- Mavericks-Warriors kick off West Final with Game 1 on Wednesday (May 18)
- Dallas is coming off stunning Game 7 win over the top-seeded Phoenix Suns
- See the Mavericks vs Warriors Game 1 opening odds, preview and prediction below
The Golden State Warriors have already dispatched the league’s MVP and Most Improved Player en route to the Western Conference Finals.
They’ll now have to oust the best player in these playoffs — Luka Doncic and the upstart Dallas Mavericks — to return to the NBA Finals.
Game 1 of the West Finals goes Wednesday from the Chase Center in San Francisco, with tip-off at 9pm ET, in a tilt that can be seen live on TNT.
Mavericks vs Warriors Game 1 Odds
|Dallas Mavericks||+185||+5.0 (-110)||Ov 214.5 (-110)|
|Golden State Warriors||-225||-5.0 (-110)||Un 214.5 (-110)|
Odds as of May 17th at Caesars Sportsbook
Despite blasting Phoenix, the NBA’s top playoff seed, in Round 2, the Mavericks are pegged as a 5-point underdog, with an over/under set at 214.5.
Mavericks vs Warriors Betting Analysis
It’s Luka Doncic’s breakout party, and the 23-year-old has been inflicting punishment to everyone in these playoffs. He’s coming off a 35-point, 10-rebound, 4-assist gem in a 123-90 obliteration of the Suns in Game 7. He completed that in just three quarters of work.
Luka Doncic went off in game seven to eliminate the Suns! 😤 pic.twitter.com/Q2rt5rSTMa
— ESPN UK (@ESPNUK) May 16, 2022
It appears that Andrew Wiggins will draw the primary assignment guarding Luka. Wiggins is an all-star (weird, right?) and a plus-defender, but Doncic is playing at a level where Jason Kidd doesn’t even need to seek out a mismatch.
As the games get tighter, though, look for Dallas to seek out Steph Curry, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson to let Doncic cook.
Spencer Dinwiddie on playing @warriors in WCF:
"They are one of the most historic teams of All-Time. Their Nucleus is still intact [&] Jordan Poole has been playing amazing. So, we will have our work cut out for us."#MFFL #DubNation pic.twitter.com/TkEV9svwlJ
— Landon Buford (@LandonBuford) May 16, 2022
Doncic needs to be his all-world self, but someone else must join the scoring party. Spencer Dinwiddie finally awoke at the end of the Phoenix series, dropping 30 in the closer. Jalen Brunson had 24, and averaged 18.7 points in the series.
Golden State may have ousted Memphis is six, but it’s fair to say they scraped by the final three games of that series — and those were the games without Ja Morant. After struggling much of the series, Klay Thompson erupted for 30 points in the series clincher. Fellow Splash Brother Steph Curry had 29 of his own, but went 10-for-27 from the field to do it.
“Come back, bottle this up… don’t want to see us next year.” – May 21, 2021.
Mini Movie || Western Conference Semifinals 📽️
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) May 17, 2022
We’re going to see just how strong the Warriors’ playoff-leading scoring offense (114.2 points per game) is against the suddenly-stingy Mavericks.
After going eight straight shooting 50% or better in the playoffs, Dallas held the Suns to sub-50% in the final five games of the series. That included three games where they held Phoenix to 94 points or less — their three lowest scoring outputs of the entire season.
Dallas vs Golden State Prediction
Golden State may have Andre Iguodala (neck) back soon, while Otto Porter (foot) is expected to return after missing the last two games. Both would likely get some Doncic-defending minutes.
Draymond Green will likely have to take his turn too, but GState probably wants to save him for only the most crucial instances.
Here is Andrew Wiggins' defensive work on Luka Doncic this season. Guarded him plenty in all four games. Luka made some shots, but this is good tape from Wiggins. Limited the easy looks, caused some turnovers. pic.twitter.com/kn40X2HZSi
— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) May 16, 2022
Can Golden State limit their turnovers? They coughed it up 19.2 times a game against the Grizzlies, including a pair o f 20+ eyesores.
Empty possessions will be harder to make up, because Dallas plods along, leaving their star to do much of the heavy lifting.
Of the 16 squads that started the playoffs, Dallas currently ranks 15th in player movement and 16th in ball movement. That’s a stark contrast to the Warriors, who are first in both categories.
Steve Kerr was asked if he almost broke a clipboard while watching the Warriors from home: “No, but the beer mug I was drinking my beer out of was close to being shattered after a couple of those turnovers.” 😂
— 95.7 The Game (@957thegame) May 16, 2022
Golden State has won the first game in each of their first two series, while Dallas has taken an L in each of their series openers.
As we looked at the betting trends, we talked about that generous total. Make that bet, but here’s a spread wager to consider.
Dallas is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games at Golden State, while the Warriors are now 0-5 ATS in their last five playoff games following a straight up win. Dallas is also 4-0 ATS in these playoffs on two days of rest or more.
The pick: Mavericks +5 (-110)