best-of-3.

Because of that, we’ll lean on the total, as the teams have gone under twice in three games, and the under has gone 6-1 in Miami’s last seven games. The under is also 4-1 in Denver’s last five on a day’s rest.

The pick: UNDER 210.5 points (-117)

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