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Suns vs Bucks Picks and Odds

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 19, 2021 · 6:20 AM PDT

Jrue Holiday
Jrue Holiday will play against Phoenix for the first time this season (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
  • The Suns and Bucks matchup on Monday, April 19th in Milwaukee
  • Phoenix is only one game back in the loss column of the top seed in the Western Conference
  • Read below for the latest betting analysis, odds and a pick on the game

The Suns are three-point underdogs for their Monday meeting with the Milwaukee Bucks. After a few games missing key players, the Bucks are practically back at full health with Giannis Antetokounmpo not on the injury report for Monday’s game.

Abdel Nader is the only Sun featuring on the injury report – he is out (knee). Donte DiVincenzo sat out Milwaukee’s game on Saturday with a toe issue, but he’s day-to-day ahead of this one. Bryn Forbes stepped into the starting five in DiVincenzo’s absence.

Milwaukee won a thriller between these two teams when they last met on February 10th. There was no Jrue Holiday on that occasion, though, and his availability is clearly a key factor on Monday.

Suns vs Bucks Odds

Team Spread at FanDuel Moneyline Total
Phoenix Suns +3 (-114) +134 Over 234.5 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks -3 (-106) -158 Under 234.5 (-110)

Odds as of Apr 19th

Jrue Factor

Holiday has been awesome this season. He’s at a career-best 40.6% from three, and his 2.1 turnovers per game is the lowest mark since his Philly days. Holiday’s reputation as an All-Star caliber player has been built on defense, though, and this is where he has shown what a difference maker he can be over and over.

YouTube video

He locked up Trae Young. Only six players average more deflections per game. Holiday will likely spend time on both Chris Paul and Devin Booker on Monday. Backcourt assignments don’t get much tougher in the NBA, but as a result, this is a game where Holiday’s defensive impact can be felt.

Phoenix’s offense relies on the playmaking of Paul and scoring of Booker. Make life difficult for one or both of them, and a lot is being asked of Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder and Deandre Ayton.

Holiday has also become a bigger threat in the clutch for Milwaukee. He’s taking 3.2 fourth quarter field goal attempts per fourth quarter since the All-Star break, an increase from 2.6 earlier in the season. His ability to create his own shot late in the game could be crucial in this one, particularly with the Suns doing all they can to prevent another massive night from Antetokounmpo (who scored 47 when these teams last met).

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Slipping Suns

Phoenix ranks top 10 at both ends for the season, but their numbers have dropped off lately. They were blown out by the Spurs on the weekend. Their defense is down to 14th per Cleaning The Glass over the last two weeks.

This is a pivotal point in their season. Facing Milwaukee starts a difficult run of games for Monty Williams’ team. If they are to push Utah for the top seed, they need to get back to the top-tier defensive performances which served as the foundation for their success throughout the campaign.

Sitting at 40-16, the success of the Suns this season has gone under the radar. Perhaps even more impressively, they are 19-7 against teams over .500. That’s the best mark in the Association, and the Bucks sit at 13-16 in such matchups.

Phoenix’s loss to San Antonio was probably their worst performance of the season. They scored just 85 points, and the Spurs were without Patty Mills, Jakob Poeltl and DeMar DeRozan. It’ll be interesting to see how they bounce back on Monday, facing a Bucks team also coming off a disappointing loss.

Phoenix to Cover

The Suns haven’t lost consecutive games since the end of January. Only the Grizzlies and Knicks have a better percentage ATS, and they boast an impressive 7-3 ATS record as underdogs this season.

Stopping Antetokounmpo is a problem, as was exhibited in their previous meeting, but the effectiveness of their team defense has overcome troubling matchups in the past.

Paul will be urging an improved performance after Saturday’s loss. This should be a great game for the neutral, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if it’s a one-possession game again.

  • Pick: Phoenix Suns +3 (-114)

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