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Pacers vs Pistons Odds, Predictions & Player Props for Jan 16

Chris Amberley

By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball

Published:


Cade Cunningham and TJ McConnell.
Nov 29, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham (2) dribbles the ball while Indiana Pacers guard T.J. McConnell (9) defends in the second half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
  • The Detroit Pistons are 3-point favorites over the Indiana Pacers tonight
  • Tyrese Haliburton (groin) is questionable
  • Check out the Pacers vs Pistons odds, predictions and player props, below

The shorthanded Indiana Pacers (22-19, 11-12 away) travel to Detroit tonight to face the Pistons (21-19, 10-9 home). The Pacers will likely be down two starters for the contest, which is reflected in the latest NBA betting lines. Indiana is a short road underdog, after being favored by 5+ points in each of the first two meetings with the Pistons. Tipoff for this Central Division showdown is scheduled for 7pm ET from the Little Caesars Arena, in Detroit, MI.

Pacers vs Pistons Odds

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Indiana Pacers +3 (-110) +124 O 228.5 (-110)
Detroit Pistons -3 (-110) -148 U 228.5 (-110)

The Pistons are currently 3-point favorites, in a contest with a total of 228.5. Both the spread and over/under have moved since opening lines were released, and the line movement may not be done yet. That’s because 86% of the total wagers are on the over, as is 89% of the money.

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Pacers vs Pistons Prediction

  • Over 228.5 (-110) 

It’s not hard to make a case for the over, despite the Pacers key injuries. Bennedict Mathurin won’t play due to a suspension, while Tyrese Haliburton is a legit question mark with a groin injury.

Haliburton sat out Tuesday’s contest versus the Cavs, and is considered day-to-day. He’s the team’s second leading scorer, and by far their best playmaker. Haliburton was All-Star starter last season, and the fact that Detroit is favored by as many points as they are suggests he won’t play.

These two teams are already below average in most defensive metrics, and things get worse when you remove Haliburton and Mathurin. Both are better defensively than their replacements. Haliburton has a higher steal and block percentage than T.J. McConnell, as well as a higher defensive win share.

Jarace Walker is slated to step in for Mathurin, and his defensive win share is a third of his teammate’s.

Detroit meanwhile, enters play winners of seven of their last eight. They’re fresh of a road upset of the Knicks, and have been getting stellar play from Cade Cunningham. The former first overall pick put 36 points at MSG, and is averaging a career-best 24.5 points, 6.6 rebounds and 9.4 assists this season.

The Pacers and Pistons are both in the top half in the league in points per game. They rank fifth and 12th in effective field goal percentage, and both like to run.

Indiana and Detroit average the seventh and fifth most fastbreak points per outing, and each are top-12 in pace.

The trends also support a high-scoring game. The Pacers and Pistons are among the top-nine over teams in the NBA. Detroit has hit the over in three straight home games, while Indiana is 13-6 to the over on the road this season.

Pacers vs Pistons Player Props

  • Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 Points

With Haliburton and Mathurin off the court, no Pacer sees a higher usage bump than McConnell. Unfortunately, online sportsbooks aren’t posting McConnell NBA props until Haliburton’s status is revealed.

Not to worry, the second highest usage bump goes to Pascal Siakam. Siakam leads the team in scoring, and will have to be even more productive without Mathurin and likely Haliburton.

The 30-year-old cleared 21.5 points on Tuesday without Haliburton, and has eclipsed that mark in three of the last four games Haliburton has sat dating back to last year.

Also working in his favor is the matchup. Detroit doesn’t have a lockdown defender, and their highest graded defensive player is out. Jalen Duren, who leads all Pistons starters in defensive rating and block percentage, hasn’t played since early January due to a leg injury.

Chris Amberley
Chris Amberley

Sports Writer

As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

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