Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Odds, Spread & Picks (Feb. 4)
- West Coast powers Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga meet for league supremacy on Saturday, February 4
- Saint Mary’s is a 3.5-point home favorite against Gonzaga at the University Credit Union Pavilion
- Read below Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s odds, analysis and prediction
No. 18 Saint Mary’s (20-4, 9-0 West Coast) is a 3.5-point home favorite over Gonzaga in a West Coast Conference game at 10:30 pm ET Saturday on ESPN.
The Gaels have an 11-game winning streak, tied for second-longest in Division I, since a Dec. 18 home loss to Colorado State.
No. 12 Gonzaga (19-4, 8-1) has won 14 of its last 15 games and leads Division I in field goal percentage. The Bulldogs have won 15 of he last 18 games against Saint Mary’s, including four times in the WCC tournament finals.
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga Bulldogs | +3.5 (-110) | +140 | Over 137.5 (-115) |
| Saint Mary’s Gaels | +3.5 (-110) | -165 | Under 137.5 (-105) |
Odds from DraftKings on Feb. 3.
Saint Mary’s is a 3.5-point favorite against Gonzaga in a series the Bulldogs have dominated for a decade.
Gonzaga is 8-1 SU and 5-3-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, 11-2 SU and 8-4-1 in the last 13 and 15-3 SU and 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18. The Gaels beat Gonzaga 67-57 as a 10.5-point underdog in Moraga last season. Four of the last five in the season have gone under the total.
Saint Mary’s is 15-8 ATS this season, 9-5 at home. Gonzaga is 7-14-1 ATS this season, 1-5 on the road. The Zags are 11-11 against the total this season, and the Gaels are 10-13 against the over.
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Saint Mary’s Keeps Rolling
The Gaels are 14-1 since coach Randy Bennett made one tweak in his starting lineup, promoting freshman 6’3″ guard Aidan Mahaney to replace sophomore Augustus Marciulionis (Sarunas’ son).
The change was motivated by a three-game losing streak to Washington, New Mexico and Houston, all by five points or fewer, and the Gaels have lost only to Colorado State since. Mahaney leads a balanced scoring attack with 14.8 points per game and has 56 threes.
CBS Sports College Basketball Analyst Jon Rothstein had high praise for Saint Mary’s freshman Aidan Mahaney comparing him to some of the all time greats that have come through Moraga under Randy Bennett 🏀🔥 #ALLIN pic.twitter.com/z0dx7RgxZi
— West Coast Elite (@wceua) January 31, 2023
Mahaney, playing through foul trouble, had 17 points and was the go-to guy down the stretch in a 68-69 victory over San Francisco on Thursday, Bennett’s 500th victory.
This, after a 17-footer with 0.3 seconds remaining for a 56-55 victory at BYU last Saturday. Against the Dons, the Gaels survived a season-worst 32.7% shooting night, an even-lower 23.5% from distance, by making 32-of-37 free throws.
Unselfish veteran big Mitchell Saxen (12.5 points, 8.3 rebounds), wing Alex Ducas (12.4 points, 61 threes) and guard Logan Johnson (12.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists) thrive in a deliberate offense that relies on screens and cuts that can coerce a defense into mismatches.
Gonzaga Plays Efficient Offense
Gonzaga has led Division I in field goal percentage in three of the last four seasons (it was second the fourth), and again finds itself on top at 51.1% two-thirds of the way through this season.
Led by 6’10” senior Drew Timme (21.1 points, 60.4% shooting), the Zags are shooting above 50% for the 5th-straight season. Timme had 15 points in an easy 88-70 victory over Santa Clara the last time out Thursday, when he scored his 2,000th point to become the third player in school history to reach that plateau.
Gonzaga weave into a middle ball screen. Drew Timme with the savvy vet move of holding off Bediako by his arm on the post seal just long enough so he can’t get to Watson on the lob. Strawther’s man can’t tag or else it’s a wide open 3. Good design and execution. pic.twitter.com/9aJSQ5mTt3
— Steven Karr (@SKarrG0) February 3, 2023
The Bulldogs lost three of their first eight games, against ranked Texas, Purdue and Baylor. They have won 14 of 15 since, including a 10-point win over Alabama in Birmingham.
Athletic 6’7″ forward Julian Strawther (14.6 points, 6.9 rebounds) is projected as a late first-round pick in the 2023 NBA draft, and veteran forward Andre Watson (10.9) and guard Rasir Bolton (10.8 points) contribute.
The Bulldogs have had not typically strong play from the point — remember Andrew Nembhard, Jalen Suggs, Josh Perkins? Timme averages a team-high 3.5 assists per game.
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Prediction
Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s do things differently, but it is hard to tell it by the numbers. Each is in the top 15 in Division I in scoring margin, in the top 35 in rebound margin and three-point field goal percentage, and in top 55 in fewest turnovers per game.
The Gaels are in the top-10 percentile of spread coverage this season while Gonzaga is in the lowest-10 percentile. Saint Mary’s won in Moraga last season but is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS as a favorite in the series the last decade. This is not a vintage Gonzaga team, but the trends are hard to ignore.
Pick:
- Gonzaga +3.5 (-110)
- Season. CBK: 31-17 ATS
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Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
