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FAU vs San Diego State Odds, Spread & Predictions for Final Four

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Updated Mar 31, 2023 · 1:59 PM PDT

San Diego State Aztecs guard Darrion Trammell shooting a free throw
Mar 26, 2023; Louisville, KY, USA; San Diego State Aztecs guard Darrion Trammell (12) makes a free throw during the second half against the Creighton Bluejays at the NCAA Tournament South Regional-Creighton vs San Diego State at KFC YUM! Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
  • Underseeds FAU and San Diego State meet in an NCAA Final Four semifinal game on Saturday, April 1
  • San Diego State is a 2.5-point favorite over FAU at 72,220-seat NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas
  • Read below for FAU vs San Diego State odds and prediction

South Region No. 5 seed San Diego State (31-6, Mountain West) is a 2.5-point favorite over FAU in an NCAA Final Four game at 3:09 pm ET Saturday at the NRG Stadium in Houston Texas. The Aztecs have won 14 of their last 15.

East Region No. 9 seed FAU (35-3, Conference USA) has won 11 in a row after upsetting Kansas State in the Elite Eight since a Feb. 16 loss at Middle Tennessee. The Owls are 7-0 SU at neutral site games this season.

FAU vs San Diego State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
FAU Owls +2.5 (-105) +128 Over 131.5 (-114)
San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-115) -154 Under 131.5 (-106)

San Diego State is a 2.5-point favorite over FAU in an NCAA national semifinal game in Houston. The Aztecs have won the previous two meetings, both in San Diego. The most recent was in 2002, the Aztecs’ 91-75 victory.

FAU is 24-11-1 ATS is tied with Pitt for the fifth-best cover percentage in Division I this season. The Owls’ plus-12.9 average victory margin is tied for seventh in Division I. San Diego State is 19-15-2 ATS, and its plus-8.5 victory margin leads the Mountain West. The Aztecs have covered all four of their NCAA Tournament games, the last two as an underdog, and are 11-4 ATS in their last 15.

The Aztecs are 14-22 against the over, and their last 12 games have gone under the total. FAU is 18-17-1 against the over.


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San Diego State Plays ‘D’

It is no secret how the Aztecs have put together their run. They have limited opponents to 37.4 percent shooting from the floor and 23.2 percent from three-point range during the last 15 games. Creighton shot 40 percent in the Aztecs’ 57-56 Elite Eight victory, but the Bluejays are the only opponent in the last eight to shoot that well. The Aztecs limited Alabama to 32.4 percent from the field in their 71-64 Sweet Sixteen victory; the Bluejays and Crimson Tide combined to go 5 for 44 from distance.

Rim protector senior 6’10” Nathan Mensah (6.1 points, 5.9 rebounds) is more than his numbers. He is a consummate role player — he guards the basket while his teammates score. Mensah has 63 blocked shots this season, and he was there to keep Alabama and Creighton at bay down the stretch. His block on Jahvon Quinerly’s drive sealed the victory over Alabama. He had three blocked shots and made the Aztecs’ final basket against Creighton, and had two defensive rebounds on two of the Jays’ final three possessions.

Guard 5’10” Darrion Trammell (9.9 points, 3.1 assists) and 6’2″ Lamont Butler (8.7, 3.3) average a combined three steals per game while harassing on the perimeter. Big guard Matt Bradley (12.5 points) is the Aztecs’ leading scorer, but they do not need him to score. He has 35 points on 13 of 42 shooting in the NCAA Tournament. Trammell has come up big, with 21 points against Bama and 12 including the game-winning free throw against Creighton.

FAU Relies on Balance

Much like San Diego State, the Owls have made it this far by relying on a balanced offense and consequential big man who can protect the basket. Athletic sophomore guards 6’4″ Johnell Davis (13.9 points, 5.5 rebounds) and 6’2″ Alijah Martin (13.1, 5.2) are the leading scorers for a group that likes the perimeter. Martin has a team-high 70 3-pointers, sophomore guard Nick Boyd (8.9 points) has 64, and the Owls average 9.6 three-point makes per game, 14th in Division I. They shoot 36.5 percent from distance.

Sophomore center Vladislav Goldin (10.3 points, 6.6 rebounds), at 7’1″ the only starter over 6’4,” had 14 points, 13 rebounds and two blocked shots in the victory over Kansas State. He helped negat the WIldcats’ inside presence and had a hand in stifling Keyonte Johnson, who had nine points on seven shots before fouling out. The Owls have outrebounded each of their four NCAA opponents and are plus-9.8 on the glass, much of that coming with the 41-16 edge against K-State. They have 52 offensive rebounds in the tourney.

FAU vs San Diego State Prediction

Underseeded underdogs meet. Entering the tournament, Florida State (No. 13 NET) and San Diego State (No. 14 NET) and  were ranked higher in the NCAA Net rankings and in KenPom than Baylor, Duke, Kansas State, Kentucky, Virginia, Indiana, Michigan State, Miami and Northwestern. So at least someone saw these teams coming, even if the NCAA Selection Committee was asleep at the wheel.

The game will be decided on the perimeter, where FAU thrives on offense and San Diego State bristles on defense. The points are tempting, especially for a cover-champ like FAU, but the Aztecs’ defense will prevail.

  • Pick: San Diego State -2.5 (-115)
  • Season CBK: 50-29 ATS


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