Spurs have Better Odds than Pelicans to Win Southwest Division
- The Rockets are heavily favored to win the Southwest Division with -450 odds, but the Spurs aren’t as far behind as you might think
- San Antonio has better odds than New Orleans despite losing several key players
- Will DeMar DeRozan flourish in the Alamo City?
The Spurs are like the NBA’s version of Freddy Krueger: No matter how many times you think you’ve killed them, they just keep on coming back. Sportsbooks have seen it happen often enough that they’ve given San Antonio surprisingly robust +700 odds of winning the Southwest Division.
2018-19 Southwest Division Champion Odds
| Team | 2017-18 Record | Odds to Win the Southwest Division |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 65-17 | -450 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 47-35 | +700 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 48-34 | +800 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 24-58 | +5000 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 22-60 | +5000 |
Those odds still lag behind those of the heavily favored Rockets, but they’re noteworthy because of the many challenges and personnel changes the Spurs have endured over the past three months.
To wit, San Antonio traded Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green to Toronto, let six-time All-Star Tony Parker walk in free agency, lost influential assistant coach James Borrego, and bid a teary adieu to future Hall of Famer Manu Ginobili following his retirement.
Patty Mills and recently re-signed swingman Marco Belinelli are now the only players who remain from their 2014 championship squad.
Few teams could endure that kind of turnover, but the Spurs remain in the thick of things in one of the NBA’s most competitive divisions. Much of the credit goes to head coach Gregg Popovich and general manager RC Buford, who are among the most unflappable figures in the league. They approach every crisis as an opportunity in disguise, and have the wisdom, patience, and experience to survive any kind of tumult.
Gregg Popovich and general manager RC Buford approach every crisis as an opportunity in disguise, and have the wisdom, patience, and experience to survive any kind of tumult.
San Antonio also still has a few guys who can ball. LaMarcus Aldridge increased his scoring average by 5.8 points in 2017-18 and reasserted himself as one of the league’s best mid-range options. Dejounte Murray earned All-Defensive Second Team honors during his first year as a starter thanks to his relentless ball-hounding. And Rudy Gay bounced back from a torn Achilles tendon to average 11.5 points and 5.1 boards off the bench. The former UConn star looked especially sharp in April, as he poured in 15 points a game and went off for 21 against the Rockets.
San Antonio Spurs Depth Chart
| Point Guard | Shooting Guard | Small Forward | Power Forward | Center |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | DeMar DeRozan | Rudy Gay | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol |
| Patty Mills | Bryn Forbes | Marco Belinelli | Dante Cunningham | Jakob Poeltl |
| Derrick White | Lonnie Walker IV | Quincy Pondexter | Davis Bertans |
They should receive plenty of support this season from DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl, whom the Spurs acquired from the Raptors on July 18th.
The 29-year-old DeRozan is smack dab in the middle of his prime, and has done a commendable job of improving his weaknesses in each of his nine seasons in the league. Last year he connected on 1.1 treys per game while also dishing out 5.2 assists. Both numbers are career highs, and suggest that DeRozan’s best seasons may still be ahead of him.
Will DeMar DeRozan thrive in San Antonio? #SITop100 https://t.co/V08Xx0rUkt pic.twitter.com/ggiU2ynYTx
— The Crossover (@TheCrossover) September 12, 2018
Poeltl, meanwhile, was one of the best backup bigs in the league last year. The Utah product hit 65% of his shots and averaged 1.2 blocks in under 20 minutes per game. He should see major minutes this season in the Alamo City given Pau Gasol’s age and limited mobility.
One thing’s for certain: Both players will need to exceed expectations for the Spurs to have any shot at winning the Southwest Division for the fourth time in six years.
Past Southwest Division Champions
| Year | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Houston Rockets | 65-17 |
| 2016-17 | San Antonio Spurs | 61-21 |
| 2015-16 | San Antonio Spurs | 67-15 |
| 2014-15 | Houston Rockets | 56-26 |
| 2013-14 | San Antonio Spurs | 62-20 |
Is There Value in Betting on the Spurs?
Anyone who counts out the Spurs does so at their own peril. San Antonio has averaged 56.5 wins per season over the last ten years and hasn’t missed the playoffs since 1997. They’re going to be very good again in 2018-19 and will flumox opposing teams with their ability to execute plays with machine-like precision.
However, they’re simply not going to be as good as the Rockets.
Southwest Division 2019 NBA Championship Odds
Houston won a league-high 65 games last season and remains one of the four best teams in the league according to the average odds from a number of top online sportsbooks. They have the NBA’s reigning MVP in James Harden, a first ballot Hall of Fame point guard in Chris Paul, and one of the game’s most disruptive centers in Clint Capela.
The sentimental money will be on San Antonio, but the smart money will be on Houston.
Ryan worked as an Editor and resident Lead NBA and MLB Writer for SB from 2017-19. He has authored his own weekly columns for Fox Sports and AskMen, and has created successful campaigns for the WWE, the NHL, and the NFL. Ryan's critically acclaimed stories have been published in 20 books.
