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Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings: NBA Friday Betting Picks

Klay Thompson drives against the Washington Wizards.
Klay Thompson has been a driving force behind Golden State’s high-octane offense. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License].
  • The Kings have won three of four entering tonight’s clash with the Warriors at the Golden 1 Center (7:30 PM PT).
  • Can the Warriors bounce back from their biggest loss of the season?
  • Will Kings rookie De’Aaron Fox continue his recent hot streak?
  • The odds for the moneyline, spread, and game total vary slightly from sportsbook to sportsbook. Which ones offer the best value?

Golden State and Sacramento find themselves in very unfamiliar positions heading into tonight’s game at the Golden 1 Center. The Warriors (40-11, 21-5 away) are reeling from a 30-point loss to the Jazz in which they shot just 20-percent from behind the arc and appeared listless for long stretches of the game. Head coach Steve Kerr blamed the lopsided defeat on a lack of heart and criticized his players afterwards for thinking they could coast by on talent alone.

The Kings (16-34, 7-14 home), meanwhile, have won three of their last four games and are finally showing signs of life. The key to their resurgence has been the inspired play of De’Aaron Fox, who averaged 14.1 points, 5.2 assists, and 1.1 steals in January and has rendered veteran point guard George Hill obsolete. Sacramento has also received a welcome boost from fellow rookie Bogdan Bogdanovic, who is shooting 39-percent from deep and had a pair of 20-point games in January. Sacramento will need big games from both of its young studs if it hopes to hand the Warriors their second straight loss.

Ryan Murphy 2017-18 Season Stats

  • ATS record: 59-37 (61.4-percent)
  • SU record: 242-110 (68.7-percent)
  • O/U record: 40-36 (52.6-percent) 

Team Stats Comparison

OFFENSE

warriors
VS
kings

113.4  Offense Rating  100.5
115.6 Points 98.2
44.0 Rebounds 40.3
 30.5  Assists  20.9
 50.8  Field-Goal Percentage  45.1
 39.2  Three-Point Percentage  38.5
102.4  Pace 97.1
8.0  Plus/Minus -8.3

DEFENSE

warriors
VS
kings

 103.8  Defense Rating 109.7
107.7  Points 106.5
 42.2 Rebounds  43.7
 8.8 Steals  8.1
3.6 Blocks 4.7
44.2  Field-Goal Percentage 47.6
 36.3  Three-Point Percentage  38.3
47.2  Points In Point  42.9

Head-to-Head Results

Sacramento beat Golden State 110-106 during their first meeting of the season on November 27th. Yes, you read that correctly, the Kings actually beat the Warriors. However, the game should come with a Zach Randolph-sized asterisk as Steph Curry and Kevin Durant both sat out with injuries and Kerr gave significant minutes to nine of his reserves.

Willie Cauley-Stein had 19 points and eight rebounds, and five other Kings scored in double figures as Sacramento won in Golden State for the first time in nine games.

Recent Results

WARRIORS: Golden State suffered its biggest loss of the season on Tuesday night, losing 129-99 to Utah. Klay Thompson led the way with 27 points in 31 minutes, but was one of the team’s few bright spots as the Warriors turned the ball over 20 times. Kerr chided his squad for their “pathetic effort” afterwards, blaming the loss on a lack of desire. “Our hearts weren’t in it,” he said. “At this level, if your heart’s not in it, I don’t care how much talent you have. You’re going to lose. … It happens. It’s the NBA. It’s a long season.”

KINGS: Sacramento picked up a rare road win on Tuesday night by defeating New Orleans 114-103. Randolph paced the Kings with 26 points and 12 rebounds, and Kosta Koufos chipped in 17 points and a career-high 17 boards. Sacramento shot 50-percent from the floor and took advantage of DeMarcus Cousins’ absence by out-rebounding NOLA 55-42 and scoring 52 points in the paint.

Notable Injuries and Absences

WARRIORS: Jordan Bell

Bell injured his ankle against the Bulls on Wednesday, January 17th, and is considered questionable against the Kings.

KINGS: Frank Mason III, Malachi Richardson, Skal Labissiere, Willie Cauley-Stein, Harry Giles

Mason is recovering from a partial tear of his right plantar fascia and is expected to miss another week. Richardson is nursing a sprained left ankle and is considered questionable. Labissiere has missed the past two games with a left shoulder strain and is also questionable, as is Cauley-Stein, who has a deep bone bruise in his right knee. Giles is still recovering from ACL surgery and has been ruled out for the remainder of the season.

Betting the Moneyline

BEST WARRIORS MONEYLINE: -1000 

The Warriors are -1000 in one sportsbook

 

BEST KINGS MONEYLINE: +767

You can get the Kings at +767.

WARRIORS STRAIGHT-UP TRENDS

  • Golden State is 21-5 SU on the road
  • Golden State is 7-3 SU in its last ten games
  • Golden State is 40-11 SU as a favorite
  • Golden State is 21-8 SU in conference games
  • Golden State is 10-0 SU after a loss
  • Golden State is 8-4 SU after 2-3 days off

KINGS STRAIGHT-UP TRENDS

  • Sacramento is 7-14 SU at home
  • Sacramento is 3-7 SU in its last ten games
  • Sacramento is 13-30 SU as an underdog
  • Sacramento is 9-20 SU in conference games
  • Sacramento is 3-12 SU after a win
  • Sacramento is 3-10 SU after one day off

 EXPERT MONEYLINE ADVICE: WARRIORS -1000

Sacramento and Golden State are at completely opposite ends of the NBA spectrum. The Warriors rank first in offensive rating, net rating, points per game, plus/minus, true shooting percentage, and player impact estimate, while the Kings rank dead-last in all six categories. We could go on and on, but it would only belabor the point that these two teams are going in very different directions. Golden State is on the fast track to its fourth-consecutive Finals appearance, while Sacramento will be back in the draft lottery for the 11th straight year. Tonight’s game should come with a viewer discretion warning because things are about to get very, very ugly.

Betting Against the Spread

BEST WARRIORS SPREAD: -12.5 (-110)

BEST KINGS SPREAD: +12.5 (-110)

WARRIORS AGAINST-THE-SPREAD TRENDS 

  • Golden State is 21-29-1 ATS this season (42-percent)
  • Golden State is 12-14 ATS on the road
  • Golden State is riding a two-game ATS losing streak

KINGS AGAINST-THE-SPREAD TRENDS 

  • Sacramento is 21-26-3 ATS this season (44.7-percent)
  • Sacramento is 9-12 ATS at home
  • Sacramento is on a one-game ATS winning streak

EXPERT AGAINST THE SPREAD ADVICE: WARRIORS -12.5 (-110)

A 12.5-point spread is a big number for any team to cover, but the Warriors aren’t any team. The defending champs own the largest margin of victory in the NBA and have outscored teams by an average of 8.8 points over their last five games. Their current mark is down from their historic runs in 2014-15 and 2015-16, but nobody turns a four-point lead into a 20-point blow out faster than Golden State. Their ability to put up points in a hurry is unrivaled, and will be on display tonight as the Warriors slice through the Kings’ defense like a knife through warm butter.

Game Total Betting

BEST OVER ODDS: 218.5 (-105)

BEST UNDER ODDS: 218.5 (-115)

WARRIORS GAME TOTAL TRENDS

  • Golden State is 26-25 O/U
  • Golden State is 14-12 O/U on the road

KINGS GAME TOTAL TRENDS

  • Sacramento is 26-24 O/U
  • Sacramento is 12-9 O/U at home

EXPERT GAME-TOTAL ADVICE: OVER 218.5 (-105)

One of the most fascinating things to observe in the NBA is how teams bounce back after a stinker of a game. The eggheads at Bet Labs recently looked at 250 games in which home teams were coming off a poor offensive performance and found that their next games surpassed the projected point total nearly 62-percent of the time. It’s an intriguing figure, and it applies perfectly to the Warriors, who are averaging a ridiculous 126.7 points per game after a loss this season.

Expect Golden State to put the pedal to the metal again tonight and remind everyone why they’re the prohibitive favorites to win their second straight NBA championship.

Additional SU Picks

Warriors vs Kings is just one of nine games on tap on Friday night. Here are our other eight straight up picks.

Match Up SU Pick
Pacers vs Hornets Hornets
Hawks vs Celtics Celtics
Lakers vs Nets Nets
Blazers vs Raptors Raptors
Heat vs 76ers 76ers
Knicks vs Bucks Bucks
Pelicans vs Thunder Thunder
Jazz vs Suns Suns
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