- The San Antonio Spurs finished with a record of 48-34 last season.
- The Spurs regular season win total for the 2019-20 season is at 45.5.
- The Houston Rockets are clearly the team to beat in the Southwest but the over on the Spurs regular season win total is a good bet.
The San Antonio Spurs odds to win the Southwest Division have shortened from +700 to +400 since the line opened. Is it a reflection of the Spurs chances, some bettors being bullish on the Spurs or just the lines shifting around? Let’s take a closer look and see if there’s value betting on San Antonio winning this division.
2019-20 Southwest Division Odds
|Team||2018-19 Record||Odds To Win Southwest Division at BetOnline|
|San Antonio Spurs||48-34||+400|
|New Orleans Pelicans||33-49||+1000|
*Odds as of 12/08/2019.
Spurs Move Up, Others Move Down
The first thing to note with this change in the betting line is that it looks like the Spurs moving up has coincided with a few other teams moving down. Taking a look at our NBA division odds tracker, you can see that the Dallas Mavericks have dropped from an average of +450 to +930 and the Memphis Grizzlies have dropped from an average of +5000 to +12500 as well.
As for the Houston Rockets, who are favored, their odds have shifted down from an average of -230 to -260. It does seem like there are a few bettors that have been bullish on the Spurs, which is why the lines have moved.
Could Injuries Factor?
With no recent roster or injury news, it seems a tad odd that the Spurs would move up and everybody else move down. Remember, they finished with 48 wins last season, which put them just five games out of first place. It’s possible that bettors feel the Spurs are offering a decent payday in the case one of the Rockets stars gets hurt.
When you handicap the lines, obviously it’s hard to bank on injuries happening, but the Spurs are the clear-cut second-best team in this division. With that being the case, they’d be first in line to win it if the Rockets stumble or suffer major injuries to Russell Westbrook or James Harden. At +700, it might have been too juicy a price to pass up.
What’s The Best Bet?
The Spurs were the seventh seed in the West last year and had a lot of things go against them. That includes point guard Dejounte Murray who was out all of last season with a torn ACL. Fellow young guards Derrick White and Lonnie Walker IV also enter the season healthy and provide a lot of upside to Gregg Popovich’s group.
At the same time, while this team has young pieces and two veteran cornerstones in LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan, they still are not on the same tier as the West’s elite. If you’re betting them here, it’s because you’re taking a flier on something going wrong with the Rockets.
I prefer betting the Spurs over 45.5 on the regular season win total as they won 48 games last year and should be better. Outside of that, I’m not interested in betting the Spurs to win this division. The Rockets won 53 games last year and upgraded from Chris Paul to Russell Westbrook. They’re a clear cut above the Spurs.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.