Can Virginia Challenge Duke in the ACC?
- The Virginia Cavaliers are one of only two undefeated teams left in college basketball.
- The Cavaliers have a better record than Duke, but have much longer March Madness odds.
- Is there any value on betting Virginia to win the NCAA Tournament?
The Virginia Cavaliers 2017-18 season ended in historic fashion, but for all the wrong reasons.
The monumental upset would have derailed most programs, but the Cavaliers are back this year and look poised to capture another number-one seed at the NCAA Tournament.
Virginia basketball has won 12 straight road games, 11 in a row in the ACC. pic.twitter.com/XLlXbj9Uwx
— Lachlan McLean (@LachTalk) January 10, 2019
Heading into their game at Clemson today (12:00 PM ET), they’re one of only two undefeated teams left in college basketball, and they’re tied for the second shortest odds to win March Madness, along with Michigan and Gonzaga. But second is still well behind ACC-rival Duke.
Odds to Win 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | +200 |
| Virginia Cavaliers | +1000 |
| Michigan Wolverines | +1000 |
| Gonzaga Bulldogs | +1000 |
| Tennessee Volunteers | +1400 |
| Kansas Jayhawks | +1400 |
| Kentucky Wildcats | +1600 |
| Michigan State Spartans | +1600 |
| Nevada Wolfpack | +1600 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | +1800 |
*Odds taken 1/12
Despite their flawless record, Virginia’s odds to win the NCAA Tournament have not crept below +1000 all season, but that’s sure to change if they knock off Duke next weekend.
The Cavaliers are cruising
Virginia is not just beating every team they face, they’re destroying them.
The Cavaliers’ average margin of victory is 22.8 points, and they’ve held their opponents to an NCAA low 51.8 points per game. They’re making 40% of their threes, and they force their opposition to commit a turnover on over 20% of their possessions.
It’s not like they are beating up on scrub programs either. Virginia has wins over three of the top-22 ranked teams at kenpom.com, including Wisconsin (11) and Maryland (20).
The ACC is loaded
The ACC is stacked this year, with as many as nine potential tournament teams including the Cavaliers and the number-one ranked Blue Devils.
? New School Record!
@kylejguy5 now owns the school record for consecutive made 3⃣s at 1⃣1⃣
?⚔️? #GoHoos pic.twitter.com/T6FAxHaobR— Virginia Men's Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) January 6, 2019
Duke and Virginia are 1 and 2 in KenPom’s rankings, and seem destined to be the last two ACC teams standing.
The Blue Devils have a higher offensive efficiency rating, while the advantage goes to the Cavaliers at the defensive end. Duke gets all the publicity, but Virginia is a more well rounded team, with much more experience.
They commit the fewest turnovers in the nation, and do the little things better like make their free throws.
Virginia Basketball. A thing of beauty.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) January 10, 2019
We’ve already seen a fundamentally sound Gonzaga team take down Duke this season, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Virginia did the same. Fortunately for college hoops fans, we’re guaranteed to see the Blue Devils and Cavaliers square off at least twice in the next few months.
Is there value on Virginia?
Virginia might be the best team in college basketball.
Their record and statistical performance confirm they’re a dominant program, and they’re number one in the Coaches’ Poll ahead of Duke. There’s no reason their odds to win the National Title should be five times longer than the Blue Devils’, so if you believe in the Cavaliers, bet them now while you can still get a four-digit number.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
