The 5 Best Teams to Bet in 2019 March Madness Against the Spread
- The 2019 NCAA Tournament starts on Thursday, Mar. 21st
- Which of the teams that made the field are covering the spread at the highest rate?
- Learn which five schools have produced the best betting results in 2018-19
On Monday, the five worst March Madness teams to bet against the spread were highlighted.
Today, the teams at the other end of the chart get some much-deserved recognition.
Heading into the first round of the NCAA Tournament, here are the five best teams in terms of ATS performance in the 2018-19 season.
5. Vermont Catamounts (#13 Seed, East Region)
| Straight-up W/L Record | ATS Record | Cover Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 27-6 | 20-10-2 | 66.7% |
- $100 bet on each game = $818.2
- +8.2 units
The first team on the list is also the one with the worst seed. Vermont has a strong case that it deserves better than a #13 seed after going 27-6 with a 2-2 record against fellow tournament teams (won vs Yale and Northeastern, lost vs Louisville and Kansas).
But, despite scheduling aggressively in non-conference play, their America East schedule left them with just the 317th toughest slate, and that hurt them with the Selection Committee.
Like another team on this list, Vermont has seen its ATS results return to Earth as the year has progressed. The Catamounts are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
That said, they have a future pro in Anthony Lamb (21.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG) who has produced at a high level against quality competition.
Not sure if this sign is true, but Anthony Lamb is the best kept secret in college basketball. The America East POY, he dropped 28 points in the title game today on ESPN2 #ChampWeek pic.twitter.com/v0ViIB20be
— Paul Biancardi (@PaulBiancardi) March 16, 2019
The 6’6 junior scored 24 points vs Kansas, 25 vs Louisville, 21 vs Lipscomb, 37 vs Harvard, 34 vs Yale, and 42 vs St Bonaventure, helping Vermont go 4-1-1 ATS in its five toughest games.
The Catamounts got a bad draw in the Round of 64, facing #4 Florida State, which just beat #1 seed Virginia (who may or may not make an appearance below) in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. But Vermont is getting 9.5 points in that one.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels (#1 Seed, Midwest Region)
| Straight-up W/L Record | ATS Record | Cover Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 27-6 | 21-10-2 | 67.7% |
- $100 bet on each game = $909.11
- +9.1 units
It’s rare to see public teams like North Carolina near the top of the ATS standings, but here they are. How’d that happen?
The Tar Heels had their best ACC season ever under Roy Williams (who’s been in Chapel Hill since 2004), running up a 16-2 record to share the regular-season title with Virginia.
They laid a few eggs along the way, including neutral-site losses to a mediocre Texas team and Kentucky, along with a convincing road setback at Michigan, and their worst home loss ever under Williams against Louisville. But for the most part, they obliterated their competition.
Double-digit wins against Wofford (78-67, away), Gonzaga (103-90, home), Louisville (79-69, away), and FSU(77-59, home) are just a sampling of their virtuoso performances this year. There was also this …
Zion Williamson or no Zion Williamson, routing the Blue Devils by 16 points in Durham is an achievement.
UNC plays the #16 Iona Gaels in the first round are are currently favored by about 24 points.
3. Michigan State Spartans (#2 Seed, East Region)
| Straight-up W/L Record | ATS Record | Cover Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 28-6 | 24-10-0 | 70.6% |
- $100 bet on each game = $1,181.84
- +11.8 units
Michigan State lost two lottery picks last offseason (Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson Jr.) and were, very reasonably, expected to take a step back in 2018-19.
Instead, point guard Cassius Winston (18.9 PPG, 7.6 AGP, 40.4 3P%) turned himself into arguably the best floor general in the country. Through significant personnel changes and key injuries to Joshua Langford, Nick Ward, and Kyle Ahrens, Winston kept the MSU train rolling along.
BIG TEN CHAMPS?
Cassius Winston with the big time layup! MSU came back from down 13 to beat Michigan 65-60 pic.twitter.com/hOOztHsrUp— BettorIQ (@BettorIQ) March 17, 2019
Sparty finished the year tied with Purdue atop the Big Ten standings, won the conference tournament, and owns three come-from-behind victories over archrival Michigan.
Expectations weren’t exactly low in East Lansing, but as MSU’s gaudy 24-10-0 ATS record shows, sportsbooks were not expecting Tom Izzo’s squad to be nearly this good.
Michigan State is an 18.5-point favorite over the #15 Bradley Braves in the Round of 64.
T1. Ole Miss Rebels (#8 Seed, South Region
| Straight-up W/L Record | ATS Record | Cover Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 20-12 | 23-9-0 | 71.9% |
- $100 bet on each game = $1,190.03
- +11.9 units
Kermit Davis was supposed to struggle in his first year on the sideline in Oxford. I guess no one told Kermit.
The Rebels, picked to finish last in the SEC in the preseason, exceeded expectations from the get go. They started the year on a 13-2 run, going 14-1 ATS in that span.
FINAL IN STARKVILLE: Ole Miss 81, No. 14 Mississippi State 77.
The same Rebels who were picked last in the preseason SEC poll are now 13-2 with wins over Auburn/Mississippi State. Should be ranked in Monday’s AP poll. Kermit Davis’ first year in Oxford is off to a great start.
— Gary Parrish (@GaryParrishCBS) January 12, 2019
Some easy math shows they have come back to reality. Ole Miss is just 7-10 SU since then and 9-8 against the number. If you weren’t on the Rebs early, you may have missed the boat.
They open the NCAA Tournament as 1.5-point favorites against #9 Oklahoma.
T1. Virginia Cavaliers (#1 Seed, South Region)
| Straight-up W/L Record | ATS Record | Cover Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 29-3 | 23-9-0 | 71.9% |
- $100 bet on each game = $1,190.03
- +11.9 units
If you can get past last year’s shocking first-round upset to UMBC, Virginia has been the safest bet, not just this year, but going back to 2017-18 as well. They are 44-18-1 over the last two seasons. They are one of only two DI teams to cover at a 70% rate over the last 24 months. (The other is UT Rio Grande Valley.)
If you need more reasons to put your faith in the first #1 seed to lose in the Round of 64, consider this: when they were stunned by the Retrievers last year, the Cavs were ranked 30th in offensive efficiency and were without their most dynamic player (De’Andre Hunter).
This year, Hunter is healthy and the team, as a whole, ranks second in the entire nation in offensive efficiency.
3⃣rd Team All-American#Wahoowa, De’Andre Hunter! ?#GoHoos ?? pic.twitter.com/B6eewEybmH
— Virginia Cavaliers (@VirginiaSports) March 19, 2019
If Virginia loses to #16 Gardner Webb as 25-point favorites, I’ll eat the remnants of Kyle Guy’s man-bun from 2016.
SBD’s Regional Previews
- Odds to Win the West Region of 2019 March Madness Tournament
- Duke Listed as Odds-On Favorite to Win East Region of March Madness Bracket
- South Region Preview: Virginia Listed at +140 to Reach Final Four
- Midwest Region Odds: UNC Given Worst Odds of #1 Seeds to Make Final Four
SBD’s Other March Madness coverage:
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
