Timberwolves vs Nuggets Predictions, Picks & Props to Target on March 12
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Denver Nuggets are 4-point favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight
- The Timberwolves have won five straight since Julius Randle’s return from injury
- See the Timberwolves vs Nuggets predictions, picks and props to target, below
A rematch of last year’s Western Conference semifinal is on tap tonight as the Minnesota Timberwolves (37-29, 19-15 away) visit the Denver Nuggets (47-23, 22-9 home). Online sportsbooks are expecting a close contest in the latest NBA odds, siding with Denver as home chalk. Tip-off is scheduled for 7pm PT / 10pm ET at Ball Arena, in Denver, CO, with ESPN providing the coverage.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Odds
The Nuggets are currently favored by 4-points, in a contest with a total of 235. Per the NBA public betting trends, the spread has moved half a point in Denver’s favor since opening odds were released, while the over/under is up half a point as well. The Nuggets are listed at -170 on the moneyline, with Minnesota coming back as +142 underdogs.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction
My analysis for this contest starts with the red-hot Timberwolves. Minnesota enters play winners of five straight, which coincides directly with the return of Julius Randle. The 30-year-old missed over a month with a groin injury, but has been awesome in his return.
He’s averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists in five games back, shooting 46% along the way. The T-Wolves won the last five games Randle played before getting hurt, and four of their five wins on this latest streak have come by 14+ points.
Also working in Minny’s favor is the return of Rudy Gobert. The staple in the defensive playoff of the year odds, is scheduled to make his second start in a row after missing nearly a month. He was excellent on Sunday, putting up 16 points and 8 boards in only 20 minutes.
Gobert’s presence is paramount given how well Nikola Jokic is playing. The perennial NBA MVP odds contender is on an absolute heater. He’s averaging 26/16/11 over his last seven games, and pulled off a truly historic feat last Friday.
Jokic racked up a triple-double early in the third quarter of a win over Phoenix. By the time the game ended, he had put up another 10+ points, rebounds, and assists. It was the first 30/20/20 game in NBA history, and his 29th triple-double this season.
No one is capable of shutting down Jokic, but Gobert is maybe the best option in the NBA to keep him in check. For his career, Jokic averages 21 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists in games versus Gobert. Impressive numbers yes, but a step down from his regular production.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Pick
- Timberwolves vs Nuggets Pick: Timberwolves +4 (-108)
At the other end of the floor, Gobert has had a good deal of success versus Jokic. Gobert averages 14 points and 11 boards lifetime in matchups with Jokic. That’s a step up in production from his season long and career numbers.
That’s not the lone reason why I’m betting the T-Wolves plus the points, but it plays into the decision. I have zero interest in fading Minnesota now that Randle and Gobert are back. They’re number one in Net Rating over the last five games, second in offensive rating, and top-10 defensively.
The T-Wolves are 9-5 against the spread as road dogs, and 2-0 straight up versus Denver this season. The Nuggets are also down a top-five scorer and rebounder in Aaron Gordon, and have a worse net and defensive rating without him.
MIN vs DEN Player Props
NBA props from DraftKings Sportsbook on March 10.
- MIN vs DEN Player Prop pick: Rudy Gobert Over 21.5 Pts+Reb (-105)
Back to Gobert, who I’m targeting in the props market. My best bet is over 21.5 points and rebounds. It’s a number well below his career average in matchups versus Gobert, and one he easily cleared in his first game back. In two games against Jokic this season, he’s put up 14+ points in both outings, along with 14+ rebounds.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
