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Hofstra vs Duke Odds, Spread, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, Dec. 12)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Dec 12, 2023 · 6:40 AM PST

Duke Blue Devils forward Mark Mitchell reacting after a miss
Dec 9, 2023; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Mark Mitchell (25) reacts to a missed shot during the second half against the Charlotte 49ers at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
  • The #21 Duke Blue Devils host the Hofstra Pride on Tuesday, Dec. 12
  • A big home favorite, Duke has a 22.3 average margin of victory at home this season
  • See the Hofstra vs Duke odds, picks, and betting trends for tonight’s game at Cameron Indoor Stadium

Coming off a 24-point rout of Charlotte, the #21 Duke Blue Devils (6-3, 5-1 home, 4-5 ATS) host the Hofstra Pride (6-3, 1-2 away, 4-4 ATS) on Tuesday night in Durham. The Pride had their five-game win streak ended at Saint Louis on Saturday (71-68) and enter Tuesday’s game as massive 15.5-point underdogs.

Tip-off at Cameron Indoor Stadium is scheduled for 7:00 pm ET.

Hofstra vs Duke Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Hofstra Pride +15.5 (-110) +900 O  145.5 (-110)
Duke Blue Devils -15.5 (-110) -1600 U 145.5 (-110)

The Blue Devils are -1600 favorites on the moneyline in Tuesday’s NCAA basketball odds and the game total is sitting at 145.5. Duke is 4-5 over/under this season, while Hofstra is just 2-6 O/U.

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Despite a recent two-game road skid, which featured losses to Arkansas (80-75) and Georgia Tech (72-68), the Blue Devils (+2071) remain a top-ten favorite in the March Madness odds.

Duke Demolishes Charlotte to Get Back in Win Column

After a rare two-game losing streak, which has only happened one other time in the past two-plus seasons, Duke took out its frustrations against the Charlotte 49ers on Saturday. The Blue Devils opened up an 18-point lead before halftime and cruised to a 24-point victory.

The lopsided win was in spite of leading scorer Kyle Filipowski, who had just five points on 2-of-10 shooting (though he did grab 13 rebounds and dish out four assists). Freshman guard Jared McCain had his best game as a Blue Devil, pacing the team with 21 points on 7-of-13 shooting from the field. The 21-point outburst matched his production from the previous three games combined.

YouTube video

As a team, Duke shot a phenomenal 10-of-18 from three, and they now sit 92nd in the nation in three-point percentage at 35.4%.

Ie-cold shooting was largely responsible for the setbacks to Arkansas and Georgia Tech. Duke was just 6-of-22 from three against the Razorbacks (27.3%) and  4-of-16 against the Yellow Jackets (25%).  Their opponents hit three more triples in each game. Duke wound up on the losing end despite committing fewer turnovers and getting more production from the free-throw line in both games.

Filipowski, who started the season as second-favorite to Purdue’s Zach Edey in the Wooden Award odds, has faded to a distant third (+1050), behind both Edey (+150) and Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson (+285). The sophomore is averaging 17.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 2.4 APG, and 1.8 BPG while shooting exactly 50% from the field.

Hofstra Has Win Streak Broken by Billikens

From Nov. 20 to Dec. 6, Hofstra reeled off five straight wins, covering the spread in four. But that streak came to an end on Saturday when the Pride let an 11-point lead slip away at Saint Louis, falling 71-68 to the Billikens in a game that came down to the final possessions.

Leading scorer Tyler Thomas put up 29 points, but wasn’t terribly efficient, going 10-of-25 from the field and 3-of-12 from three.

YouTube video

As a team, the Pride were an uncharacteristic 7-of-25 (28%) from three. On the season, they sit 41st in the nation in three-point percentage at 37.9%.

When the Pride aren’t hitting at a high clip from deep, they are going to struggle to score. They are a relatively small team that tends to get out-rebounded, sitting 281st in offensive rebound percentage and 223rd at the defensive end.

Hofstra vs Duke Prediction

This is not a favorable matchup for Hofstra. Few teams come into Cameron Indoor and light it up from three, and Filipowski and the Blue Devils are going to win the battle on the boards. When Hofstra faced Edey and Purdue last season, they were run out of the building 85-66 (despite shooting 40.9% from three) and only grabbed one offensive rebound the entire game.

That said, this is a solid, veteran-laden Hofstra team that added 6’10 Jacco Fritz from Canisius to help combat a size disadvantage that plagued them last season.

Duke has been plagued by slow starts this season. They trailed at the break in all three of their losses, and also trailed 199th-rated La Salle at home (35-31) in late November. Staring down an 8.5-point first-half spread against 101st-rated Hofstra, I am betting on the Pride to keep the game competitive for the first 20 minutes.

Hofstra vs Duke pick: Hofstra first half +8.5 (-106 on the FanDuel app

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

  • ATS: 9-9 (-0.81 units)
  • Player props: 1-0 (+0.87 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

 

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