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Suns vs Nuggets Game 1 Predictions, Props & Same-Game Parlay

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 28, 2023 · 9:58 PM PDT

Nikola Jokic and Devin Booker face to face
Jun 13, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) and Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) push each other in the third quarter during game four in the second round of the 2021 NBA Playoffs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Suns are 2.5-point road underdogs when they kick off their Round 2 matchup in Denver
  • Both the Nuggets and Suns won their First Round series in five games
  • Don’t miss the latest Suns vs Nuggets Game 1 odds here, plus betting splits and Same-Game Parlay picks

Without a doubt, the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets are two of the best teams still standing in the Association. And yet, both still have plenty to prove.

They meet in the 2nd Round of the West’s NBA Playoff Bracket, with a berth to the Conference Finals on the line, and a step closer for both teams chasing their elusive first title in franchise history.

The top-seeded Nuggets made quick work of the Timberwolves in Round 1, bouncing them in five games. Phoenix did the exact same thing to Clippers, clinching on the same day.

Game 1 goes Saturday (April 29) at 8:30pm ET from Ball Arena in Denver, CO. You can watch the game live on TNT.

Suns vs Nuggets Game 1 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Phoenix Suns +2.5 (-105) +120 O 226 (-110)
Denver Nuggets -2.5 (-115) -140 U 226 (-110)

The NBA odds have the 4th-seeded Suns as 2.5-point road ‘dogs, and +120 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 45.45%, while the total is set at 226 points.

Although Denver is the favorite in Game 1, Phoenix is the betting favorite to advance, with a series price of -130 at DraftKings.


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Odds as of April 28 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Stars Dot Ball Arena Floor For Game 1

There is so much all-NBA talent that will suit up in Round 2 at Denver. For the home team, they revolve around reigning 2-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic.

Unfazed by a super-sized Minnesota frontcourt, Jokic simply put in work in Round 1, averaging 26.2 points, 12.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists on 48.5% shooting from the field and 50% from distance.

It appears he could have a necessary costar in this showdown, as Jamal Murray’s return from a knee injury appears to be complete. He led the team in scoring against the T-Wolves, averaging 27.2 points, with 5.6 rebounds and 6.4 assists.

The Nuggets allowed just 105.4 points per game in Round 1, but Phoenix is a different beast, featuring two of the most lethal scorers in basketball.

Suns vs Nuggets Head-to-Head Playoff Stats

Phoenix Suns
Denver Nuggets
122.0 (2nd) Points per Game 114.2 (9th)
115.6 (10th) Points Against per Game 105.4 (5th)
42.8 (11th) Rebounds Per Game 44.8 (8th)
51.5% (2nd) Field Goal Shooting 48.1% (4th)
46.0% (11th) Field Goal Shooting Defense 45.8% (9th)
40.7% (2nd) 3-Point Shooting 38.9% (5th)
36.1% (9th) 3-Point Shooting Defense 34.8% (8th)

Trade deadline pickup Kevin Durant coasted against LA, putting up 28.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 6.2 assists on a blistering 51.8% shooting from the field and a 45.8% clip from beyond the arc.

That’s because Devin Booker was supernova across five games. The all-star averaged 37.2 points, five boards and 6.4 assists on an unreal 60.2% from the field and 46.7% from downtown.

Phoenix has lost just once in 13 games with Durant in the lineup.

Phoenix vs Denver Same-Game Parlay

Add some betting intrigue to Saturday’s showdown with this Same-Game Parlay that pays out at +1100 odds. Let’s start with the expected scoring outburst: Phoenix has gone over in six of their last eight, while Denver’s gone over in four of five.

Suns vs Nuggets Game 1 Same-Game Parlay

Pick Odds
OVER 226.5 points +100
Devin Booker OVER 30.5 points +100
Michael Porter Jr UNDER 16.5 points -115
Deandre Ayton UNDER 9.5 rebounds -110
Same-Game Parlay Odds +1100

Booker cracked 30+ points in four out of five games in Round 1, and I’ll happily take plus odds on him staying hot. On the other end of the spectrum is Michael Porter Jr. In seven career games, he has yet to crack 17 points in a game against the Suns.

Finally, I’m a little suspect of Deandre Ayton, who went for 11+ rebounds in four of five games, but those LA lineups were ultra small. He’s only gone for double-digit boards twice in his last six against the Nuggets.

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Suns vs Nuggets Prediction

There’s not a lot to gather from the regular season here. The teams split their 4-game regular-season series, with Denver winning two games pre-KD, while the Suns’ late-season W’s happened while Jokic was nursing a calf injury.

The Nuggets are 23-18-1 against the spread as home favourites, while the Suns are just 9-12-1 ATS as a road ‘dog. The Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last five in Denver.

Both teams like to get up and down: Phoenix is second in fast-break points (17.0), while Denver is just a few ticks behind in third (16.4).

Denver may have an advantage inside: they’re fourth in paint scoring these playoffs, putting up 51.6 per game. Phoenix is 11th in paint points allowed (50.0).

We’ll see just how the Nuggets defense can hold up against a Suns’ unit putting up 122 points a game, shooting 51.5% from the field and 40.7% from distance — both 2nd-best marks in the postseason.

This one looks like a track meet with some elite shot makers, and we’ll bet it that way.


  • OVER 226 points (-110); 1.5 units to win 1.36 units
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