By Matt McEwan in NBA Basketball
Published:
The NBA Finals have not gone as sportsbooks expected so far, as the Thunder, who have been heavy favorites in all three games, find themselves down 2-1 to the Pacers. With the series remaining in Indianapolis for Game 4, the stakes are extremely high, as the Pacers look to take a commanding 3-1 lead and push the Thunder to the brink of elimination.
For the Thunder, this is a virtual must-win. Falling into a 3-1 hole would be a monumental challenge to overcome. The 2025 NBA MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, will need to bounce back from a mediocre performance (for him) last game, but he’ll need his supporting cast to step up against a confident Pacers squad, particularly Chet Holmgren, who went 0-6 from three in Game 3. The battle between Indiana’s high-octane offense, led by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, and Oklahoma City’s top-tier defense will once again take center stage in what promises to be a tense and physical contest.
Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Friday, June 13, with the broadcast live on ABC.
While the Thunder are favored for a reason, there are many trends that heavily favor the home team. The Pacers have been a juggernaut at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, particularly when getting points. They have gone 5-1 against the spread (83.3%) in their last six games as a home underdog and are an impressive 12-3 straight up (80%) in their last 15 home games. Conversely, one troubling trend for Indiana is their performance following a victory, where they are just 1-3 against the spread (25%) in their last four instances.
I feel confident Indiana is about to get OKC’s best shot, but after they have won two of three games, I’m not sure the Thunder can really break this game open and cover a 6-point spread on the road. For that reason, I’m looking to the player prop markets.
Pascal Siakam’s scoring will be paramount to Indiana keeping this game competitive. He’s the team’s most reliable half-court creator, with his length and quickness forcing the Thunder into putting him on the free throw line pretty consistently this series, and I believe will be leaned on heavily to counter the Thunder’s tenacious defense. His points prop of 19.5 is right in line with his regular season and playoff averages. Siakam averaged 20.2 PPG in the regular season and is averaging 20.6 PPG in the 19 playoff games he has played this postseason. Here’s a quick look at his stats in the three games this series:
While Siakam has only gone over this total once this series, I expect the Thunder to try to force the ball out of Tyrese Haliburton’s hands and not give him any room behind the three-point line. I like the result to be more drive-and-kick opportunities, with Siakam being the beneficiary on many occasions.
The second pick I like for Game 4 is Bennedict Mathurin to go over 11.5 points. This is an alternate line at FanDuel, which can be found in the “Mathurin alternate points” market. It seems every time this kid finds his way on the floor, he puts the ball in the basket. He is coming off a 27-point performance on Wednesday night, which followed a 14-point effort in Game 2. Rick Carlisle is going to have a hard time keeping Mathurin off the floor, especially since he’s been so efficient in scoring – he’s 13-19 from the field over the last two games.
Mathurin has scored at least 12 points in four of his last six games, and in six of eight games this postseason where he has played at least 20 minutes. I do expect we’ll see the Thunder come out swinging tonight, which I think only betters Mathurin’s chances of seeing some floor time early.
Top Picks:
Despite dropping two of the first three games, the Thunder are still 6-point road favorites. Sportsbooks are obviously anticipating a significant bounce-back effort from the Thunder, whose season-long performance metrics are stronger than their current series predicament indicates. The Pacers, priced at +194 on the moneyline, offer a tempting payout for bettors who believe in their home-court dominance and late-game heroics. The game total is set at a lofty 226.5 points, a nod to the offensive firepower on both sides and the pace of the first three games, which saw totals of 221, 230, and 223.
Check out our matchup page for the latest Pacers vs Thunder odds and shop for the best lines.
The injury report remains unchanged, with both teams missing depth pieces but having their core rotations intact. Essentially, there’s nothing really to see here.
NBA player props as of June 13 from FanDuel.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s points prop is set at a lofty 33.5, a testament to his MVP-worthy scoring prowess. For the Pacers, Pascal Siakam’s line of 19.5 points looks appealing, as mentioned earlier; he averages 20.6 PPG on the season and serves as one of Indiana’s go-to option in crucial moments. Tyrese Haliburton’s assist line is 8.5, a number he can certainly eclipse if the Pacers’ offense is firing on all cylinders, though the Thunder’s perimeter defense will present a stiff challenge.
This series has been a compelling chess match. The Indiana Pacers stunned the Thunder in Game 1 with a razor-thin 111-110 victory on the road, thanks to a huge fourth quarter comeback. Oklahoma City responded with authority in Game 2, leveraging their defense to cruise to a 123-107 win and even the series. Returning home for Game 3, the Pacers rode the energy of their crowd to a 116-107 triumph, showcasing their offensive depth and resilience. The common thread has been offense, with every game sailing past the 220-point mark, but Game 3 showed Indiana’s ability to get key defensive stops when needed to protect their lead.
The betting public is firmly in the corner of the home underdog:
This creates a classic “public vs. the house” scenario, with the majority of bettors fading the heavily favored Thunder. The most lopsided market is the total, where a staggering 94% of bets are on the Over 226.5. Keep up with the NBA public betting splits as betting activity heightens leading up to tip-off.
The sports and sports betting data in this article was gathered with the assistance of AI that is connected to Sportradar’s database.
Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.
Updated: 11 hours ago
