Upcoming Match-ups

LSU vs Missouri Picks and Odds

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Updated Mar 5, 2021 · 6:21 PM PST

Cameron Thomas
LSU guard Cameron Thomas goes to the basket against Tennessee guard Jaden Springer (11) in the second half an NCAA college basketball game in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Feb. 13, 2021. LSU won 65-78. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
  • Missouri is a 1-point home favorite versus LSU on Saturday (March 6th, 3 pm ET)
  • Both programs have been cashing over tickets for bettors at a high clip this season
  • See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction

Saturday marks the final day of play on the SEC regular season schedule, and two teams that appear to be headed to the NCAA Tournament will square off in Columbia, MO.

The home town Missouri Tigers (15-7, 8-7 SEC) will host the LSU Tigers (15-8, 10-6 SEC) at 3 pm ET, fresh off a thrilling victory at Florida. LSU meanwhile, is coming off a victory of its own, beating up on a shorthanded Vanderbilt squad.

LSU vs Missouri Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
LSU Tigers +1.0 (-105) OFF Over 155.0 (-110)
Missouri Tigers -1.0 (-115) OFF Under 155.0 (-110)

Odds taken March 5th.

Mizzou opened up as a 1-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 155. Both programs have seen the majority of their games go over the total this season, which is surprising in Missouri’s case because they are far from an offensive juggernaut.

LSU on the other hand, has proven all year that it can score with any team in the nation.

LSU Mauls Vanderbilt

The boys from Baton Rouge handled the Commodores with relative ease last time out, cruising to a 83-68 victory, and snapping a two-game losing streak along the way. Cam Thomas, the SEC’s leading scorer, led the way with 23 points and 10 rebounds, collecting his first double-double of the campaign.

The Freshman has now reached at least 20 points in nine straight games, and is only one of two players in the conference who averages over 17.5 points per night. Trendon Watford chipped in with 14 points and 13 boards, while Darrius Day also had a double-double (13 pts, 10 reb). The Tigers shot 46.2% from the field, and 38.5% from beyond the arc, while dominating the rebounding and assist battle.

Strong shooting numbers are nothing new for LSU, as they rank second in the SEC in field-goal percentage, and ninth in the nation in points per game. Their offense has propelled them to success all season, and the main reason why they’re likely to be March Madness bound. They currently project as an 8 or 9 seed, but that could improve with a win against Mizzou and upset over #8 Alabama or #12 Arkansas in next week’s conference tournament.

Missouri Squeaks Past Florida

Missouri meanwhile, pulled out a 2-point victory over Florida on Wednesday, thanks to a Dru Smith layup with just 0.7 seconds remaining. It was the Tigers first ever win in Gainesville, and it came following four losses in their previous five games.

Smith led the way versus the Gators with 17 points, 9 assists and a career-high 6 steals. Mitchell Smith poured in 14, as did Xavier Pinson, on the strength of four three-balls.

Mizzou shot 45.9% from the field, and 40.9% from beyond the arc, but did a terrible job of limiting Florida shooters. They allowed the Gators to knock down 58.1% of their looks, which is a recipe for disaster if that happens again versus LSU.

Most of Missouri’s offensive and defensive stats rank in the middle of the pack in the SEC, but it’s impossible to ignore the success they’ve had despite the pedestrian numbers. Their resume includes wins over Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Illinois and Oregon, all teams that were ranked when they squared off. They currently project as a 7 seed in the NCAA tournament, and like LSU could wind up higher with a strong conference tourney run.

Expect Offensive Fireworks

As mentioned earlier, both LSU and Missouri games tend to go over. LSU has seen 10 of 16 conference games eclipse the total, while 62.5% of Mizzou’s home outings have gone over.

LSU owns the best offense in the SEC, and commit the fewest turnovers in the conference despite playing at a very fast rate. Missouri’s most recent outing shouldn’t inspire any confidence that they can slow down LSU, while the Baton Rouge boys aren’t exactly shut down defenders. LSU ranks 10th out of 14 SEC teams in points allowed, and has surrendered at least 76  points in six of its past eight contests.

Pick: Over 155 (-110)


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