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Duke vs Virginia Picks, Odds & Spread for ACC Championship Game

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in College Basketball

Mar 10, 2023 · 11:26 PM PST

Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski
Mar 10, 2023; Greensboro, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) reacts in the second half during the semifinals of the ACC Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
  • Duke Blue Devils are 2-point favorites over Virginia in ACC Championship final on Saturday, March 11
  • Virginia cruised in their semi-final, while the Blue Devils won by seven points over Miami
  • Below, see the Duke vs Virginia odds and picks for Saturday’s game set for 8:30pm ET

Saturday evening, the fourth-ranked Duke Blue Devils (25-8) will square off against the #2 Virginia Cavaliers (25-6) for the ACC Championship title. Read on for an analysis of Duke vs Virginia.

Duke has been hot at the right time, winning eight straight contests. In their lone matchup this season, the Cavaliers won 69-62 in overtime one month ago. On Friday, Duke dispatched #1 ranked Miami by a count of 85-78, while Virginia crushed third-seeded Clemson 76-56.

Oddsmakers are expecting this to be a close tilt, with Duke a slim 2-point favorite as they’re looking for their first ACC title since 2019.

Duke vs Virginia Odds

Game Time (ET) Team Spread Moneyline Total
Saturday, March 11th Duke -2 (-110) -130 O 123 (-110)
8:30 pm Virginia +2 (-110) +110 U 123 (-110)

Duke is in line to be the #7 seed in the West Region, while Virginia is ninth in the East when it comes to the projected March Madness bracket. Both squads are +5000 long shots in the March Madness odds.


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Odds as of March 11 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Tip-off for this clash is set for 8:30 pm ET on Saturday, March 11th at the Greensboro Coliseum in North Carolina. The game is being carried by ESPN. The Blue Devils are pegged as the -130 favorite to win their conference tourney finale against the Cavaliers.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Analysis

The Duke Blue Devils have been firing on all cylinders in their last eight games, winning by an average of 12.8 points. Friday evening, they held a slim lead for much of the second half, before putting the game away late. Kyle Filipowski paced the team with 17 points, but balanced scoring was key in their victory. The top four scorers on Duke were freshmen.

They benefited from Miami losing power forward Norchad Omier just over a minute in with an injured ankle. Duke’s last two games has seen them score more points than any of their previous ten affairs (season high 96 versus Pittsburgh) and 85 against Miami. Nine of the Blue Devils last ten contests has seen them go over the listed 123 point total for this matchup, including their 69-62 OT loss to Virginia on February 11th.

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Analysis

The Virginia Cavaliers barely broke a sweat against Clemson to get to the final. They won by 20 points, which was their largest margin of victory in any game since late December. Jayden Gardner racked up game highs in 23 points and twelve rebounds. They’ve won their last two games without the services of Ben Vander Plas who suffered a season-ending broken hand last Saturday.

In their previous tussle, Virginia won in OT by shooting 52% as a team, which was far better than Duke’s 45% clip. These two teams are very closely matched, however, as they’ve both taken four games apiece in their last eight meetings, dating back to 2018. Despite being the higher seed, Virginia still finds themselves as the underdog in this one. Their last ACC title came one year before Duke’s last, in 2018.

Duke vs Virginia Prediction

Duke has been steamrolling, winning eight straight, while their counterparts are on their own four game streak. Their last loss was to the Cavaliers, though that game was marred in controversy when the referee after the game admitted Kyle Filipowski should’ve gone to the free throw line at the end of regulation, where the Blue Devils potentially would’ve won.

The Blue Devils have been racking up tons of points in recent affairs, and Virginia did the same against Clemson. Going over the 123 point total is the prudent play, with Duke squeaking out a victory as redemption.

Pick: Duke Moneyline (-130), Over 123 points (-110)


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