Baylor vs Duke Odds, Player Props & Predictions (Dec. 20)

• The #10 Baylor Bears tangle with the #21 Duke Blue Devils at MSG in New York
• Baylor was embarrassed by Michigan State last time out, dropping it from the ranks of the unbeaten
• See the Baylor vs Duke odds, player props, and picks for Wednesday’s game at Madison Square Garden

The #10 Baylor Bears (9-1, 3-0 neutral, 6-2-1 ATS) travel to Madison Square Garden in New York for a neutral-court date with the #21 Duke Blue Devils (7-3, 1-0 neutral, 5-5 ATS) on Wednesday night at 7:00 pm ET.

Despite an underwhelming start to the season, the three-loss Blue Devils are listed as 3.5-point neutral-court favorites over the one-loss Bears.

Baylor vs Duke Odds

Duke is also -155 on the moneyline in Wednesday’s NCAA basketball odds while the Bears come back at +135 to win straight up. With two of the top-10 most-efficient offenses meeting on Wednesday, the game total is at a relatively high 153.5. Baylor is 6-3 over/under through its first nine DI games. Duke is 5-5.

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Odds as of Dec. 20 at ESPN Bet. Get an ESPN Bet promo code to wager on Baylor vs Duke on Wednesday night.

Duke, which started the season second only to Kansas in the March Madness championship odds, has fallen out of the top five at +2071 on average, which is only narrowly ahead of 11th-favorite Baylor (+2243).

Baylor Embarrassed by Michigan State

After a brilliant 9-0 start to the season, which included a, 88-82 neutral-court win over Auburn (currently the no. 7 team at KenPom), the Bears fell flat on their face when they met Michigan State in Detroit. They allowed the Spartans to go on a 27-4 run in the first half and never narrowed the gap to less than 20 thereafter, ultimately losing 88-64 as 3.5-point road favorites.

Baylor wasn’t terrible shooting the ball (47.9% from the field and 31.6% from three) but those are both well below their season averages, and they committed an ugly 21 turnovers while getting out-rebounded 29-20. Baylor was also the victim of other-worldly shooting from the Spartans, who hit 63.3% of their shots from the floor including 66.7% from three.

On the whole, Scott Drew’s Bears have one of the deepest and most-balanced attacks in the nation. Six players are averaging over 10.0 PPG but no one is averaging more than 14.3 (Ja’Kobe Walter).

The poor performance on the boards against MSU was highly unusual for Baylor. They sit eighth in DI in offensive rebounding percentage, though are only middle of the pack (165th) at the defensive end. They currently rank first out of all 362 Division I teams in three-point percentage (44.6%) and fifth in effective field-goal percentage (59.0).

Duke Returns from Long Layoff

Duke’s last game came eight days ago at home against no. 101 Hofstra. While they ultimately won and covered (89-68 as 15.5-point favorites) they started slowly. Hofstra actually led 37-32 just before halftime but a pair of 15-2 and 12-0 runs in the final 25 minutes put any longshot upset dreams to bed.

Sophomore center Kyle Filipowski had another monster game with 28 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists. The third-favorite in the Wooden Award odds, the seven-foot center leads Duke is scoring (18.4 PPG), rebounding (9.3 RPG), blocks (1.9 BPG), and steals (1.2 SPG).

Duke’s best win of the season, coincidentally, came against the team that just routed Baylor: Michigan State. The Blue Devils took down the Spartans 74-65 in Chicago on Nov. 10. Duke controlled the game almost from the opening tip, never trailing after 7-6 and taking an 11-point lead into halftime.

But Duke’s resume also includes some curious results. The Blue Devils lost at Georgia Tech (72-68) in their first (and so far only) ACC game of the season as 12.5-point road favorites.

Baylor vs Duke Player Props

Player props as of Dec. 20 on the FanDuel app.

Filipowski leads the player props with an over/under point total of 17.5, roughly one point fewer than his season average. Walter is the highest of the Bears at just 12.5.

Baylor vs Duke Prediction

I love the Bears’ first-half moneyline tonight for a few reasons. First, Duke has had a long layoff and has already put in some truly concerning first-half performances this year. In addition to trailing Arizona by nine at the break at home, they also trailed 335th-rated Southern Indiana 35-31 at halftime and, as mentioned, were down 37-32 to Hofstra after 16 minutes (both at home, as well).

In addition, Duke’s win over Michigan State remains its only victory over a team rated in KenPom’s top 75. They are 0-2 against top 75 teams including the loss to Arizona and a road setback at no. 54 Arkansas (80-75). In contrast, Baylor already owns wins over no. 7 Auburn and no. 36 Florida (95-91), both on neutral courts.

At the end of the year, the blowout loss to Michigan State is going to look like the aberration that it was. Baylor was sloppy and the Spartans shot the lights out. It happens. The Bears are still a national championship-calibre team.

Duke vs Baylor pick: Baylor first-half moneyline (+115)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

• ATS: 13-10 (+1.79 units)
• Moneyline: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
• Player props: 1-2 (-1.13 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.