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Spurs, Warriors & Knicks See Updated Win Totals Drop; Should You Bet Them to Go Over or Under New Total?

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in NBA Basketball

Nov 29, 2019 · 10:17 AM PST

DeMar DeRozan
San Antonio Spurs forward DeMar DeRozan drives up the court during a game against the Los Angeles Clippers. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
  • The San Antonio Spurs win total has fallen by 20 wins after an awful start
  • Injuries have seen the Warriors slip into a rebuilding year
  • Despite low expectations, Knicks have still underachieved under Fizdale

It hasn’t taken long to see major changes for some teams’ NBA win totals. The San Antonio Spurs, New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors have all seen their win totals slump dramatically since the season began.

Sportsbooks have moved the line from 48.5 to 28.5 for the Warriors; it’s dropped to 17.5 from 27.5 for the Knicks; the Spurs are at a lowly 25.5 having been 45.5 ahead of the season tipping off.

Each of these teams have underperformed hugely. Sportsbooks’ updated odds are in the table below – this article will take a look at each team and evaluate whether the over or under is the best option for their new win totals.

Updated NBA Win Totals

Team Odds
Golden State Warriors 28.5 (-115o/-115u)
San Antonio Spurs 25.5 (-115o/-115u)
New York Knicks 17.5 (-115o/-115u)

Odds taken Nov. 29

Spurs Star Issues

DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are meant to be the Spurs’ two best players. San Antonio are outscored by 8.3 points per 100 possessions with the duo on the floor. Both players have been a liability defensively so far this season, with defensive ratings of 118.2 and 117.8 respectively. That has been a major contributing factor in San Antonio owning the 29th defensive rating in the NBA.

Dejounte Murray’s struggles on his return from injury have been a disappointment, but they’re also one of the few areas of obvious upside for Gregg Popovich’s team. Murray has star potential, and improvement throughout the year is probable after such a long lay-off. He will help their defense significantly once he gets up to speed.

The schedule hasn’t been particularly kind to the Spurs, but that’s life in the Western Conference. San Antonio’s 6-13 cannot be put down to schedule alone, considering they have lost to the Hawks, Wizards, Blazers, Magic and Timberwolves (twice) this season already.

They face the Pistons (twice), Kings, Cavaliers, Nets, Grizzlies and Warriors in December. The way they have been playing, though, it’s easy to see several losses coming in those games. The Spurs have given up over 100 points in every game so far this season and opponents are hitting 38.8% of their threes against them.

The offense has been good, however, ranking ninth in the NBA. That, paired with an all-time great coach and Murray finding some rhythm, just about makes the over the best bet.

Pick: Over 25.5 (-115)

Knicks In Turmoil

The New York Knicks haven’t just been bad this season; they’ve been in turmoil. An impromptu press conference from the front office last week suggests David Fizdale is only a loss or two away from the sack. The talk of being competitive after striking out in free agency always seemed overambitious, and it’s proven to be just that.

The Knicks rank 29th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating. After losing to the Cavaliers, Hornets, Spurs, Nets, Bulls and Pistons in November, New York are hitting a rough part of the schedule. Wednesday’s loss to the Raptors was just the start – Fizdale’s team face the Sixers on Friday, followed by the Bucks, Nuggets, and Pacers.

While a coaching change in the coming weeks is likely, it’s improbable that will see a drastic change in the Knicks’ fortunes. This roster, with far too many power forwards, has a low offensive ceiling and major spacing issues – they rank 25th in three-point attempts per game.

RJ Barrett has been a bright spark for the Knicks thus far, but the third overall pick may see his performance level drop off later in the year, as is the case for many rookies as they get used to the grind of the NBA season.

The Knicks have talked the talk about being competitive. In reality, they may be looking to enhance their lottery odds before long, making the under a good bet.

Pick: Under 17.5 (-115)

Warriors Have Decisions to Make

The Warriors’ chances of hitting the over depend a lot on the direction the team choose to go. Ownership has claimed they won’t tank, but their roster situation suggests that is the best option.

Although Steph Curry will be healthy long before the season ends, the Warriors could choose to effectively give the two-time MVP the year off. Whether they want to do that in their first season at Chase Center is a different question.

Klay Thompson is not expected to play until 2020-21. D’Angelo Russell is currently sidelined and Kevon Looney’s health remains a concern. Draymond Green has only played 11 of their 19 games to date and will likely be protected over the remainder of the season. Sitting with the worst record in the NBA, the Warriors’ current win total of 28.5 looks a long way off.

Even a short period of Russell, Green, Curry and Looney taking the floor together could well get Golden State close to the 30-win mark. That quartet, joined by impressive rookie Eric Paschall, will be competitive at the very least.

There have been encouraging signs from the remaining Warriors over the last few weeks, but they aren’t converting those into wins. Moving to Chase Center might give a slight incentive to play Curry once he’s healthy, but they will be keen to get him some rest after five consecutive Finals appearances.

Steve Kerr and Bob Myers have accepted this as a development year for the Warriors, and in the brutal Western Conference, it’s hard to see them going 25-38 the rest of the way.

Pick: Under (-115)

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