Nuggets vs Thunder Game 7 Picks, Predictions, Player Props & Best Odds

• The Denver Nuggets visit the OKC Thunder in Game 7 on Saturday, May 17
• The Thunder are heavy home favorites to advance to their first Western Conference final since 2016
• See the Nuggets vs Thunder picks, predictions, and player props, plus the best available Game 7 odds

The best-of-seven series between the OKC Thunder (75-17, 35-6 home, 55-33-4 ATS) and Denver Nuggets (57-38, 24-17 away, 47-47-1 ATS) is down to a winner-take-all on Sunday afternoon as the teams meet in Game 7 at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City at 2:40 pm CT/3:40 pm ET.

The already-top-heavy Nuggets could be even thinner than usual. Aaron Gordon (16.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.9 APG postseason) is listed as questionable due to a hamstring injury, while Jamal Murray (22.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.5 APG postseason) and Russell Westbrook (12.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.7 APG postseason) are both probable. Yet Sunday’s NBA odds list OKC as low as an eight-point home favorite, the smallest spread of the series at Paycom.

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Denver Nuggets vs OKC Thunder Game 7 Prediction & Picks

• SGA over 31.5 points (-105) at Caesars
• Nuggets 1st Quarter moneyline (+180) at BetMGM

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The Thunder are 2-1 SU at home in the first quarter against the Nuggets and 4-2 in the first six games of the series, overall. But they didn’t win a single first quarter at home when they lost in six to Dallas last season, and for the Nuggets, the first 12 minutes will be make-or-break. Perhaps not “make” but a bad start could end this game before it truly starts.

Anytime you shorten a game, the variability increases. An inferior team is far more likely to the race to ten than a whole quarter, and a quarter than a half, and a half than a game, and so on. The Nuggets’ first-quarter moneyline of +180 at BetMGM is simply too long. It only gives Denver a 35.71% implied win probability in the first 12 minutes. (It’s as short as +164 at FanDuel, for some perspective.)

Denver has only been outclassed in one game this series (a 149-106 loss in Game 2) and I can’t see Nikola Jokic allowing his team to get run out of the building early on. Expect a back-and-forth affair early on, leading to a toss-up in the first quarter.

I’m not prepared to back the Nuggets over the full 48 minutes, though, and my second pick for Game 7 is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (28.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 6.6 APG postseason) to go over 31.5 points. SGA has scored 31 or more in four of six games this series, which continues a prolific postseason career. In OKC’s six-game loss to Dallas in round two last year, SGA hit 30-plus in five of six, including 36 in the only elimination game of the series.

SGA was surprisingly unaggressive in Game 6, hoisting up just 16 field-goal attempts but still managing a team-high 32 points on 68.8% shooting. The last time we saw Gilgeous-Alexander facing elimination (Game 6 vs Dallas last year), he took 25 field-goal attempts, going 14-of-25 with eight assists and no turnovers. While OKC ultimately lost (117-116), SGA showed up in a big way. I expect more elimination-game heroics from the likely MVP.

DEN vs OKC Player Props for Game 7

NBA player props from bet365 on May 17.

The usual suspects are at the top of the point totals for Game 7. SGA, as mentioned above, has a game-high total of 31.5.

Nikola Jokic (26.7 PPG, 13.0 RPG, 8.1 APG postseason) has been upped from 28.5 points in Game 6 to 30.5 in Game 7. Jokic scored 40-plus in Games 1 and 5 but has been held under 30 in the other four.

Nuggets vs Thunder Odds & Betting Lines

The Nuggets/Thunder point spread for Game 7 varies between OKC -8.0 and -8.5. Almost all books have it at the higher number; DraftKings is the exception, dropping it a point to eight flat.

Logically, DraftKings also has the best moneyline price on an OKC win, listing the Thunder as -298 home favorites. All other sportsbooks have OKC at -320 or shorter. The longest odds on a Denver win are +170 at both FanDuel and Caesars.

There is a full one-point range in the game total. The best under odds are U 214.5 (-105) at Caesars, while the best over odds are O 213.5 (-112) at DraftKings.