2018 March Madness Title Odds: Xavier’s for Real; is Duke?

• The NCAA Tournament selection committee’s first seeds are out and the title odds have shifted.
• Should Xavier have the longest odds of the #1 seeds?
• Is there any value betting big names like Duke and Trae Young at this point?

The NCAA Tournament selection committee revealed its first iteration of the top 16 seeds for March Madness last weekend and, if the season ended today, Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, and Purdue would be the four #1 seeds. With a few weeks of regular-season play plus conference tournaments still to go, much and more is going to change before Selection Sunday arrives. But the big reveal — and the last two weeks of play, more generally — have shifted the 2018 national title futures at many online sportsbooks.

Who’s trending up, who’s trending down, and where should bettors be placing their money at this stage? Here are some 2018 March Madness props.

Xavier Is Being Overlooked and Underrated

The odds for the top teams in the nation have been steadily converging over the course of the year, as the chart below shows. Three of the current #1 seeds are, on average, shorter than +1000 (10/1): Villanova (+570), Virginia (+580), and Purdue (+900). Xavier is the outlier at +1700.

Xavier has its flaws. They are 66th in defensive efficiency on KenPom, which is a huge warning sign, as almost all recent March Madness champions have been very good at that end of the floor (like, top-ten good). But most national champs also have experienced, elite backcourts, and the Musketeers have that in spades. Trevon Bluiett and JP Macura took Xavier to the Elite Eight just last season, and have now guided their team to a 23-3 overall record and first place in the Big East.

The computer rankings (KenPom, Sagarin, etc.) don’t love the Musketeers because they’ve played a lot of close games. They have also shown a ton of mental toughness in those nail-biters, though, and that is great training for March when the lights are a little brighter and scores a little closer. Should Xavier be a bit longer than the other #1 seeds? Yes. Should they be twice as long? No chance. Nova, Virginia, and Purdue all have their own flaws.

If they played on a neutral court tomorrow, I’d take Xavier over Villanova, so I’m certainly taking them to beat the Wildcats at home this weekend. If they do, these odds are going to get shorter; jump on the Musketeers now if you want to bet on one of the current #1 seeds.

At present, the best payout for Xavier is +2000 (20/1).

Are the Sooners Goners?

Trae Young: in the first few months of the season, you couldn’t escape the name. The freshman sensation burst onto the scene with multiple 30-plus-point, 10-plus-assist performances and looked like the second coming of Steph Curry, launching deep triple after deep triple. When he went for 39 and 14 in a one-point road win over then-#10 TCU, he was all but anointed National Player of the Year. When he went for 43 points, 11 boards, and seven assists in the rematch (a 102-97 win), every scout in the nation soiled themselves.

Young has cooled off considerably, though, and so has Oklahoma. He’s missed 18 of his last 19 threes and the Sooners (6-7 Big 12) have lost five of their last six. Once as short as +1600 (16/1), the team is now +3500 (35/1), and that is not an overreaction.

The Sooners are abhorrent defensively, sitting 91st in defensive efficiency on KenPom and surrendering 82.2 PPG (337th in the nation). When Young was playing like one of the greatest players in the history of college basketball, that was fine. But when he’s not historically great, this team struggles. They don’t have the depth to pick up the slack. There’s good reason why they were 100/1 longshots in the preseason and given a 4.7% chance to win the Big 12. Khadeem Lattin + Christian James + Brady Manek ≠ national championship. That’s just simple math.

There’s good reason [the Sooners] were 100/1 longshots in the preseason …

Trae could heat up again and carry Oklahoma to six straight wins in the tourney. That’s within the realm of possibility. We have seen the Sooners beat Wichita State, Texas Tech, Kansas, and TCU (twice). Somewhere in there is a team capable of winning the title. But it would require perhaps the greatest single-player March Madness performance ever, and betting on massive anomalies is not how you profit longterm.

That bit of wisdom aside, I can’t think of a more fun bet than sprinkling a couple dollars on Young and Oklahoma, and if fun is what you’re after, sportsbooks have the best odds for the Sooners (+4000).

Any Value on the Blue Devils?

Quel surprise! Duke’s odds to win the national championship are incredibly short, sitting at +570 on average.

Don’t get me wrong. Duke has dudes. Marvin Bagley is (soon to be) a first team All-American and top-five NBA draft pick. Wendell Carter is another likely lottery pick. Trevon Duval will probably go in the first round. The Blue Devils were the consensus preseason #1 precisely because of the sheer level of talent on their roster. They are so stacked with future pros that I haven’t even mentioned Grayson Allen yet.

But, unlike past years, Coach K’s squad isn’t getting better as the season progresses; it’s getting worse. Early-season wins over Michigan State, Texas, and Florida are a distant memory (and the Florida win hasn’t aged well), replaced by bad losses to Boston College and St. John’s, plus setbacks to Virginia and bitter rival UNC. They are currently just 7-5 against teams in the top 100 of the RPI, and 1-2 against the top 25.

[U]nlike past years, Coach K’s squad isn’t getting better as the season progresses; it’s getting worse.

In keeping with the accidental theme of this article, defense is the issue. The Blue Devils are 61st in defensive efficiency on KenPom, and their second-ranked offense hasn’t been able to compensate the way it did early in the year. This is starting to become a them with Coach K in the one-and-done era: his five-star freshman struggle with the very concept of team defense. It makes sense. They were never really asked to play much team defense in high school and AAU. They were the offensive focal points at all times, until now.

Monitor Duke closely down the stretch. They won the title in 2015 despite entering the tournament with discouraging defensive numbers. If they show signs of improvement at that end of the floor, they will be as good a bet as any to win the title. (It’s a common refrain, but there really is no truly dominant team this season.) Based on the way they have been playing of late though, in particular their inability to get stops even when they need to late in games, I don’t see much value in Durham.