Upcoming Match-ups

Baylor vs Kansas Picks and Odds

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Feb 26, 2021 · 7:56 PM PST

Adam Flagler layup at the rim
Baylor guard Adam Flagler (10) goes up for a shot over Stephen F. Austin forward Gavin Kensmil, left, during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Waco, Texas, Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2020. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
  • The #17 Kansas Jayhawks (17-8, 11-6 Big 12) battle the #2 Baylor Bears (18-0, 10-0 Big 12) on Saturday, Feb. 27 at 8:00 pm ET
  • The Jayhawks have won six in a row, and they’ll look to avenge a loss to Baylor from earlier in the season
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

The Baylor Bears are a curious case in college basketball right now. On one hand, they are literally perfect, and that’s no small feat. On the other hand, they have played just once in the past three-plus weeks — and they did not look good, even in a winning effort.

Suffice it to say, the Bears will have to be ready with their A-game material on Saturday, Feb. 27 for an 8:00 pm ET tip off against the Kansas Jayhawks. Baylor earned a win at home over Kansas earlier this year, but the Jayhawks are a different beast in their own arena (usually). Here’s a look at the odds.

#17 Kansas vs #2 Baylor Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Baylor -5.5 (-110) N/A Over 142 (-110)
Kansas +5.5 (-110) N/A Under 142 (-110)

Odds as of Feb. 26th, 2021 at FanDuel.

How They’ve Fared Recently

Is Baylor rusty right now? It’s a fair question to ask after they squeaked past Iowa State (156th in KenPom) on Tuesday in a 77-72 win. The Cyclones — who are 2-17 this year — held a lead inside the game’s final five minutes! That’s really not supposed to happen. They also blew away the 24-point spread.

Baylor, meanwhile, was not its usual self from 3-pt. range, shooting 32 percent (8-of-25). The Bears are the best 3-point shooting team in NCAA Division I this season, with a 43.2 percent rate. They are also second in D-I in effective field goal percentage (58.6 percent). This is one of the very best offenses around.

It’s tough to know, though, if Baylor is still rusty — or if the Iowa State game was their opportunity to shake off the rust? Kansas will be able to test that out.

The Jayhawks suffered a tough overtime loss to Texas on Tuesday, shooting just 12-of-21 (57.1 percent) from free throw range. Kansas is not usually a great free throw team, but definitely better than that (71.5 percent, 151st in D-I).

That loss was Kansas’s first in six games, so they’re still a pretty hot team entering Saturday. They’ll try to use their 11th ranked adjusted defensive efficiency to slow down the Bears’ scoring attack.

ATS Analysis

Baylor is 13-5 against the spread overall this year, including a 5-1 ATS record on the road. They’ve lost two of their past three ATS, but they’ve covered in their past four road games.

The Jayhawks are 12-11-1 ATS this season, with a 6-5 ATS home record. They’ve only suffered one ATS loss since February began (7-1-1) and they’re 11-1 straight up at home this year. Then again, Baylor is 6-0 straight up on the road.

Head-to-Head Matchup

These teams matched up on Jan. 18 at Baylor, where the Bears earned a 77-69 win (Kansas narrowly earned the ATS win as 8.5-point underdogs). Baylor never trailed, and they maintained a double-digit lead for most of the second half.

YouTube video

Kansas has largely looked much better in the time since that game. Baylor has still looked great for the most part, but their inability to practice as a team much over the past three weeks is a legitimate concern.

Perhaps the Jayhawks won’t earn win No. 12 at home this weekend, but they are an enticing team to pick on the spread.

Pick: Kansas +5.5 (-110)

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