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Baylor vs Texas Odds, Spread & Predictions (Jan. 30)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Updated Apr 11, 2023 · 4:36 PM PDT

Baylor Bears guard Keyonte George celebrates a basket
Jan 28, 2023; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard Keyonte George (1) reacts after a made basket against the Arkansas Razorbacks during the second half at Ferrell Center. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
  • Big 12 title contenders Baylor and Texas meet on Monday, January 30
  • No. 10 Texas is a 3.5-point home favorite over No. 17 Baylor at the Moody Center
  • Read below for Baylor vs Texas odds, analysis and prediction

No. 10 Texas (17-4, 6-2 Big 12) is a 3.5-point home favorite over Baylor in a Big 12 game at 9 pm ET on Monday on ESPN. The Longhorns had won five of its last six games before falling at No. 4 Tennessee in the Big 12/SEC Challenge on Saturday.

No. 17 Baylor (16-5, 5-3 Big 12) has won six straight games after beating Arkansas in the Big 12/SEC Challenge on Saturday. An earlier three-game losing streak dropped  the Bears from the AP Top 25 for the first time since March 23, 2019.

Baylor vs Texas Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Baylor Bears +3.5 (-110) +134 Over 150.5 (-114)
Texas Longhorns -3.5 (-110) -162 Under 150.5 (-106)

Odds from FanDuel on Jan. 29. Claim the FanDuel promo code

Texas is a 3.5-point favorite over Baylor in a series the Bears have dominated for the last half-dozen seasons. Baylor is 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS in the series since 2016. Baylor has won and covered the last five and is 6-1 SU and ATS in the Moody Center since 2016. This the first of the two meetings this season.

Baylor is rolling against the line recently, going is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS since losing to Kansas State on Jan. 7. Texas is 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS since a loss to the Wildcats on Jan. 3. Texas is 8-13 ATS this season, 6-7 at home. Baylor is 10-10-1 ATS, 2-2-1 on the road.


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Texas Goes Beard-less

The Longhorns do not appear to have been fazed by the loss of head coach Chris Beard, who was suspended in mid-December and fired a month later after a domestic dispute. Texas is 10-3 SU since acting head coach Rodney Terry took over for the 87-81 victory over Rice but only 4-9 ATS in that span. Senior guard Marcus Carr (17.3 points, 4.2 assists, 52 threes) leads a balanced, veteran group. Five of the top six scorers are seniors, which probably helped smooth the transition.

Forward 6’6 Timmy Allen (10.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists) and transfer portal guards 6′ Tyrese Hunter (10.1 points) and sixth man 6’4 Sir’Jabari Rice (10.5 points) also are double-digit scorers. Beard preached an aggressive, clog-the-lane defense, and that has not gone away. The Longhorns are limiting opponents to 42.4 percent shooting from the field while shooting 48.1, 24th in Division I.

The Longhorns are tough but do not have a big frontline, and they were dominated inside in the 82-71 loss to Tennessee on Saturday. The Vols had a 38-24 rebound advantage, and 6-9 Olivier Nkamhoua had 27 points and eight boards. Rice had 21 pointes off the bench. Carr, bothered by foul trouble, had 11.

Baylor Bears Bounce Back

Baylor opened Big 12 play with three straight losses, its first such streak since late in the 2018-19, but the Bears have recovered with six in a row behind freshman guard 6’4 Keyonte George, projected to be a high lottery pick in the 2023 NBA draft, and senior guard Adam Flagler. George had 24 points, including seven in a late two-minute span when the Bears pushed a two-point lead to seven in the 67-64 victory over Arkansas.

Guard play continues to be Baylor’s calling card, as it was for the 2021 NCAA championship team. George (17.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 54 threes), the 6′ 3 Flagler (15.5 points, 4.8 assists, 51 threes) and guard 6’1 LJ Cryer (14.5 points, 43 threes) are the double-figure scorers. Baylor is shooting 35.7 percent from distance. The Bears are winning despite offensive issues — they have not shot better than 37.1 percent in the last three games, their worst shooting stretch of the season, and shot a season-low 33.9 percent against the Razorbacks.

Baylor vs Texas Prediction

Baylor likes this spot. The Bears are 12-1 in their last 13 games against teams ranked in the Top 10 of the AP poll, a run that ties the best stretch of any team since the AP poll began in 1948-49. They are 25-8 against Top 25 teams the last four seasons, the best record in Division. I. On top of that, Baylor has dominated this series recently. The trends are there, as much as Texas will be smarting from its out-physicaled loss to Tennessee.

  • Pick: Baylor +3.5 (-110) 
  • Season CBK: 28-15 ATS


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