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Baylor vs OK State Odds, Spread and Predictions (Feb. 27)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Feb 26, 2023 · 7:35 PM PST

Feb 25, 2023; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard LJ Cryer (4) dives to the basket past Texas Longhorns forward Dylan Disu (1) during the second half at Ferrell Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports
  • Big 12 rivals Baylor and Oklahoma State meet in a conference game on Monday, February 27
  • No. 9 Baylor is a 2.5-point road favorite over Oklahoma State in Stillwater
  • Read below for Baylor vs OK State odds, analysis and prediction

No. 9 Baylor (21-8, 10-6 Big 12) is a 1.5-point road favorite over Oklahoma State in a Big 12 game at 9 pm ET Monday on ESPN. The Bears broke a two-game losing with an 81-72 home victory over No. 8 Texas on Saturday.

Oklahoma State (16-13, 7-9 Big 12) has lost four in a row after falling to No. 14 Kansas State 73-68 at home Saturday. The Cowboys also lost to No. 3 Kansas and No. 24 TCU in that stretch.

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Baylor Bears -1.5 (-110) -122 Over 142.5 (-110)
Oklahoma State Cowboys +1.5 (-110) +104 Under 142.5 (-110)

Baylor is a 1.5-point favorite over host Oklahoma State, and the Bears have had the upper hand in the series that is played twice a year for the better part of a decade. Baylor is 13-3 SU and 8-7-1 ATS since the 2016 season. The teams have split the last four games, dating to the Cowboys’ 83-74 victory in the semifinals of the 2021 Big 12 tournament. The Bears are 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games in Stillwater, covering the last three as a favorite of at least 5.5 points.

Baylor is 15-13-1 ATS this season, 3-5-1 on the road. Oklahoma State is 14-15 ATS, 9-6 at home. The Cowboys are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in Big 12 games at Gallagher-Iba Arena. The Bears are 15-14 against the over. Oklahoma State is 14-15.


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Baylor Wins … Loses

Baylor dug itself out of a 14-point hole to beat Texas, but the victory was tempered when freshman guard Keyonte George  suffered a right ankle injury at 11:32 of the first half and did not return. George and Texas guard Sir’Jabari Rice got tangled while George dribbled near midcourt. Senior guard Dale Bonner filled in admirably with 13 points (one short of a career high), four assists and two steals in 20 minutes after playing only 36 minutes in the previous seven games. But the Bears will need George if they are to make another long NCAA Tournament run.

George (16.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists) left the arena in a walking boot Saturday, and his status is unknown. George, projected to be a mid-first round pick in the 2023 NBA draft, leads a perimeter attack that is among the best Division I. The Bears average 9.5 three-point makes per game behind George (72 threes) and  guards Adam Flagler (15.5 points, 4.8 assists, 68 threes) and LJ Cryer (14.7 points, 67 threes).

The Bears are at their best when defending/rebounding frontcourt players 6’7″ Jalen Bridges and 6’10” Flo Thamba contribute offensively. Bridges had 17 points and eight rebounds against Texas and Thamba had 12 points and 12 rebounds, his 13th career double-double. Thamba is the only starter remaining from 2021 national championship team, although Flagler was a key contributor off the bench.

Oklahoma State Precariously Placed

How well-respected in the Big 12, which Dickie V. called it the best league he has seen in 20 years. Despite 13 losses and a losing conference record, Oklahoma State was considered one of the last four teams in the NCAA field of 68 as late as Friday, but that was before the Cowboys’ losing streak reached four games last Saturday. They really could use the kind of late-season signature victory a win over Baylor would provide. Their best so far — a two-game sweep over Iowa State and a home win against TCU.

The Cowboys won their first three games after senior point guard/sticky defender Avery Anderson III (11.4 points, 3.4 assists) underwent left wrist surgery in early February but have declined recently despite the strong play of forward Kalib Boone (12.0 points, 5.1 rebounds). Mike Boynton is a defense-first coach, and the Cowboys are limiting opponents to 40.4 percent shooting from the field, 31.1 percent from distance. But their two worst showings have coming during the losing streak, against Kansas (53.8 percent) on Feb. 14 and against TCU (63.4) four days later.

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Prediction

Baylor is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four Big 12 road games, but that comes with mitigation. The Bears played ranked opponents Kansas State, Kansas, TCU and Texas in that stretch, winning in Fort Worth. The Cowboys do not present similar issues, especially with top guard Avery Anderson III out with an injury. The Bears won the first meeting at home 74-58 on Jan. 14, when they made nine threes and held the Cowboys to 38.3 percent from the field. It is difficult to see things changing much. Give the points on the road.

  • Pick: Baylor -1.5 (-110)
  • Season CBK: 45-23 ATS 


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