Indiana Looking for First Win as Underdog Getting 7.5 Points at Maryland

Wide shot of Maryland's Xfinity Center basketball court
The Maryland Terrapins are unbeaten on their home court since March 2019. Photo by Amerikasmuse (wikimedia commons).
  • No. 15 Maryland (11-2) is unbeaten in eight home games this year and laying 7.5 points to the visiting Hoosiers
  • Unranked Indiana (11-2) has lost its only road game so far this season, and it wasn’t close
  • Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below

NCAA scheduling allows a few early-season conference matchups here and there, allowing teams to garner a taste of what’s to come. But now, there’s nowhere to hide in the Big Ten, which begins conference play in earnest this weekend.

For No. 15 Maryland (11-2, 8-0 home) and unranked Indiana (11-2, 0-1 road), that means a date with one another on Saturday at the Xfinity Center (12pm ET, Jan. 4) on Maryland’s campus in College Park.

The Terrapins haven’t lost at home yet this season, helping them place among the top 10 in the 2020 NCAA Tournament title odds at the moment. They opened as 7.5-point favorites for Saturday’s contest.

Indiana vs. Maryland Odds

Team Spread Over/Under at BetOnline
Indiana +7.5 (-110) Over 138 (-115)
Maryland -7.5 (-110) Under 138 (-115)

Odds taken Jan. 3.

Home Cooking

Maryland has rattled off eight-straight home wins to start the year, seven of which came by 14 or more points. Their one close call, a 59-58 win early last month, was against a respectable Illinois team.

Indiana has found comfort in the friendly confines of Bloomington’s Assembly Hall, where the Hoosiers are 9-1 (losing to a streaking Arkansas team).

Unfortunately for Indiana, though, they’ll be on the road for this one. The Hoosiers lost their only “true” road game (they’ve won a pair of neutral site games) in blowout fashion against Wisconsin.

Quality Losses

Both of Indiana’s losses have already been mentioned above, but just to quickly reiterate: Wisconsin (8-5) got off to a slow start but is a storied program that is still likely to have a strong season. All five of the Badgers’ losses have come against teams ranked in KenPom.com’s top 100, including three in the top 50.

The Hoosiers’ other loss, by seven points to Arkansas, came against a Razorbacks team that is 11-1 this year.

As for Maryland, it dropped a pair of road games against No. 21 Penn State (11-2) and Seton Hall (9-4). Those losses came by a combined 11 points.

ATS Analysis

With such a talented team, Maryland has been a victim of bloated point spreads a few times and is only 5-8 against the spread this season. Right now, the Terrapins are on a four-game ATS losing streak and are 2-4 as single-digit favorites.

Indiana is 7-6 ATS, which doesn’t bring much confidence with it, either. They’ve lost four of their past five ATS, but it’s important to note that they have not yet been an underdog this season.

For what it’s worth, Indiana won its final five games ATS as an underdog last season.

Decision Time

Maryland’s body of work so far is very strong, especially at home. But recent results (a one-point win, consecutive losses and a blowout over a weak opponent) have been less impressive.

The Terrapins might be the better team, but Indiana should enjoy the cushion of receiving points for the first time this year and use that to at least keep this one close — if not come through with the win.

Pick: Indiana +7.5 (-110)

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