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Rockets Are 14-1 to Win NBA Championship; Is There Any Value?

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 27, 2020 · 5:20 PM PDT

Rockets James Harden takes a shot.
James Harden has been the league's toughest check in 2018-19. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License].
  • The Houston Rockets are getting +1400 odds to win the 2019 NBA Championship.
  • Houston is 33-24 and in fifth place in the crowded West.
  • The Rockets have won six of their last 10 games. 

The Houston Rockets have long been viewed as the Golden State Warriors’ biggest hurdle to defending their title. Houston currently has +1400 average odds to win the 2019 NBA Championship, while the Warriors are at -220 across a number of top online sportsbooks. Is there any value betting on the Rockets?

2019 NBA Championship Odds

Team 2019 NBA Championship Odds (02/16/19)
Golden State Warriors -230
Toronto Raptors +750
Boston Celtics +950
Milwaukee Bucks +950
Los Angeles Lakers +1100
Philadelphia 76ers +1100
Houston Rockets +1300
Oklahoma City Thunder +1700
Denver Nuggets +2000
San Antonio Spurs +7000

*Click on the link in the table above to see odds for all 30 NBA teams

Rockets Are a Different Team Compared to Last Year’s Unit

It seems to be a forgotten memory that the Houston Rockets were a half away from going to the NBA Finals last year. They were up 3-1 and had a 17-point lead in Game 6, and were up by 11 at the half of Game 7. Going into this season, they were expected to be the Warriors’ top competition.

The Houston Rockets are just 11-9 in their last 20 games.

The Rockets stumbled out of the gates, going 11-14 in their first 25 contests. Then they went on a nice run where they won 11 of 12. However, they’re back to average as they are just 11-9 in their last 20 games.

If the playoffs were to start today, the Rockets would be the No. 5 seed. Whether they’re good enough to beat the Portland Trail Blazers, Oklahoma City Thunder, or Denver Nuggets in a series without home-court advantage is a question mark. Challenging the Warriors seems like it’s wishful thinking at this point.

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Rockets Are at +1400 to Win NBA Championship

The Rockets entered the season at +430 to win the NBA Championship, but a lot has gone wrong for them. Injuries have been a big factor as Clint Capela and Chris Paul have missed big chunks of the season. At the same time, a lot of the front office moves the team made in the offseason have flopped.

It turns out the team really misses Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute as they were key to the team’s defense last season. Bringing Carmelo Anthony proved to be a disaster while James Ennis, Brandon Knight, and Marquese Chriss were all whiffs.

The Rockets were sixth in points allowed last season – uncharacteristic for a Mike D’Antoni coached team. They are currently 14th at 111.1 this season.

At the same time, their offense has tumbled. The Rockets were no worse than fourth in points per game over the last three seasons; they’re at 11th now. They’ve become extremely unbalanced as James Harden is left to do it all with little support from the cast.

Can they get healthy, gel with new guys like Kenneth Faried and Austin Rivers, and make a run? Yes, it’s possible. But at this point, it seems highly unlikely.

You also have to factor that +1400 means that the Rockets not only have to beat the Warriors, but also beat a quality Eastern Conference foe in the NBA Finals. That’s another layer to this bet you have to keep in mind.

Which Team Offers the Best Value?

If you’re looking for good value, there are a few teams offering plenty of it. The Denver Nuggets are a young team that’s getting better as the season progresses. They are just two games back of the Warriors for the top spot in the West and they just got Isaiah Thomas back in the lineup. At +2000, they’re worth a look.

But keep in mind that teams from the East are now strong enough to challenge. The Milwaukee Bucks are second in points per game and tied for seventh in defense. Coach Mike Budenholzer is a phenomenal coach and a Gregg Popopvich disciple. Maybe he knows how to frustrate the Warriors.

The Milwaukee Bucks are second in points per game and first in defensive rating.

The Bucks have a superstar in Giannis Antetokounmpo, another All-Star in Khris Middleton, plenty of depth and plenty of shooting (second in three-point attempts per game).

And maybe most importantly, they would have home-court advantage in the NBA Finals as of right now. For a team that’s +950, they seem like a much better bet right now than the Rockets.

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