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Alabama vs Oklahoma Odds and Picks

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Jan 29, 2021 · 6:21 PM PST

John Petty Jr. dribbling
Alabama guard John Petty Jr. (23) dribbles on the perimeter against Kentucky during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Tuesday, Jan. 26, 2021, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)
  • #9 Alabama (14-3, 9-0 SEC) battles #24 Oklahoma (10-4, 6-3 Big 12) on Saturday, Jan. 30, at 12pm ET
  • Both teams rank inside KenPom’s top 20, and the Crimson Tide haven’t lost since Dec. 19
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

A rare and marquee non-conference matchup in the heart of winter takes place on Saturday, Jan. 30, when #9 Alabama heads to #24 Oklahoma. Both teams have posted very strong results ATS, especially of late, which makes this a tricky game to pick.

It’ll be a fun one to watch, though, so what’s the harm in putting a little money down? Here’s how oddsmakers are sizing this one up:

Alabama vs Oklahoma Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Alabama +108 +1.5 (-110) Over 154.5 (-108)
Oklahoma -126 -1.5 (-110) Under 154.5 (-112)

Odds as of Jan. 29th, 2020 at FanDuel.

How They’ve Fared Recently

Alabama hasn’t lost since Dec. 19, rattling off 10-straight wins (nine of which have come against KenPom top-100 teams from the SEC). The Crimson Tide are known for two things: playing lightning quick and shooting lots of threes.

They have the third-shortest average possession length in NCAA Division I (14.3 seconds), and 47.4% of their field goal attempts come from beyond the arc (15th in D-I). Given that their 3-point shooting comes at an above average clip (36%, 77th in D-I), that’s not a bad strategy.

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And it’s been working, as they’ve won four of their past five by double digits. Most notably, they demolished LSU, 105-75, on Jan. 19 as 1-point favorites.

Oklahoma has won four in a row after consecutive losses against #2 Baylor and #15 Kansas. That includes a revenge win against the Jayhawks, as well as a narrow 80-79 win over #5 Texas.

Against the Longhorns on Tuesday, the Sooners had a balanced attack of four double-digit scorers, led by 23 from senior guard Austin Reaves. He’s one of their primary contributors, with 15.8 points and 5.1 rebounds per game this season.

ATS Analysis

Alabama is 11-5-1 against the spread, but they’ve been far better than that of late, winning nine of their past 10 ATS. The Crimson Tide are also 4-0 ATS on the road this season.

They’re blowing out most opponents on the spread of late, with six of their past eight ATS wins coming by 13 or more points. Also, the over has hit in five of their past seven.

Oklahoma is 9-5 ATS, with seven ATS wins in its past eight games. The Sooners are 7-2 ATS at home this year and they’ve won four of their past five ATS as underdogs (including three in a row straight up as underdogs).

All of this is to say that both teams are scorching right now. But as always, only one can win!

Head-to-Head Matchup

These teams haven’t played each other in three years, when a pair of freshmen guards (Trae Young and Collin Sexton) were leading the way. Young and Sexton are both NBA stars now, so that matchup from January 2018 is clearly outdated.

So we can’t really use head-to-head results. We can stack up head-to-head strengths and weaknesses, though.

When Alabama is on offense, their adjusted efficiency (15th in D-I) stands taller than Oklahoma’s adjusted defensive efficiency (40th in D-I). When the court is reversed, Alabama’s adjusted defensive efficiency (8th in D-I) outshines Oklahoma’s adjusted offensive efficiency (19th in D-I), too.

Putting those things together, plus Alabama’s unbeaten ATS road record, makes the Crimson Tide an enticing pick in this very interesting game. In fact, we’ll actually go further and take them as the straight up pick.

Pick: Alabama +1.5 (-110)

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